Downhill Capital

Frauds, fads, failures & melting ice cubes.

Long quality, short crap.

No advice. DYODD.

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

$NWPHF CH:NWRN bulls cite 8M treatment-resistant schizophrenia patients as TAM. The drug that "treats" TRS — clozapine — is prescribed to just 4% of qualifying US patients. An add-on to an underutilized drug in a narrow label is not an 8M patient market. 📢 new substack article

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@BlackScholesMan "Sole US tungsten/moly supplier to defense" is real but priced for perfection at ~17x EV/EBITDA. Margins actually compressed in 2025. IPO proceeds go straight to repaying insider loans. CEO's satellites narrative is IR fluff, not in the numbers yet.

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Practical_Opt @Tiefseher German Jim Cramer

[Grizzly Research @ResearchGrizzly]

We are Short Ottobock SE & Co. KGaA $OBCK $OBCK.DE

How Hans Georg Näd er’s Margin Loan and Russia Business Endanger Public Shareholders

https://t.co/E0UhoUt8Vh

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Marcelo12650938 $BAK Rerate Potential:
Prolonged Hormuz closure (3-6mo) could drive 2026 recurring EBITDA to ~$1.8-2.8B+ via sustained high spreads. From ~$5/share today, bull case rerate to $8-15+ on better leverage & cyclical recovery. Debt overhang & cycle risks remain key.

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

Gonococcal arthritis

[Keith Siau @drkeithsiau]

This is my swollen ankle - started this weekend and needed crutches to do my ward round. Glad to have made it to Milan, but I’m now paying the price! PS what’s my diagnosis? 😂

[Keith Dalrymple @Jonathan_Keith2]

Why wouldn't $RXO be up 8% as it is about to report a terrible quarter, has no cash and needs to do battle with a new competitor - none other than $AMZN?
A short write up. Link in comments.

[Callisto Research @callistores]

NEW REPORT: We are short Sportradar Group AG $SRAD, a self-styled "Sports Integrity" leader with ties to illegal gambling, sanctioned parties, criminals, and a completely fake regulator. We believe Sportradar’s ties to illegality pose an existential threat.🧵

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

Is anyone else invested in $MAN or $RANJY and interested in comparing notes?

[Brian Willott Farms @BrianWillott]

They should change the name to "Strait of Schrödinger". It's both open and closed at the same time.

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@FalkWegerich @wslflo @checkitoutFRG @nurJoe_justJoe @z_adam @M_Steppan Securitas mit SDM SE vergleichen?
Ungefähr so wie McDonald's oder Restaurant Brands International mit BreakBurger GmbH (i.L.)?

[Dr. Parik Patel, BA, CFA, ACCA Esq. @ParikPatelCFA]

As the great Warren Buffett once said:

“The best investment is not in yourself. It’s in a bankrupt shoe retailer that pivots to AI datacenter operations.”

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Hussein_52106 @RistoHamilton so in upcycles debt juiced returns, but in downcycles the same fixed interest burden accelerates losses, covenant stress, and refinancing risk.
2/2

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Hussein_52106 @RistoHamilton Operating leverage on debt = how much fixed interest cost makes a cyclical business’ equity swing more than its underlying EBIT; for a company like $BAK, high fixed costs + debt mean small swings in volumes/margins cause outsized changes in net income and equity value. 1/n

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

$BAK bears are pricing this like a pure naphtha play. It isn't. 64% of capacity runs on domestic propane, ethane & ethanol — zero ARA exposure. The Hormuz cost shock the market is discounting hits maybe 36% of their book. Prob-weighted EV ~$8.40 vs $4.59. Market is sleeping.

[JohnB @Nichola77431904]

$BAK $PBR posting this again for the clowns who can’t do math. Naphtha is not most of their feedstock, and even if so, the spreads are all that matter for BAK making $ and spreads are 400+. Manipulation down is IG4 associated, not because of clucking Naptha.

[Dario Perkins @darioperkins]

Oil trading like a shitcoin

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

Surprise! 🚨 New post just dropped — it's about $HALO, and yes, I know that's absolutely not what you signed up for. Bear with me, I promise it's worth it.

https://t.co/DLyJYJ6xs7

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Practical_Opt @Boersenhaendler Circus ist Substanzlosigkeit pur, die Firma wird mit einer EK-Quote unter 15% ohne Kapitalerhöhungen nicht auskommen.

Kursziel: Innoscripta: max.€30, weiterer Schmerz beginnt ab Ende lock-up

Circus: €2

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

@Practical_Opt @Boersenhaendler Ganz unterschiedlich geartete Fälle- Innoscripta IPO war Kasse machen auf Kosten der Öffentlichkeit mit Mittelzufluss nur an Hohenester und Meyer (€218m @ €120/Aktie zum IPO)= kackfrech.

1/n

[Downhill Capital @downhillcap]

Surprise! 🚨 New post just dropped — it's about $HALO, and yes, I know that's absolutely not what you signed up for. Bear with me, I promise it's worth it.

https://t.co/DLyJYJ6xs7