Myself, @Hdflem, and @s_cavestany have been accepted into @fdotinc Canopy cohort!
We started @FanSharesapp to give people with real conviction a way to back their beliefs in their favorite athletes.
The next 5 weeks are going to be fun.
Thanks to @hthieblot@adriannalakatos
@stefwynendaele@stefwynendaele we are building the world's first regulated exchange for users to trade shares of athletes. We had 1k users in under 3 weeks on our beta. can dm for more info
@EverManGX We are building the world's first regulated exchange for users to trade shares of athletes. We had 1k users in under 3 weeks on our beta. can dm for more info
@dara_venture We are building the world's first regulated exchange for users to trade shares of athletes. We had 1k users in under 3 weeks on our beta. can dm for more info
@wassiecapital We are building the world's first regulated exchange for users to trade shares of athletes. We had 1k users in under 3 weeks on our beta. can dm for more info
This is one of the best pieces written on where prediction markets are headed as well as where they’re failing.
The framework of naive traders, info buyers, and hedgers is exactly right. And the diagnosis is spot on that platforms optimizing for naive traders inevitably slide toward dopamine-driven products with zero lasting value.
But I think there’s a fourth actor missing from this framework and it’s the one I’m building for:
The conviction trader
Someone who isn’t naive, isn’t hedging, and isn’t subsidizing information from others.
They’re a sports fan who has watched a player since college, studied their game, tracked their development and has a genuine long-term thesis on that athlete’s trajectory.
There’s no marker that lets you express a multi-year view and profit from being right over time. This is the gap we’re building FanShares to fill: perpetual athlete event contracts where price discovery comes from the crowd, not a sportsbook. Instead of binary yes/no bets that expire, fans trade shares in athletes across their entire careers, with prices driven by market demand and intrinsic value tied to on-field performance.
Why does this matter beyond just “another sports product”?
Because it actually solves the information value problem this post raises. When thousands of fans are pricing an athlete in a liquid market every day, you’re generating a real-time signal on perceived player value. Something that has genuine utility for teams evaluating trades, sponsors allocating deals, media companies deciding coverage, and leagues thinking about scheduling.
That’s societal information value that doesn’t exist anywhere today.
The current prediction market model treats sports as content for short-term gambling. We think sports is one of the few domains where retail participants actually have edge — where the “naive trader” isn’t naive at all, they’re just underserved. The fans who called underrated gems like Amon Ra St.Brown or Puka Nacua aren’t dumb money. They’re informed capital with no market to deploy it in.
Three weeks into the #FanSharesBeta and we have 1,000 users!
25-30% of our users trade even on non-game days.
15% of FanShares users average 10+ trades per day.
300% increase of market volume during game days.
Much, much more to come.
this Jaguars vs. Bills game has seen a lot of player movement, our users are selling a lot of shares of Parker Washington as he has a potential concussion. #fansharesbeta#jaguars#bills