Dan Polner

Tech Business Advisor, unabashed $TSLA skeptic

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@StanphylCap Only cost $20mm

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@StanphylCap https://t.co/gGFmQ1pc9N

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@zerohedge The US Treasury is the next Lehman Brothers…

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@Benshooter Does Adam Jonas still value the solar business at $50B? (Asking for a friend.)

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@rdd147 I'd wait for the $SPCX buyout of $TSLA at $420...

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@commonsenseplay @rdd147 @nytimes https://t.co/M3NONNdthx

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@rdd147 Were they his shares? lol

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@Super70sSports Now do Jalen Brunson...

[Amjad Taha أمجد طه @amjadt25]

Reading Trump's post confirms one thing: he still doesn't understand the Middle East. In this region, destroying some military hardware while leaving the regime, its ideology, its missile program, its proxies, and its terrorist networks intact is like announcing victory over ISIS because you blew up a few pickup trucks. The Islamic regime terrorized the region long before it needed a serious navy or air force. It hit the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Israel, and others with drones, missiles, militias, and proxies. Hezbollah still exists. The networks still exist. The ideology still exists. The regime still exists.

Then you call it a win and potentially hand the same regime hundreds of billions of dollars? That's not "peace through strength." That's paying the arsonist after he burned down the neighbourhood.

Your friends expected leadership. Your enemies expected pressure. Instead, your friends got disappointment, and your enemies got a deal better than they could have dreamed of.

And please stop selling Iran's economic misery as a newly created success story. Iran's economy has been a wreck for decades, and ordinary Iranians have suffered for 47 years. You didn't create that reality you just tried to package it as an achievement.

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@rdd147 That may be true but don’t underestimate the willingness of creditors to deny it. They’re more like 10-15 years away from being bankrupt.

[Roger @rdd147]

Automakers and Consumer goods stores warn the US is weeks away from major shortages and price hikes as companies have been completely locked out of access to semiconductors, and have used up supply.

Industry leaders are largely pointing fingers at $MU who received massive government subsidies before cutting off access to American businesses. The US is likely headed into the biggest inflationary period on record as businesses ration product through a shortage period $NVDA now claims will last until 2030.

The group warned US Treasury and Commerce in a note, that the shortage has collapsed the entire global supply chain, and time is up.

https://t.co/N08LZ29mKX

[Macro Alpha @MacroAlphaHQ]

Everyone is cheering Elon becoming the first trillionaire like it is a win for humanity. You are completely missing the math.

SpaceX being oversubscribed isn't a triumph of innovation—it is a late-cycle liquidity vacuum. Capital is fleeing to mega-monopolies because the cost of capital everywhere else is fatal.

If you think this is a structural bull signal, you deserve to lose your portfolio.

Save this tweet for 6 months from now.

$TSLA $SPY

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@MarketWatch Can't wait for SpaceX!

[George Noble @gnoble79]

SPACEX IS COMPLETE GARBAGE

Run, don't walk from this train wreck.

The numbers are right there in the S-1 filing for anyone willing to look.

SHAME ON YOU ELON MUSK

YOU BELONG IN JAIL

SHAME ON YOU @SECGov and @SECPaulSAtkins for allowing this to proceed.

SHAME ON YOU MORGAN STANLEY and TED PICK

SHAME ON YOU GOLDMAN SACHS and DAVID SOLOMON

SHAME ON YOU Bank of America, Deutsche Bank, UBS, Citigroup, JPMorgan, Mizuho, RBC, Macquarie, Wells Fargo, Allen & Co, Needham, Raymond James, Stifel, Cantor Fitzgerald, Soc Gen, Mirae, Santander, ING, and BTG Pactual.

Have you no shame? Have you no decency? Have you no honor?

Or is it all about the fees?

And the index providers are making it even WORSE.

Nasdaq changed its rules so SpaceX auto-qualifies for the Nasdaq-100 after just 15 days of trading triggering up to $60 BILLION in forced buying from ETFs alone. S&P Dow Jones Indices is now consulting on whether to fast-track S&P 500 inclusion for unprofitable mega-cap IPOs of this scale.

To Adena Friedman at Nasdaq and Catherine Clay at S&P Dow Jones Indices:

You are about to force every retirement account in America to become EXIT LIQUIDITY for the most overpriced IPO in history.

This is a legally sanctioned wealth transfer from Main Street to Wall Street. The public will be badly injured and EVERY ONE of you knows it.

You all belong in jail for this.

David Solomon and Ted Pick, grow a pair and do the right thing and stop this epic travesty.

How are you able to sleep
at night?

You and your firms are PATHETIC.

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@rdd147 Golden Age of Fraud

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

🚨Michael Burry just said Elon Musk and Nvidia's deal is built on fake numbers.

Burry published a detailed breakdown calling the entire structure "Fugazi", his word for fake.

He is alleging that billions of dollars in Nvidia chips are being hidden off balance sheets, and that American retirees are unknowingly funding the whole thing.

Nvidia, the world's largest AI chip company sold $5.4 billion worth of its most advanced GPUs, the GB200, to a company called Valor.

Valor is not a real operating business. It is a special purpose vehicle, a shell company created specifically to hold these chips and nothing else. Nvidia also invested $1.9 billion of its own money directly into Valor on top of the sale.

Those 100,000+ chips are now physically inside xAI's data center. xAI is Elon Musk's artificial intelligence company, the one that builds Grok. xAI is using every single one of those chips right now to run its AI models.

But here is what Burry is flagging.

Neither Nvidia nor xAI owns those chips on paper. Valor, the shell company holds legal title. That means $5.4 billion in GPU assets do not show up on Nvidia's balance sheet as inventory.

They do not show up on xAI's balance sheet as assets. They are legally invisible to both companies.

Nvidia gets to book the $5.4 billion as a completed sale and record it as revenue. xAI gets full use of the chips without owning them. And the risk disappears into a shell company in the middle.

Now here is where American retirees enter the picture.

Valor needed $3.5 billion in debt to fund this structure. Apollo provided it. Apollo is one of the largest asset managers on earth with $1.03 trillion under management and $834 billion specifically in private credit.

Apollo raised the $3.5 billion, packaged it into debt securities, and sold those securities to Athene.

Athene is Apollo's own insurance company. It sells fixed and indexed annuities, retirement savings products, to ordinary Americans.

When a retiree buys an Athene annuity, they believe their money is sitting in safe, stable investments. That money is now inside a structure funding Elon Musk's AI data center.

The numbers inside Athene are most alarming.

Athene holds $74.2 billion in reserves. It has moved $217 billion in assets into a captive insurer based in Bermuda, meaning those assets sit outside normal US insurance regulation and oversight.

Of the entire portfolio, 34.7%, equal to $103 billion, is classified as Level 3 assets.

Level 3 is an accounting classification that means there is no observable market price for these assets. No outside party can independently verify what they are actually worth.

The leverage sitting on top of those unpriced assets is 16 times.

Burry's says:
Every step of this structure is technically legal and publicly disclosed. But the entire thing was deliberately engineered across 8 to 12 steps to move credit risk off balance sheets and away from any market pricing.

- Nvidia books the revenue.
- Apollo collects the fees.
- xAI gets the computing power.
- And retirees sitting at the bottom of a 16x leveraged Bermuda insurance structure, holding $103 billion in assets with no market price carry the risk without knowing it exists.

[Heidi @blockchainchick]

The SpaceX IPO is the most brazen retail fleecing in modern market history.

NASDAQ has REWRITTEN the index rules specifically for this listing. The 10% minimum free float requirement: gone. The 3 to 12 month seasoning period before index inclusion: cut to 15 trading days. Companies with small floats can now be weighted at 3x their actual float.

Translation: every passive index fund, every 401k, every pension is about to be force-fed SPCX whether they want it or not.

And what exactly are they buying?

Class A shares carrying ONE vote each, while Musk holds 93.6% of the Class B super voting shares at TEN votes each. That gives him 85.1% of voting power on a 42% economic interest. He cannot be outvoted. He cannot be removed. CEO, CTO and board chairman simultaneously.

For reference: Zuckerberg controls 61% of Meta. Buffett 35% of Berkshire. Musk: 85.1%.

SpaceX is also claiming "controlled company" status, exempting it from needing a majority of independent directors. Shareholders waive the right to a jury trial. They waive the right to class actions. Mandatory arbitration only, courtesy of an SEC rule change pushed through on a party line vote last September.

$1.75 trillion valuation. $80 billion raise. Largest IPO in history.

The rules of the game were quietly rewritten so one man could extract maximum capital from retail while answering to no one.

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@Commuternyc @ShortingIsFun You don’t say?🤣🤣🤣

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@CNBC He got his man in 2020 with J Powell and look how that turned out!🤣

[Dan Polner @dpolner]

@ghost_scot @StanphylCap They liken them to the IRA...