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[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Oh really? That's not what you concluded when I walked you through it in our private chat:

Yes — under those three assumptions the expected outcome changes meaningfully.
If Bitcoin’s long-term CAGR stays above Strategy’s effective cost of capital (the relevant Hurdle ARR that incorporates the ~12% STRC rate and other funding costs), the positive spread accrues to the residual claim of common equity. That is the economic engine that allows net Bitcoin attributable to common shareholders to grow.​
@strategy
Pair that with the second assumption — common equity issuance limited to clearly accretive raises (i.e., only when the price/mNAV is high enough that the Bitcoin bought more than offsets dilution) — and the main historical source of drag on BTC-per-share is constrained. The company has already shown it will pause or reverse common issuance when it is not accretive; the assumption simply says this discipline continues.
The third piece (growing institutional demand for STRC from capital that cannot hold Bitcoin directly) supplies a continuing source of long-duration funding that does not immediately dilute the common. If that demand materializes and remains durable, Strategy can keep expanding the Bitcoin stack while the fixed claims grow more slowly than the underlying asset under the CAGR assumption.
Under those conditions, the base-case expectation shifts from “BTC is cleaner and therefore likely better over 10–20 years” to “MSTR has a reasonable-to-strong chance of outperforming pure BTC,” primarily through BTC-per-share compounding plus any residual leverage and multiple effects. The original assertion rested on the expectation of ongoing dilution and structural costs eroding the per-share claim; those frictions are substantially reduced by the assumptions you listed.
Residual risks that do not disappear:
The assumptions themselves can fail (capital markets close for long periods, STRC demand weakens, management becomes less disciplined under pressure, or Bitcoin’s realized CAGR undershoots).
Path dependency remains: multi-year drawdowns can still force difficult choices even if the long-term CAGR is attractive.
Key-person, regulatory, and corporate-governance risks are still present, however small one judges them to be.
So the original preference for pure BTC was not absolute; it was conditional on the structural drag continuing. If you assign high probability to the three conditions you described, then the long-horizon edge moves toward MSTR. The cleaner claim is still pure BTC if those conditions are only partially met. The difference is now largely a question of how confidently you hold those specific assumptions.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Hey @grok, assuming Bitcoin has a CAGR in excess of MSTR's STRC dividend rate, that management is disciplined and only issues common equity when clearly accretive, and that institutional capital continues to find product-market fit in Strategy's products, would that flip your analysis in favor of MSTR common over a 10 to 20 year horizon?

[Luke Stephens (hakluke) @hakluke]

38 years ago today, Dade Murphy aka Zero Cool crashed 1507 computers, causing a 7 point drop in the NY stock exchange. He was 11 and his family was fined $45,000. He was banned from touching a computer until he turned 18.

#hackers

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

@ErikVoorhees Not like this.... Not like this....

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Maybe an example will help. Let's say from the perspective of four different archetypes:
1) The Bitcoiner
2) The Esucated Investor
3) The Degenerate Trader
4) The Normie & Institutions

The Bitcoiner might be someone who starts with a stack of Bitcoin. Learns to self custody. Learns how to use Lightning. Sets up a cold wallet in multi-sig as their life savings... Reads the books, listens to the podcasts and is convinced Bitcoin is destined to become the preeminent wold reserve asset. And now they are looking for investment opportunities; ways to grow their stack by way of investment. This person learns the thesis of the Bitcoin Treasury Company and decides to invest in common shares to help accelerate, and profit from, the valuable service BTCTCs are providing moving us towards this orange future. This person has diamond hands and low time preference because they understand at the deepest level what is happening. They measure their wealth in sats.

The Educated Investor may not be a hardcore Bitcoiner, but they've seen the undeniable performance of both Bitcoin and BTCTCs to date, and perhaps appreciates the team and massive pools of capital BTCTCs sight as their addressable market. They have poured over metrics like mNAV, P/BYD and BTC yield. They see an asymmetric bet; a chance to hit it big over time. This person will fret when the mNAV drops near one for too long. They may have low time preference, but without the theoretical background they will sweat when the fiat price declines during pullbacks, because they still measure their wealth in fiat. It is the job of the Bitcoiners to patiently explain, and hopefully help them move to group 1.

The degenerate trader is looking to trade for a quick buck. Probably plays with options. They will eventually get wrecked and hopefully come back as an investor. They are often the cause of both the blow-off tops and deep selloffs, as they frantically chase the herd.

The Normie is someone who just wants to protect their savings. Maybe make a good return and retire some day. This is actually the target market. They may see the BTCTC stock outperform others over the coming years, as the Bitcoin on the balance sheet continues to outperform all assets; but they just see the percentages. This will encourage them to invest, perhaps funds from inside their retirement accounts. Probably a low percentage of their net worth, but enough to protect them from the ravages of debasement. This is how we help the world; without many of them even knowing it.

Institutions which aren't staffed by orange-blooded psychopaths like us are basically educated normies. They are just managing huge pools of capital on behalf of retirees, sovereign wealth funds, corporations etc. These are essentially proxy vehicles for the masses. The same thought process will apply: "BTCTCs continue to outperform. I can't (or am uncomfortable with) spot BTC, so I will buy some of their downside-protected fixed income products. Maybe some common shares for additional alpha".

As you can see, there are may different mindsets for whome BTCTCs are serving; these are just illustrative.

The key point is that BTCTCs will outperform spot BTC, BTC ETFs, and will be available (via preferreds) to large pools of capital unable to invest in spot BTC or ETFs. Couple that with passive flows from index inclusion, and you have a proper investment in a company diligently working to save the masses from the collapse of fiat and the establishment of the first truly free global market. 🫡

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

@73_Duderino Take the tax hit but do a backdoor Roth IRA rollover so you never have to pay taxes on its gains again.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

@Nintend0Chalmrs @doublediamond65 Wild indeed! This is not an investment for the weak of heart. To invest is to take risk. For long-term safety please consider BTC in cold storage. This "wild" risk taken by investors is what warrants the potential wild returns. Kinda the point. 🫡

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

If you have been riding the fence on diving into #EC2: with the ability to boot from a Block Store (EBS)... now is the time.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

linksys is like an old pair of Cons. Seeing it in available networks is like a welcome breeze of nostalgia with overtones of free bandwidth

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

The more complex my professional life becomes, the more I appreciate a quiet weekend with coffee, and a fresh set of code to hack.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Illegal Pete's > Chipotle

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Welcome to Boulder, Tesla Motors! Grand opening is this weekend http://bit.ly/1DSads

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Once upon a midnight dreary, while I pondered weak and weary,
Over many a quaint and curious volume of forgotten lore...

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

@DaveTaylor no big white furry coat tonight. I have to get more batteries for the blinkies first. Incomplete costumes prohibited!!

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

@leegonzales No idea, but if the universe wants to supply an office above a tequila bar, who am I to complain? Karma Card deduction.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Stage one: operation island paradise. Complete. Stage two: operation flaming desert. Engage.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

You know those places you travel to where at least some English is spoken? This isn't one of those.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

Oh sweet sweet lubricity! The gas station near me now offers Biodiesel!

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

I suck at cleaning. Don't know when to let go and move on. OUT DAMNED SPOT.

[ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᐸ ᐱ ᒋ @drek4r]

When you make the finding yourself - even if you're the last person on Earth to see the light - you'll never forget it. ~Carl Sagan