Drew.Baker

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

lol $GRPN is a buy here.

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@IranArmyStan @grok is this real or AI

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

$XNET core biz is no longer a corpse: subs growing, overseas audio/live ripping, op income flipped positive. Probably worth $10.

But the real setup is Arashi.

Last quarter mgmt said realized Arashi gains could “drastically strengthen” the balance sheet and create more options for shareholder return.

This quarter: they’re actively monitoring the stake because of 1940 Act risk and may adjust holdings to keep investment securities below the threshold.

Translation: the market is treating Arashi like trapped Chinese holdco noise. Management is telling you it may have to / will become cash. To get below 45% of assets — the threshold — they’d have to sell 3/4ths of it….

And that they’ll return money to shareholders…

China risk is real, but easy to underwrite against ~$18/share book + a core biz worth maybe ~$10/share.

Stupid asymmetric with neater catalyst and a good print.

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

Groupon 8-K:

1. Restructuring / cost cuts — up to 400 positions globally, $7–13M in pre-tax charges, $20–25M annualized cost savings, and FY26 adjusted EBITDA guidance raised to $75–80M.
2. COO resignation — Jiri Ponrt resigning effective July 10, 2026. (job well done)

20M EBITDA on analyst base cases of 15x EV/EBITDA = 300M equity value boost

I think they can go further but was highly encouraged with the “talent density” comment. They just need 10 cracked SWEs.

$GRPN

[Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets) @NickNemo17]

OPEN MESSAGE TO GROUPON MGMT:

@dusenn @josefburyan @Groupon

The feedback I keep hearing on $GRPN is that management is wary of doing a true platform facelift because past changes created friction with loyal users.

I get it. You’ve had a bunch of hiccups including log-out of un-tech-savvy users.

But I’d argue the tradeoff is optimizing around the customers you already have while leaving a much larger customer base on the table.

Loyal customers are wonderful and they deserve respect. We are not abandoning them. We are going to figure out how to make their experience better and transition smooth.

I think we can minimize short-term friction while maximizing long-term value.

2.3x retention is not evidence that the experience is optimized today. That should be 4.3 like peers. @ranakash I know you know what this would do. Setting that as the goal and user growth as a bonus, let’s discuss how to achieve it.

The current paid marketing/conversion metrics may look good not because the UX is optimal, but because Groupon is sitting on a gold mine. The same gold mine Pale Fire saw early.

Most Groupons are bought by a highly loyal repeat base. Maybe even more concentrated than the 80/20 rule. That is strength, but it can also hide the size of the missed opportunity. The platform saves people money. There should be a larger population of loyal/religious users.

A modernized app + cleaner checkout + less login/payment friction + refreshed discovery could unlock a totally new cohort of customers. 2/3rds of that can be improved with zero threat to existing loyal users as the concern is friction to begin with.

And the marketing angle writes itself:

Groupon is revamped and the deals are better than ever.

Not just “Mother’s Day deals.”
Not just another promo code.

The marketing strategy today is built for one-offs. @ryancohen ‘s view on marketing for Ebay is directionally right albeit extreme for Groupon.

What people need to know is Groupon is back. Not that Mother’s Day is here.

This does not need to be reckless. Launch a new look in beta. Let users opt into the new experience. Let legacy users use legacy mode. Test conversion, retention, AOV, repeat purchase, checkout completion, and paid-channel ROI side by side.

I think long-term $GRPN investors would back bold, startup-like steps here. The quarter-to-quarter crowd may not — and god bless. They are not a shareholder base worth pandering to. I know the team agrees.

The real opportunity set is extremely under-appreciated. Consumers need deals. 90% of America and Europe is struggling.

I am asking you to consider why college students love thrifting and are not loyal Groupon customers right now.

That can change with a new look and UGC/influencer marketing. I’m big and well connected on TikTok. Influencers have bought the stock because of my conviction on this story.

In the coming days, I will be design a new look to show the vision I see as a shareholder.

Roll Groupon.

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

This may be the most important interview I have ever done.

@nicknemo17 used the latest AI tech to analyze private credit by going loan-by-loan.

He alleges the truth is VERY different than what is being marketed.

Nick could be the next Michael Burry or Harry Markopolos.

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@ZachSchumaker Did he tap?

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@FNGgtMMA I did too

[💸 @FNGgtMMA]

@nbastats where did Kuminga last rebound go he clearly got?

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@ben_honick @MiamiHEAT He’s scared of Zubac he doesn’t even want to shoot

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Worth mentioning again

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@DKSportsbook @DraftKings TT:@bakethebooks

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@ESPNBet NEVER bet on ESPNbet! voiding entire same game parlays after the game is over because Amari was inactive. @stoolpresidente

[Not Jerome Powell @alifarhat79]

Don’t forget to add Zelensky as a dependent when filing taxes next year

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

@theallinpod @altcap @Reddit @DavidSacks more information on the sunscreen take and what other products @friedberg avoids/ thinks should be banned please and thank you

[Crypto Tea @Cryptotea]

Someone asked AI to turn each country into a villain 👇🧵

[Alex Weprin @alexweprin]

Probably the most amazing thing about Donald Trump’s tax returns that I’ve spotted so far is that in 2015 he recorded $12,000 in expenses related to the New Jersey Generals… the football team he owned that went under in 1985.

[Drew.Baker @drewbaker09]

#Volaris flight had a mechanical failure in takeoff

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

The Pentagon failed its fifth consecutive annual comprehensive audit, with auditors concluding that its internal systems and processes for tracking weapons and finances were not sufficient, per Reuters this week.