Dan Dreyfus

Speculator

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@TomLoughrey_LFE A few years ago, Tom did some consulting work for our firm on a project where we were analyzing sensitivities on the post-COVID supply response from the big 3 shale basins. Looking back on his work, he was 200% SPOT ON! #satisfiedcustomer

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@PauloMacro Digesting this imminent supply into a weaker macro might create volatility. But once this supply is digested, the cupboards are bare for the rest of the decade.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@PauloMacro 1) Kamoa Kakula expansion
2) Tenke expansion
3) QB2
4) Quellevaco
5) Oyu Tolgoi underground

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@PauloMacro Copper will reprice significantly higher in the coming years to incentivize new supply.

Capital intensity of >$30k ton means that $10k copper price won’t work to bring the supplies we need.

But be careful short term. 5 major projects / expansions are imminently starting up.

[RNC Research @RNCResearch]

WATCH:

Biden Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is left completely and totally dumbstruck after being asked a series of simple questions on China and the production of critical minerals.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@YellowLabLife Some great food for thought here… Very well written too!!

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@AdamLundin5 My condolences Adam. I have so many great memories of your dad, and am remembering some great moments with him at the Lundin Group offsite many years ago. He definitely had an amazing life and an amazing family.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@aggresivevalue 100% agree. Valuation gap makes no sense. Mon Valley and Gary are top BFs in US. Big River and the new mill fed by pig iron and DRI from captive iron source will be the 2 lowest cost EAFs in America. Amazing footprint when the transition is done.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@biancoresearch Great chart. Would be interesting to see where credit spreads were during these events as a proxy for leverage stresses in the system. Credit seems to be totally unaffected by what’s going on in equities at the moment.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@GavinSBaker Return on capital for energy companies has been down for so long, that most (including myself), forgot what up even looks like!

If this chart is the beginning of a new ROCE cycle, oil can fall $25 and you’ll still do well I think.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@GavinSBaker What’s tricky about oil is a decline in demand from a slowing economy may be more than offset by a large increase in demand from the re-opening / int’l travel rebound as COVID burns out.

Unique moment where a softer economy may coincide with rising oil demand.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@GavinSBaker @LesliePicker Excellent interview

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@TraderPamplona Awesome call yesterday on sniffing out today’s face ripper!

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@TERM31740965 Yup.

Bunch of gold bugs are in denial… we reached record negative real rates alongside the biggest balance sheet expansion in history… and gold still managed to underperform. Yuk!

Best of luck when the taper begins and real rates normalize!

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@A_Milewski Yup.

Assets with no intrinsic value served as sponges that mopped up the orgy of liquidity injected over the last 2 years.

They are all at risk. Structurally bullish but cyclically bearish here.

Stuff the world needs: oil, carbon credits & green metals seem much better.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@joshyoung @hkuppy @StockJabber Oil will see triple digits. Just not sure what the first digit will be…

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@AndrewRangeley He lambasted an analyst for overstating share count by 2% which pales in comparison to his screw up of selling his Canadian and Australian iron assets for nearly nothing at the bottom of the market. He cost his shareholders billions! The guy is way overrated. #peaklourenco

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@YellowLabLife Agree.

The testing at this point is a mistake.

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@COMETcapital @GrantMBeasley Some fair points here.

But if a once in a century pandemic coupled with historically unprecedented CB balance sheet expansion couldn’t get gold to rally, then what will?

Or worse, what happens to gold when Covid burns out, interest rates normalize and QE ends?

[Dan Dreyfus @dreyfd]

@actarealia @GrantMBeasley The majors trade at 15x - 20x consensus EPS at spot gold.

Most majors have ~10 years of “good”reserves.

So you’re paying >15x earnings for <15 years of reserves.

Not even getting your capital returned at spot.

But if gold falls, it’s a horror show!