Driftwave

IC Design House 半導體工程師。喜歡資產配置與理財策略。喜歡比特幣與MSTR。
期望能做到老玩到老。

版上任何金融與財務相關討論與轉載都並非投資建議
NFA+DYOR

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

@NICOLASYANGX 酷斃了 又來一次
川總：我搞定了👍
伊朗：沒有喔 不是這樣喔 …..

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

Saylor大哥說這種話是會讓人傷心失望的！

[Good Evening Crypto @AbsGEC]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Michael Saylor Tells Audience —

“I said to YOU to never sell your Bitcoin. I never said that THE COMPANY wouldn’t sell its Bitcoin.” 😳

Is this the bottom signal, or a black-swan developing in the shadows!? 🤔 💭

Comment Below & Follow For More!! 👇👇

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

很棒的觀念
有時候我似乎對孩子們太嚴格了

[才谷 | 哪吒商业评论 @realCaigu]

2005 年，迈克尔·乔丹发表了这篇演讲，告诉父母们如何培养孩子的自信。

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

近日心得（2/2）
我在6萬美元的價位加碼了MSTR 成本價略低於120美元
理由是目前已經到了六萬前低支撐 我還是不認為會再現四年週期這件事 所以這裡會是加倉的好選擇
但相對的 若是在未來三個月進一步走低 那麼我可能會選擇在比特幣價格跌到4.2萬美元時再加倉一次MSTR
這樣差不多就做完熊市功課了吧！

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

近日心得（1/2）
最近一週大崩盤啊！
本來預期clarity法案要過關前會有買盤進場 但最近一個月的反應似乎不是如此
比特幣價格更受到降息預期影響 當然美股熱度有吸籌的作用也是有影響的 但昨天的大崩盤比特幣也是跟跌 說明比特幣走勢就是美國市場主導 然後現在就是空到不行的熊市

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

讓我們來看看川總的實力吧！

[Eleanor Terrett @EleanorTerrett]

🚨NEW: President Trump says his administration is building a “future-proof” digital asset market structure that can’t be undone by “crypto haters.”

This marks the first time the president has publicly weighed in on crypto market structure since March.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

希望Saylor老大的判斷是正確的囉

[The Bitcoin Historian @pete_rizzo_]

JUST IN: BILLIONAIRE MICHAEL SAYLOR JUST SAID THE BOTTOM IS IN AND THAT "#BITCOIN SUMMER" IS COMING FAST

CLARITY ACT WILL PASS

BANKS WILL START BUYING BTC

STRC WILL BUY "2-3x" THE DAILY MINED SUPPLY

CALM BEFORE THE STORM 🚀

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

Peter Schiff 這句話倒是說得對
這似乎是在說Saylor在做一個豪賭
因為若是比特幣��跌到四萬五萬之類的水位
STRC會完蛋的鬼故事就會出現

Saylor似乎在用行動表示
就是比特幣沒有更低點會出現了
就是沒有四年週期這件事了

[Watcher.Guru @WatcherGuru]

JUST IN: Peter Schiff says Michael Saylor is "running out of cash."

"What will you sell next to keep the wheels from falling off?"

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

這個解釋不錯 說明MSTR買回debt其實是合理且��明的操作

[Bitcoin Asset Research @stonychambers]

Big updates explained:

8% discount to par: Strategy basically sold a covered call (convertible is a bond plus a call) on its common stock $MSTR and then bought it back after the price and IV collapsed. ie - They shorted something and then bought back lower. Note also that this is a profitable trade that is NOT taxable.

0.7% BTC Yield: By retiring debt that was convertible to shares, they kind of did a share buyback, which lowers the denominator of the BTC per share number and increases the metric’s magnitude.

Cash Reserve usage: True demonstration of optionality. If the prefs don’t crash, they just showed that the market no longer cares much about the reserve in supporting the prefs.

Big bitcoin buy and $STRC issuance: news from last week.

Less debt: transitioning to a fully equity model. Much more optionality.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

金玉良��

[Plan C @TheRealPlanC]

https://t.co/fQNTzBr1bK

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

就像我在Q1也是大幅加碼���MSTR一樣
看來是底了 大家穩住 ！！

[Phong Le @phongle]

13 of the top 15 institutional shareholders of $MSTR added to their positions in Q1 2026. Combined holdings increased 27%.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

Note for 小津津(2/2)

生活有很多的憂慮跟煩惱
但是卻可以靠自己的想像跟努力 讓一切回歸到最簡單的開心

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

阿公阿媽帶兩個小孩出去玩

好像回到了以���
只有我們兩個人的時間
但是多了很多可愛的小孩的氛圍

很奇妙 本來覺得房子不夠大要再買房
但小孩消失之後就覺得房子大的剛好

我愛你們

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

Note for 小津津(1/2)

這兩天在家裡 就是這樣坐���度過一個週末
好像回到成功一街舊家一樣
但是氛圍不一樣了 空氣中 耳朵邊 彷彿多了兩個小可愛會黏在裡面
可是摸不到聽不到 會不習慣
我知道你會擔心 所以我在家裡陪你
你也應該看得出來 其實我可能比你更在意小孩

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

這篇講出了Saylor沒有繼續大量使用MSTR來做ATM買幣的原因, 因為普通股一直增發的結果就是股價會越難往上增長
這個情況就與Saylor將MSTR定位成比特幣放大器的觀點互斥了

[Grain of Salt @Z06Z07]

Nobody asked, so here’s a $1,000 $MSTR thought experiment for @Strategy

The required mNAV for a $1,000 MSTR share price across different: BTC prices, share counts, capital structures

The key insight:

Share count matters more than most people realize.

Higher shares outstanding require materially higher mNAV multiples to sustain the SAME stock price.

Example: $1,000 MSTR

350M shares + $175K BTC only needs ~2.0x mNAV
500M shares + $175K BTC requires ~2.86x mNAV

The difference is enormous.

This is why denominator discipline (shares) matters.

After $STRC, mNAV stopped being just a valuation metric and became part of the funding mechanism itself.

The synthetic funding curve overlay shows where:

financing becomes destructive
carry breaks even
convex reflexivity returns

Everything is interrelated:
BTC price ↔ share count ↔ mNAV ↔ funding spread ↔ BTC/share accretion.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

很棒的估算
觀念上就是要把MSTR, STRC的未來預期成本也考慮進去
同時, 隨著ATM增發總量越大, breakeven的mNAV點位也會越高

[Grain of Salt @Z06Z07]

Expert-level post. I may have reverse-engineered what @Strategy is doing with $STRC and $MSTR.

This is not really a “preferred stock” story. It’s a synthetic internal yield curve for capital funding.

The real spread is NOT: STRC yield vs SOFR
The real spread is: MSTR market premium (mNAV) vs STRC funding cost.

Strategy itself has effectively identified ~1.22x mNAV as an issuance floor. But once you layer in an 11.5% STRC funding cost, 1.22x is STILL negative carry.

That means: (1.22 - 1.22) - 11.5% = -11.5%
So the system only works if BTC/share growth (their “BTC Yield”) exceeds the funding drag.

This is why the 10% BTC Yield (increase in ₿PS) target matters so much and is most likely a low number and easy for them to beat.

It’s not a random KPI. It’s a reflexive sustainability threshold.

The actual breakeven appears closer to ~1.33x mNAV:
1.33 - 1.22 ≈ 11.5%

Below that, the curve is inverted.
Above that, positive reflexive carry resumes.

The heat map below is effectively a synthetic sovereign-style funding curve for Strategy.
Red = destructive financing regime
Orange = weak equilibrium
Green = positive reflexive carry
Dark green = convex accretion regime

This is also why mNAV matters far more now than it did a year ago.

Before STRC, mNAV was mostly a valuation metric.
After STRC, mNAV became a funding spread.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

關鍵的一戰啊！GOGOGO~
希望接下來也都如期順利過關

[Bitcoin Magazine @BitcoinMagazine]

BREAKING: 🇺🇸 Senate Banking Committee PASSES the Clarity Act in 15-9 vote.

The bill now goes to the full Senate.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

在Strategy操作策略沒有變動之前 這是一個可以參考的數學模型

意思是 如果比特幣變成16萬美元
MSTR價格會上漲到約540美元

[David @david_eng_mba]

MSTR is not “1.5x Bitcoin.”

It is Bitcoin raised to a power.

Since Saylor’s first BTC buy:

log(MSTR) = a + 1.53 · log(BTC)

R² = 0.91
n = 71 monthly closes
β = 1.53 ± 0.14

Or:

MSTR ∝ BTC^1.53

That is not simple leverage.

That is elasticity.

BTC +100% does not map to MSTR +150%.

The power-law map is:

2^1.53 = 2.89x

That is +189%.

BTC -50% maps to:

0.5^1.53 = 0.35x
That is -65%.

This is the trade.

CAGR:
BTC 40.5%
MSTR 55.9%

Volatility:
BTC 60%
MSTR 91%

Max drawdown:
BTC -73%
MSTR -83%

Sharpe:
BTC 0.56
MSTR 0.49

Sharpe is return per unit of volatility.

MSTR made more money.
BTC gave more return per unit of risk.

That is not bearish on MSTR.

It is bullish for Bitcoin.
BTC is the base asset.
MSTR is the amplified wrapper.

It is Bitcoin compounded, at the cost of a deeper trough.
The price of admission is not 1.5x leverage.
The price of admission is conviction through full cycles.

Most people see the 2.89x upside.
Fewer price the full path required to earn it.

[Driftwave @driftwave86]

很棒的整理 清楚看到每次熊市回調的幅度跟時長 甚至模式也可比較

[Mark Harvey @thepowerfulHRV]

The "bear" market that never really came to bear.