Doug Rothschild

Good is the enemy of Great. -Jim Collins.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@FrankRossi I agree with your calculation of Wheaton and NPU, yet the results of the other Wheaton opponents will also factor in to their NPI number. No matter the math, my Thunder are solidly on the bubble and with no upsets will be on the outside looking in.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@FrankRossi Frank, Appreciate your math on Wheaton’s NPI. I wonder what your math is for the 25% chance? Seems like the probabilities are all math problems. The “other” system you reference is simply a simulation of 1,000 games to arrive at probabilities, also math.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@d3football @StaggAgain Hmmm. Barely….the second one lost to #1 and #9 (barely) and has won every game since but has dropped a spot every week. Since the 2nd and 3rd place teams play each other this week there will almost certainly still be just 2 ranked (if that).

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@LogHanRatings Sneaky!

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings I'm cool with margin of victory as a criteria. But when you start using one play among over 200 in a 1 score game to evaluate strength of teams, you lose me.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings That’s margin of victory, not a one off play. You are conflating two issues. You can’t cherry pick a play from a game that was the difference. That’s a slippery slope.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings That’s not what you said. You said the committee should consider Hail Mary passes (<10% plays) at end of games, That’s different than margin of victory being 10 or 50 pts. There is no way you can count one off plays IMO. I understand completely the current process

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings No. I disagree and you don’t know me but those who do know it has nothing to do with me being a Wheaton fan. I am all for metrics, and common opponents and, to a degree, margin of victory. I personally use the eye test a lot (as a former coach) but that’s also hard to measure.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings What you said was “for only 4 pool C spots you should certainly debate a win on a<10% odds kind of play”. I could not more strongly disagree. That is a slippery slope with lots of ambiguity. Basically negates any “Johnny Magic” from the equation no?

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Pritzkersgunt @LogHanRatings But if you are gonna split SOME hairs, you better split all of them. Cherry picking 1 close game doesn’t get you to the intended outcome. What about Trinity/St Johns, UWL/UWW, JHU/Muhl, etc.

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@TNoard COOOOOP! LET’S GO!

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@packiejay @The3rd_Division @football_ncc @WheatonFB @UWOFootball I don’t

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@AdelAbdulMehdi1 @packiejay @The3rd_Division @football_ncc @WheatonFB @UWOFootball @MiguelSanch86 Two years ago NCC played Aurora and beat them by 60. Aurora went on to win their league and go to the playoffs, where they lost to Wheaton by 40. Aurora is not the answer. And I hope they are in NCC’s bracket this year because it likely won’t be much better

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@IWUhoopscom I see what you did there! Roger, Roger!

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@kellybg479 Clare, Max and I will be there! #palestra

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@AndyStudebaker I dare you!

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@Cameady_ Sauce

[Doug Rothschild @drrothschild]

@IWUhoopscom Wish I knew how Wheaton Athletic contests get assigned but I don’t.