Dr.Sachin

There is a real person behind this account, who is, for the most part, just like you. Let's engage with respect.

[Arun Bothra 🇮🇳 @arunbothra]

In healthcare, success is not always measured by how many lives are cured. Sometimes, it is measured by how many people are helped to spend their last days with dignity, comfort, and compassionate care.

Bhubaneswar-based Bagchi Karunashraya Palliative Care Centre is one of the very few facilities in India providing free end-of-life cancer care.
In just over a year since its inauguration, it has cared for 1,220 hospice patients, made more than 8,500 home visits, and served 675 patients through its OPD.

A remarkable example of humanity in action 🙏🏼

[Narendra Modi @narendramodi]

Today, India takes a defining step in its civil nuclear journey, advancing the second stage of its nuclear programme.

The indigenously designed and built Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor at Kalpakkam has attained criticality.

This advanced reactor, capable of producing more fuel than it consumes, reflects the depth of our scientific capability and the strength of our engineering enterprise. It is a decisive step towards harnessing our vast thorium reserves in the third stage of the programme.

A proud moment for India. Congratulations to our scientists and engineers.

[Girish Bharadwaj @Girishvhp]

Karnataka Police issues binding guidelines to STOP misuse of FIRs over social media posts.
❌ No mechanical FIRs
❌ No police action in defamation cases without Magistrate’s order
✔️ Political criticism PROTECTED under Article 19(1)(a)
✔️ Arrests only as per Arnesh Kumar judgment
Constitution over coercion. Democracy over intimidation.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

NEW FILTER
A sterile book or article is one that leaves no descendants and generates no further work.

Almost all books are sterile.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Wisdom @TalebWisdom]

"Life isn't about getting forecasts "right"; it is about navigating the environment and controlling it." - Nassim Nicholas Taleb

[Buggy Human @SridharanAnand]

I wrote an essay after a long while.
Since it's that time of the year when forecasts gain fervour, I thought I'd rehash my views on such efforts.

https://t.co/OtwS0j12rA

[Buggy Human @SridharanAnand]

I don't like dumping longform content on X. Too Ackman-esque. But X doesn't allow previews of Substack links, so here's the entirety of my latest essay ...

Unknowable at many levels

There are ‘experts’ aplenty. They come in many flavours – economists, strategists, op-ed columnists, fund managers, analysts, podcasters, Kim Kardashians (the kind who are on CNBC because they are famous for being on CNBC). While it’s easy to recognize some as glib grifters, others come across as credible, their theories plausible.

To test if expertise is real or self-proclaimed, let’s conduct a thought experiment. Rewind the clock exactly one year, to December of 2024. Did any of these well-tailored oracles predict the following events of 2025:
· Trade war between the world’s two largest economies.
· 50% tariff imposed by US on India.
· Visa restrictions by US impacting India’s #1 export sector.
· Foreign portfolio investors selling roughly $20 billion of their Indian equity holdings.
· AI’s rapid advancement, from DeepSeek moment to IMO-Gold level intelligence.
· A mini-war closer home, where we struck targets deep inside Pakistan, both terrorist and military (pardon the tautology).
· Above strikes ending in their quick surrender rather than protracted escalation.
· Neighbouring countries imploding into anarchic radicalism.
· Largest personal income tax cut in history, with zero tax upto ₹ 12 lakh per annum.
· Substantial reduction and rationalization of GST rates.

No prizes for guessing that most, if not all, of the above developments were unforeseen. That is to be expected given how messy our world is and how buggy we humans are. However, that isn’t what this essay is about.

Let us add on a second thought experiment to the first. Imagine that there was an expert who foresaw all of the above events in December 2024. Could he have used this superior knowledge to accurately predict consequences? Would he have guessed that:
· Amidst trade war and real war, economy would deliver 8% GDP growth with 2% inflation.
· Amidst visa restrictions and AI explosion, white-collar hiring would stay robust.
· Amidst major tax cuts, fiscal position would remain sound.
· Amidst FPI exodus, Indian stockmarket would end 8-10% higher over 2025.

Herein lies the true unknowability of the messy world around us. It is not just that we cannot predict major events. It is that, even if we could, we have no idea how their consequences will play out. It is impossible to reliably unravel a chain of future events in a manner that is useful in real-world decision making.

I used a 2-level thought experiment merely to illustrate that the world is unknowable at many levels. There is no reason to stop at two levels. Cause-and-effect plays out at many more levels, often with feedback loops tying certain consequences back to original events. In fact, in the real world, it is far from clear what the original causes are for whatever transpires around us.

Why table this essay now? It is that time of the year when forecasting becomes fashionable. The aforementioned gaggle of experts come up with “Outlook for 2026” in glossy formatting and fancy accents. This essay is a reminder to attach same importance to such forecasts as to film critics’ review of Dhurandhar. The only forecasts worth reading are the ones made by the same experts a year ago, primarily to enjoy a good laugh.

How to deal with an unknowable world, then? I can only repeat the same unoriginal thoughts that I have belaboured over prior essays. Preparation over prediction. Planning for a range of scenarios over counting on one playing out. Robustness over precision. Margin of safety over modelling. Carrying umbrellas over rain forecasts.

Every December, when I look back at the year gone by, I am surprised at everything that transpired. I didn’t see anything coming. As I look forward to 2026, the only thing I know for sure is that the world will remain unknowable, that too at multiple interconnected levels. I am reminded of a line from a timeless song by Gangai Amaran and Ilaiyaraja – விதி போடும் கோலங்கள் யாருக்கும் புரியாது.

Happy Unknowable New Year.

[Dr.Sachin @dryice_76]

@RedTapeindia Either your website is hacked or your employees are fraudsters.

[Patrick's AIBuzzNews @AIBuzzNews]

I deleted my entire digital footprint.

You can too.

Here's how I did it:

[Un-common sense @Random_Gyan]

1/N

#RBL Bank (CMP ~125/-) - My Big Contrarian Bet

Across the Fintwit community and general Investor base, there is extreme negativity around RBL Bank and as a result, bank and the co. has been written off by investors. I on the other hand see extremely attractive risk/reward

[Swann Marcus @SwannMarcus89]

My hottest take I’m 100% sure is true is that crime causes poverty rather than poverty causing crime.

There are no rich high crime areas but there are tons of poor low crime areas, indicating the crime/poverty correlation may be the opposite of what people assume

[Dr.Sachin @dryice_76]

@sandeep_PT https://t.co/hfIRyJVVy5

[Buggy Human @SridharanAnand]

I'm generally sanguine about our long-term outlook but those Saiyaara clips make me mildly worried about demographic dividend

[TradeLyf @tradelyfblog]

Where has this goldmine been all my life?

Why did I only find this today?

[ishmohit @ishmohit1]

Few concalls I always listen to in order to understand what is happening in the broader sector

CG power for Transformers and Industrials
Polycab for C&W demand
Godrej Properties to understand real estate dynamics
L&T for infra space
Ultra tech for cement space
Divis & Laurus for CDMOs
Eternal/Zomato letter to shareholders to understand what is happening in QSR & for Grocery demand (gives a trend of ordering)
SBI cards to get an idea about the Urban customer
Mahindra & Mahindra for Farm sector and Auto demand
Indian hotels and Interglobe aviation for Tourism demand

Disclaimer: no recommendation to buy or sell. Few concalls for top down sectoral research

[Buggy Human @SridharanAnand]

Is someone who finds humour in everything called a Joke of all trades

[Pavel Durov @durov]

I’m proud that Telegram has supported freedom of speech long before it became politically safe to do so. Our values don’t depend on US electoral cycles.

Today, other platforms are announcing they’ll now have less censorship. But the real test of their newly discovered values will come once the political winds change again. It’s easy to say you support something when you risk nothing.

[Dr.Sachin @dryice_76]

@AdityaD_Shah When you want to buy a stock, just visit valuepickr site and patiently read the discussions there from the start. It will save you some blunders.

[Intrinsic Compounding @soicfinance]

If you know how to:-

1) Read Financial Statements and differentiate between good & bad businesses.
2) Screen stocks + Spotting tailwinds.
3) Use a rough checklist.
4) Know how to roughly value businesses.
5) Use Stage Analysis + Simple Technicals.
6) Know how to allocate well + Have an exit system in place.

All that is left is taking the leap of faith and being confident enough to act. If process is right, results will follow!

[The Spiritual Trader @ArindamPramnk]

Valuation parameters in fundamentals to check in 5 ways:

1)PEG Ratio(My favourite)
2)MarketCap/Sales
3)Price/Book Value
4)Price/Earnings Ratio
5)EV/EBIDTA

[Finding Compounders @F_Compounders]

Balance Sheet Financial Statement Analysis