Stuart

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@FinanceTiger @HLInvest I did this a few months ago on a share and then re bought losing 1.8k in the spread, the broker called me "to check everything was ok" i told it was fine and that him and his mates could carry on laughing.....

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

Impact is worse than modelled due to the gap between physical and the hedge

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

https://t.co/tJoQSqoAwj
With the prospectus out have re run the #sqz numbers. The Impact of those missing barrels from triton & the collars on q3 and q4 very apparent. Fy27 fcf looks extemely strong

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@MiriamBrett We should do it another 50 times

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@blairanderson35 Good means less cold deaths

[Javier Blas @JavierBlas]

If your argument is: we should consume less gas, I do have respect for it. If instead it is: I rather buy gas overseas I know we need so I can virtue signal we're reducing local output, I have no respect for it.

For more, my @Opinion column from April ⤵️ https://t.co/dQQQp40lC1

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

UK desperste for gas and the politcial class have had to unwide insane policy. It will be even worse for them when the US reopens NStream and forces the inevitable supply of russian gas now under US transit control

[Politics UK @PolitlcsUK]

🚨 BREAKING: The Government has officially approved the Jackdaw gas field for North Sea drilling

It's the UK’s largest known untapped gas reserve and will start to supply gas to British homes and businesses from the end of this month

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

And to think "serious" remain wedded to europe https://t.co/rECFEVoZ1l

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@wheeliedealer Sqz still need the physical for the hedge, they shouldnt have hedged 100% production on triton. Am hoping that any upward oil price will be over and above in gas. Crazy to sell here with main market so close and the FCF so strong but its going to eb at the low end of guidance

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@MajestictraderA 🧐

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

From coms with IR id read this as triton news timed for the Main Market listing, CFFO held to protect the story, hedged to RBL covenant not ops risk, FPSO underfunded ($7.8m H1 vs $50m Bruce) as Dana's problem, bandwidth on M&A. Good dealmakers, weak operators

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

#SQZ rust bucket trition impact again. Crap update, flattered by high prices delivring great cashflow. I hold and continue told. Am frustrated third significant outage in about 18 months.

[selfside @selfside_uk]

Serica Energy $SQZ.L's trading and operations update cuts 2026 production guidance to just below 40,000 boepd from the above-40,000 August level, after Q3 output fell to 22,100 boepd on the Triton outage, but the $450m to $475m operating cash-flow target is unchanged. #SQZ

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

3. What influence does Serica have over Dana?
If they defer to Dana then there is no plan
4. Where in the CFFO range is the forecast, and at what gas price?
This should show much of the Triton hit gas has absorbed.
5. Are hedged oil volumes above actual oil production?

6. Did Spirit's assets come with hedges?
This what to see if their is gas. The 12,000 boepd of new Southern North Sea gas is there upside

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@IanCroasdale @BigBiteNow Yeah its fine, market wont like it, but its just cash from the escrow gone. New ocit rig though probs mean bettter terms. I am restful

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

There is also some very interesting bullish snippits specifcally Oci adding a 5th rig, straight after revised terms for block 9 🧐

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

"Price never lies" #KIST.Paying over escrow and probs the trough on capex had hammered nebt debt. Market wont like it although comftrtabld its a presentation problem, not a fundamental one.

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

#Kist which i also hold which i dont thinks quite as positve. Fundementals i dont quite as much as sqz as kist by my recokning has roghly 1/3 of Sqzs gas price torque per unit of market cap after tax, and about half before tax. Storage as kist this winter on the spread could be nuts.

[Stuart @ds_lyons]

@BobInvest Hi just found your write up and MoL on reddit, just wanted tk say thanks for a great bit of work