David Smith

American entrepreneur living in Moldova. I write a newsletter about Moldovan political and economic news each week in English at Moldova Matters.

[David Smith @dsmith098]

After months of delays, Moldova and Ukraine could begin formal EU accession negotiations as early as this month.

Also this week: Trump nominates a new ambassador to Moldova after a two-year vacancy.

The latest Moldova Matters roundup:

https://t.co/syR87zf5Bb

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Russian drones struck a residential apartment building in Romania overnight, injuring civilians.

Also, polls suggest that a majority of Transnistrians would support reintegration with Moldova.

This week's roundup:

https://t.co/fVSdXXOhxa

[Dmytro Kuleba @DmytroKuleba]

It is fair to say that neither Ukraine nor Russia is winning the war.

For Zelenskyy, this is good news: only yesterday, many were predicting his defeat. For Putin, it is bad news: no one seriously believes anymore that he is winning.

Yet Putin does not want to end the war. He seems to have five basic choices, but after four years of full-scale war, his core problem is clear: none of them gives him a guaranteed result.

A technological breakthrough? It takes time and offers no guarantee of a success.

A tactical breakthrough? Ukraine may adapt faster than Russia can turn it into strategic gain.

Mobilization? The Kremlin’s cheapest instrument, but one that raises the domestic cost of war.

A new theater of war? It may shift attention, but it does not guarantee a quick victory.

Nuclear weapons? Shock effect, but with uncontrollable consequences for Moscow itself.

So he will most likely do what he does best: buy time. He will move, in fragments, along the first four tracks and keep threatening the fifth.

Ukraine’s options remain unchanged: strike deeper, defend the sky, and strengthen resilience at home — politically, financially, and militarily. This has worked so far. It can keep working.

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Moldova says it wants to join the EU by 2030. Much of Europe quietly thinks that’s unrealistic.

The gap isn’t really about reforms or procedure - it’s about radically different assumptions regarding Europe’s future, security and time itself.

https://t.co/fpiv7g6CeX

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Thanks @AlexStLeger for letting me use your very helpful graphic showing the drone route!

[David Smith @dsmith098]

A drone flew the length of Moldova. Russia escalated messaging around Transnistria. Kremlin-linked hybrid campaigns spread across Europe. And Moldova somehow found itself in a Eurovision meltdown.

This week’s Moldova Matters roundup:

https://t.co/kcsJJhAFag

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Former Deputy Mayor Irina Gutnic is accusing Mayor Ceban of political abuse, illegal practices, propaganda networks funded through municipal enterprises and more.

I unpack the growing scandal and why this matters politically for Ceban and MAN.

https://t.co/vat5R7ktLn

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Romania’s government collapsed after PSD joined AUR in a no confidence vote.

Also in this week’s roundup part 2 : the EPC summit, new parliamentary rules, inflation, fuel prices, and Moldova’s debut at the Venice Biennale.

https://t.co/rvkluU93zp

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Moldova participated in a major East-West prisoner swap involving Russia and Belarus - securing the return of 2 SIS operatives captured on a failed clandestine mission.

Also this week: updates on Shor's A7 network, Sheriff's German companies and more

https://t.co/UQxlSCLB5X

[David Smith @dsmith098]

A newly formed US nonprofit is organizing a privately funded congressional delegation (CODEL) to Moldova.

The organization has little visible operating history, unclear funding sources, and links to past Moldova lobbying efforts.

https://t.co/tiVhsc9J9O

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Press freedom is collapsing globally, but Moldova is moving up.

Ranked 31st in the world - ahead of the US and all EU candidates - Moldova is a rare success story in a very bad year.

But the system behind that success is fragile.

https://t.co/sYhqOC3GsY

[Alexander St. Leger @AlexStLeger]

Brief summary of the prisoner swap brokered by U.S. envoy @johnpcoale at the Poland-Belarus border with Romanian coordination:

Russia gets:
🇷🇺 Alexander Butyagin (Russian archaeologist arrested in Poland)
🇷🇺 Butyagin's wife
❓One Russian agent arrested for sabotage in Poland

Poland gets:
🇵🇱 Andrei Pochobut (Belarusian-Polish journalist, held since 2021)
🇵🇱 Polish priest Grzegorz Gawel
🇧🇾 One unnamed Belarusian who cooperated with Polish services

Moldova gets:
🇲🇩 2 Moldovan SIS officers held in Moscow

Pardoned and allowed to leave Moldova:
🇲🇩 Alexandru Balan (former deputy chief of Moldova's SIS, convicted of spying for Belarusian KGB)
🇷🇺 Nina Popova (Russian national arrested in Chisinau last summer)

https://t.co/HsAOE4lBER

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Moldova pardons and swaps a convicted ex-intelligence chief to bring home two detained SIS officers.

Also in this week’s roundup: storms, security tensions, and escalating drone risk in Romania and Moldova.

https://t.co/qlXcMShg42

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Vladimir Plahotniuc has been sentenced to 19 years in prison for his role in the “Theft of the Billion.”

This isn’t just another corruption case - it’s the first time Moldova has held the man who captured the state legally accountable.

https://t.co/SRRdQvx8V7

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Picnics in the graveyard. Fractures in parliament.

Moldova’s unique “Easter of the Dead” marks a moment of reflection - but underneath, political alliances are breaking apart and energy pressures persist.

https://t.co/l4lHTaEWrC

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Over Easter, Moldova had a busy week.

From energy instability and regional tensions to ambitious (and controversial) plans to overhaul local government, plus big moves in foreign policy - there’s a lot to unpack.

https://t.co/tf4xqK7P0n

[David Smith @dsmith098]

New on Moldova Matters: a guest post by Cristina Panaguta.

A powerful personal reflection on April 2009 - memory, identity, and Moldova’s unresolved past.

https://t.co/eoTC5Ac2TY

[David Smith @dsmith098]

New report: how the Shor network uses crypto, A7, and a ruble-backed stablecoin (A7A5) to move money across borders and fund political operations.

https://t.co/GZddwu3otN

[David Smith @dsmith098]

Guest post on Moldova Matters:

The 2009 pro-European revolution was real - but it was also a stolen opportunity.

Daniel Vodă on why 2028 is Moldova’s make-or-break moment for EU accession.

https://t.co/gx1VZHOygs

[Alexander St. Leger @AlexStLeger]

Moldova also learned this lesson — Russia banned its wine on sanitation grounds in 2006 and 2013, both at moments of Western pivot.

This was challenging short-term but ultimately forced export diversification away from Moscow. Does Yerevan follow Chisinau's example? Or Tbilisi's?