Duke of Wall Street

Experienced Wall Street equity research analyst. CFA. Focused on finding multi-baggers. Advice is my own views, please do your own due diligence.

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@mikealfred You understand that at time closing balances (imbalances) are published? Not rocket science

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@endless_frank You are out of your mind if you think their cost to mine is $40k

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@akramsrazor Back into Amelia rev recognized this year it will be about $42m. Amelia run rating 110m, the delta between their guide and 24 rev is what they didn’t recognize in 2024. Organic biz is declining lol

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@KobeissiLetter Tons of debt is a bit misleading. Raised $3bn of debt and $14bn of equity since beg of November. Company’s balance sheet is actually less levered then it was before the recent buying spree

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

When @TheRoaringKitty says he is long $ISPO 🔥🔥

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

$TCNNF $139m OCF, but $97m of that was due to uncertain tax liabilities increasing. Remove that tax adjusted FCF was $26.6m, which is still respectable. still not as good as $GTBIF. Glad to see these businesses finally stabilize on the revenue side

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

$ISPO 1Q24
-Revenue beat 1.3%
-Adj EBITDA of 4.1m vs cons at $0.4m.
Portfolio optimization & stabilized demand drove occupancy rates to 78%, and gross margin 1200 bps higher q/q.
- reit FY rev and EBITDA guide
0.2x EV/gross profit, should be 2x

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

Interesting 20 bagger here.

$ISPO

It’s a travel subscription biz. They sign leases of high end properties and ISPO members can access those properties in a white glove end to end service. Leases ~600 properties, primarily in the US. Has ~13k members. Been around for 10+ yrs.

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

So many software companies have a TAM that is so much smaller than mgmt thinks, which is growth curve plateaus so early. These businesses need to realize that and emphasize on shareholder returns. Nothing wrong with MSD growth, dividend and buybacks, especially with high GM co’s

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

Reminds me of the office episode where he gets on stage with a 30 point plan in 30 days lol

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

This $SBUX CEO interview on CNBC is brutal, guy just blowing smoke, needs to be canned

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

This $SBUX CEO interview on CNBC is brutal, guy just blowing smoke, needs to be canned

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

At some point $CMG is going to be a great short

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

Don’t get why $CRI can’t find momentum. Last 8 years has average 30% ROE. Share count down from 50.4m to 36m. Been around for 100 years. 4.5% div yield after just raised div by 8%. Has traded at 38% discount to SPY for last several years, don’t get it

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@ronjonbSaaS Isn’t #1 a bad thing? Part of the envy of Tesla was that it was not common, so status symbol in some way. if everyone has a Tesla, not as cool anymore?

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

What’s bear case on $YOU?
-Guided to 30%+ FCF growth, which would be $260m+
-just bought back 4.4m shares (had 150.8m, now 146.4m)
-consistent special dividend and ordinary dividend payer now
-20% top line growth

At $19, has EV of $2,094m, or ~7.8x EV/FCF.

What am I missing?

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@heroinvstr Mercedes Benz cancelled their contract with SOUN last year to use ChatGPT

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

@harrywetregina But thesis is that it opens up the platform - so goes away from pseudo time share to being a asset heavier version of an OTA. That transition would change the story

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

Interesting 20 bagger here.

$ISPO

It’s a travel subscription biz. They sign leases of high end properties and ISPO members can access those properties in a white glove end to end service. Leases ~600 properties, primarily in the US. Has ~13k members. Been around for 10+ yrs.

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

Once those are done, share count should start to decline more in line with repurchase amount, as issuance of shares from SBC is very minimal ~150k shares / quarter

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

1) voting power of subordinate is increasing and 2) buyback is not impacting float.

Going forward, it has 0.5m of deferred shares to be issued, and at current prices, 2.6m of contingent consideration shares.

[Duke of Wall Street @dukeofwallst]

$GTBIF has three share classes with diff voting structures. Subordinate (1 vote), multiple voting (100 votes) and super voting (1000 votes). During the year it converted 3.5m of super voting to subordinate, and bought back 3.8m. This is useful because: