I believe $ASTS will have 3B subscribers by end of 2028 after it is done launching a total of 90 satellites for 24/7 continuous coverage.
Assumptions:
- $3/month ARPU
- 30x P/S
- 3B subscribers
That gives a market cap of $3.24 trillion
That is about 114x from here or $8350/ share
Bookmark this.
My SpaceX valuation:
Using Rocket Lab’s $RKLB recent price-to-sales (P/S) multiple of roughly 56x:
applied to SpaceX’s trailing-12-month (TTM) revenue implies a SpaceX $SPCX share price of about $82.
$ASTS - SpaceX’s Starship can carry +100,000 kg into space
This means Starship could potentially hold 12 - 18 composite Bluebirds per launch.
1 Falcon 9 launch costs around $74M
1 Starship launch is estimated at $90M
A big boost to launch cadence when Starship becomes commercial sometime in 2027 if testing continues to go well. 🚀
BREAKING: Oracle, $ORCL, has signed a 10-year software contract with Pentagon worth up to $7 billion.
Of note, CEO Larry Ellison recently gave $45 million to Pro-Trump groups, and has numerous initiatives with the Trump administration including a $500 billion "Stargate" AI data center initiative and its central data security involvement with TikTok USA, per CNBC
Investors are worried about Oracle's credit:
Oracle's, $ORCL, 5-year credit default swaps (CDS) are up to a record ~203 basis points.
This means protection against Oracle's default now costs ~$203,000 for every $10 million of principal.
Oracle's CDS have more than QUADRUPLED since mid-2025, even surpassing the 2008 Financial Crisis peak.
The company’s borrowing costs are also rising, with the spread on its 6.7% notes due 2056 widening +8 bps on Monday, to 263 bps, and its 5.7% notes due 2036 widening +9 bps, to 205 bps.
Meanwhile, S&P Global Ratings downgraded Oracle to BBB- on July 9th, just 1 notch above junk, citing its rapidly growing AI-related spending.
Oracle's credit risk is at crisis levels.