Durable Moat

Researching compounders and stocks with asymmetric upside. Content = informational. Not financial advice. Always do your own research. Invest at your own risk.

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

“The best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return.” - Warren Buffett

[leki ⚔️ @mkfilko]

How did I know my best calls were going to run before they did? $BRUN $DGXX $SIVE $LPK $NBIS $LPTH $HIVE $EOS.AX

If you scroll my profile, you would think I like to do TA. But actually I love doing fundamental analysis as well.

I enjoy finding gems and digging through the company just as much as I enjoy the TA. That work takes weeks, and I'm super selective, that's why I don't spam tickers continuously. But when I do put out a thesis, you can bet that I have done the homework.

Here is my framework:

Question zero: enabler or beneficiary?

Before anything else.

Does this company build the foundation of the AI buildout, or just use AI to improve a service? Enablers are examples like semis, memory, neoclouds, photonics. The picks and shovels. Beneficiaries are fintech, SaaS, healthcare.

Enablers capture the most value right now because they can't be skipped. Demand is outstripping supply. The odds of picking a winner are higher. Beneficiaries fight in crowded markets, and at worst AI eats them. See the recent SaaS bloodbath. Pick enablers to be included in your portfolio want enablers.

1. Leadership.

Everything about a company stems from the top, the culture, the finances, the engineering, the technology, the customer relations etc.

> Does the founder have experience that actually maps to this company, or a resume from an unrelated field?
> How long has the CEO been in the seat?
> Is it founder led?
> Do they own real stock, and are they buying in the open market or quietly selling?
> Any history of missing their own guidance, related party deals, or restatements? And if so, why?

Unproven at this scale is fine if the credentials fit and their own money is on the line. Documented dishonesty is an instant fail.

2. Revenue Quality.

> Is it recurring, or a one time lump that won't repeat?
> Is it spread across many customers, or does one whale carry the whole number and could walk tomorrow?
> Where does it come from geographically? One country, or many? Heavy China exposure is a different risk than a diversified base across the US, Europe and Asia.
> Does the cash flowing in match the revenue being booked, or is the growth living on paper?

3. Revenue Growth.

This is crucial for finding 10 baggers

> Is there a credible inflection coming, or just a steady trailing rate?
> Is the capex already in the ground to support it? If not there are dilution risks.
> Is the customer pipeline named, or hand waved?
> Is there any guidance on revenue growth given by management?

A flat company with a real inflection ahead beats a steady grower with nothing coming.

4. Moat. The edge that protects them.

Extremely important to find winners in the long run as well.

> Is it an artificial moat, the Lululemon or Nike kind, built on brand and marketing that a competitor can erode with enough spend? Or is it something only this company can do?
> Switching costs, multi year qualification cycles, patents, sole supplier status?
> Has anyone with money and reputation on the line validated it? A named hyperscaler, a platform leader, a strategic investor on the board?
> External validators are hard evidence, not narrative. Counterparties don't sign off on weak operators.

5. Asymmetry. Risk to reward at today's price.

Most people get this backwards. It is not "the stock has run, I missed it." It's "does the upside still pay me for the downside."

> What's my floor? Cash on the balance sheet, trust value, book value?
> If the bear case hits, how far do I actually fall?
> If the thesis works, where does it go?
> Does the probability weighted upside still beat the downside by a wide margin?

A stock that has 5x'd and still pays you 2 to 1 is more asymmetric than one that has done nothing and pays you 1.3 to 1.

There are many ways to value a company, for me, the best way to value growth stocks is looking at their forward earnings/revenues and comparing it to peers. This is what I did with $BRUN to determine it was undervalued. Find your style.

6. Conviction Gap.

The space between what I can prove today and what the next catalysts will prove.

> What is genuinely unknown right now?
> Which way does the existing evidence lean?
> What specific event would convert the unknown into fact? When does that event happen?

A wide gap with evidence pointing the right way is the whole game. It means the market is pricing in uncertainty I have a reasoned view on. Thin analyst coverage isn't a red flag here. It's the opportunity.

I write the bear case out in full and pick at it before I ever post. If I can't convince myself first, I won't try to convince you.

To summarise
0. AI Enabler over beneficiary.
1. Leadership I trust.
2. Real revenue.
3. Forward growth.
4. A moat only they can build/is hard to replicate.
5. Asymmetry that pays me.
6. A gap with a catalyst to close it.

You can take these 6 criteria to come up with a composite score to decide whether you want to decide to invest in the company or not.

7. How I integrate TA into all of this.

The fundamentals tell me what to buy. The technicals tell me when.

The best setup is when both line up. Great fundamentals with a broken chart just means you bag hold while you wait, sometimes for years even! See $PATH. Arguably the right company, sadly the wrong tape. And this is huge opportunity cost.

So once a name clears my framework, I check the chart for confluence.

> Is the stock breaking out of a downtrend or a long consolidation?
> Are the EMAs stacked bullish, shorter over longer, all sloping up?
> Is there real volume driving the move, or is it drifting on nothing?

Each one on its own may be noise, but stacked together, they can be a signal. That confluence is the difference between catching the entry and riding the wave, or being early and bleeding.

Conclusion

I recently caught $HIVE, $EOS.AX and $LPTH using the fundamental and technical combination as laid out above, you can search my profile. It takes a lot of hard work and patience to find names like this. It's definitely an arduous but certainly rewarding process.

I typically don't share the full thesis as the engagement on them are typically lower, but an example of full theses are my articles on $BRUN and $SEYE.ST.

I really appreciate you taking the time to read this. I hope it inspires you to do your own fundamental analysis. These are just guidelines, and the actual research can go much deeper than this, but I think this is sufficient to give you a headstart! If you have any questions, please feel free to reach out.

Thanks once again :)

- Leki 🐵

[Rosanna Prestia, MBA @RosannaInvests]

🔥What's the smart money buying on $AAOI? Calls. Only calls. 😎

But the tell isn't the direction, it's the dates:

→ ~$550k in Jun 200 call sweeps (near-term)
→ ~$1.65M into the Jan 2028 350 calls (long-dated, deep OTM)

That January 2028 strike is the one to sit with. Nobody pays up for 18-month, way-out-of-the-money calls unless they think the optical buildout has a long runway and this name re-rates a lot higher.

Near-term momentum AND a multi-year bet, on the same name, same morning.

Flow isn't a thesis, and big prints can be spreads. But all calls, split across now and 2028? That's positioning, not noise.

Long $AAOI 📈

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Remember this.

-5% drops happen 4 times per year.

-10% drops happen once per year.

-20% drops happen once every 4 years.

Red is only temporary.

[Michael Sikand 🦑 @michaelsikand]

Anytime there is volatility in my photonics stocks.

I just think back to what Jensen told me.

The "silicon photonics technology capacity that we need is substantially higher than the world has today."

Don't think that's been solved in 3 months...

[Pepe Invests @pepemoonboy]

STOP PANICKING.

The point of being an investor is to INVEST.

When you buy shares of a company, you’re buying into its mission, its future, and its ability to execute over time.

Great things rarely happen overnight.

So when a stock you own drops 20%, 30%, or even 50%, ask yourself:

1. Has the mission changed?
2. Has the long term opportunity changed?
3. Is management still executing?

If the answers are the same, why are you panicking?

Most new investors make the mistake of buying stocks they don’t truly understand.

They follow hype, copy influencers, and chase momentum.

Then the first red day comes and they have no conviction because they never did the work in the first place.

Do your own research.

Have conviction.

Be patient.

Retire your entire bloodline.

It’s that simple.

[Luc @investingluc]

I’m not exaggerating when I say I don’t press a single button on my computer most days.

If you can identify emerging themes and have some patience…you’ll make more money with less stress in the long run.

Relax.

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

Thank you for this.

Jonah’s point being made is:

Capacity Expansion Economics

If AAOI spends:

* $120 million capex
* To add capacity for 100,000 transceivers/month

Then annual capacity added is:

100,000 × 12 = 1.2 million transceivers/year

If average selling price (ASP) is:

* $500 per transceiver

Then annual revenue capacity is:

1.2 million × $500 = $600 million revenue/year

At 35%–40% gross margin:

* 35% GM → $210 million gross profit
* 40% GM → $240 million gross profit

So basically what Jonah is saying:

“AAOI spends $120M once and gets the ability to produce products generating roughly $600M annual revenue and $210M - $240M annual gross profit.”

What he is really admiring is the incremental capital efficiency.

Very roughly:

$600M in revenue / $120M in capex
= 5x

So every $1 invested in expansion potentially supports about $5 of annual revenue capacity, which is attractive if demand remains strong and pricing holds.

A question to ask is: Is the $500 ASP sustainable once competitors add more 800G/1.6T capacity?

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

🚀 $ONDS Quick Valuation (June 8, 2026)

Current: $10.50
2026 Rev: $390M+
Backlog: $457M

Key Assumptions:

Rev: 2027 $750M | 2028 $1.2B | 2029 $1.8B

Multiples (P/S): Bear 8x | Base 12x | Bull 18x • Dilution: +20% annual compounding

Price Targets + Upside:

2027 → Bear $9-10 (0.9x) | Base $13-15 (1.3x) | Bull $20-23 (2.0x)

2028 → Bear $14-16 (1.4x) | Base $21-25 (2.2x) | Bull $32-37 (3.3x)

2029 → Bear $18-21 (1.8x) | Base $27-32 (2.8x) | Bull $40-47 (4.1x+)

Heavy warrant overhang (121M @ $28 + pre-funded) noted.

Bull case needs flawless execution.

DYOR! 💡

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

$RDDT

91% (!) gross margins (consistent) + user engagement/AI data moat

Strong ad revenue growth (72% YoY)

Growth is driven by ads, international expansion, and AI/content licensing (e.g., deals with Google/OpenAI).

Management has emphasized discipline on share-based compensation. Fully diluted count has been essentially flat or slightly up/down quarter-to-quarter. They even announced a $1B share repurchase program in early 2026, which can offset dilution.

2025 revenue: $2.2B (up 69% YoY)
2026 revenue estimates: $3.23B
2027 revenue estimates: $4.3B

*Base Case Mid/Late 2027 price target: $410*
(this assumes $4.3B revenue in 2027 at 20x PS = $86B market cap and 210M fully diluted shares)

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

1. A company called Valor created a special “middleman” bucket (called VCI).
2. This bucket raised $5.4 billion total.
3. Nvidia itself put in about $1.9 billion of its own money into that bucket as an investor.
4. The bucket used that money (plus more borrowed from Apollo) to buy a ton of Nvidia’s own latest GPUs.
5. Then the bucket leases those GPUs to xAI for training Grok AI. xAI pays rent over time, and the bucket pays back its investors and lenders.
In plain English: Nvidia helped fund a company that buys its chips and rents them out. This lets Nvidia record the full sale right away as revenue (which looks great for their quarterly numbers and stock price), while xAI gets the chips without a giant upfront bill.

It’s legal and helps build real AI power, but it’s fancy financial engineering that adds extra risk layers. Not fraud like Enron, but it shows how wild and interconnected the AI boom financing has gotten.

[BULL OF BRITAIN @BULLOFBRITAIN]

NAND is the BTC of 2026.

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

» Be Nvidia

» Invest $2 billion in Marvell

» Introduce them as “the next trillion dollar company”

» Stock goes up 40% overnight on remarks

Wild times!

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

$AAOI

Simple Valuation

Management guiding to approx $5.6 Billion annual revenue. (by mid-2027)

5-8x forward P/S feels like a balanced fair multiple.

Lets assume moderate dilution → 95M outstanding shares.

5–8x → $300–$470/share.

Price today: $157

Return Multiple: 1.9x - 3x

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

@aleabitoreddit thoughts?

[NINGI RESEARCH @NingiResearch]

We are short $SIVE.

A retail-driven pump built on speculative hyperscaler links, a fabricated bottleneck narrative, and a rumored volume ramp-up has driven a 1,800%+ rally in $SIVE.ST.

Insiders sold ~29M shares into it. Here's what they're not telling you.👇 Full report: https://t.co/4QEyuXQIQb

[Paradis Labs @ParadisLabs]

Btw, nothing's wrong with $LPK: -13.33% this week.

A handful of European Hedge Funds increased their short positions this week.

They don't realise that glass substrates are a crucial CPO / advanced packaging bottleneck.

And that $LPK is the monopolistic equipment supplier via LIDE (laser & etch process).

With a whopping >80% market share...

Order volumes to $INTC / Samsung / $GLW haven't even started ramping yet and volume estimates aren't included in their guidance.

This'll come later 2026, as 2027 is when glass substrate mass production inflects along with CPO TAM expansion.

Resulting in continuous follow-on orders for $LPK's equipment from major global players like Intel, Samsung, Corning, Onto etc.

Once the revenue starts flowing via the upcoming CPO ramp, more institutions & retail will buy in.

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

@kilex68 @ConstraintEdge @TimSeo282482 Lets do this very simply:

Management guiding to approx $5.6 Billion revenue.

5-8x forward P/S feels like a balanced fair multiple.

Lets assume moderate dilution → 95M outstanding shares.

5–8x → $300–$470/share.

Price today: $157

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

One Paragraph InP Thesis:

The explosive growth of AI data center clusters is slamming into a brutal bottleneck where exploding demand for high-speed optical interconnects requires much more Indium Phosphide (InP) for efficient lasers and active photonic components that silicon alone cannot provide, creating a tight oligopoly in InP substrates and epitaxy. Volume should skyrocket through 2026–2028.

What to buy?

$AXTI: Pure-play InP substrate leader aggressively doubling capacity twice by 2027 - highest asymmetric upside if the indium phosphide bottleneck persists.

Sumitomo Electric: The highest-quality InP substrate co with strong pricing power and Japan-based supply security — the most reliable long-term winner in a multi-year shortage.

$IQE: World-leading InP epitaxy (epiwafer) specialist turning AI photonics design wins into growth while their wireless business stabilizes - leveraged play on finished InP chips.

$TSEM (Tower Semiconductor): Leading silicon photonics foundry mastering hybrid InP-on-Silicon integration - best way to scale AI optics volume while still driving higher overall InP demand.

[Durable Moat @durablemoat]

The hilarious thing is Jensen Huang endorses $NOW as the future AI enterprise operating system.

“The entire manufacturing line will be operated by robots, managed by more robots, and the entire factory is a robot. They’re going to run on top of ServiceNow, and you manage them just like employees.”