Something important to point out: If $SPCX can build out the right side here and break out properly, it may have a shot at another leg higher. Even a move back toward the old highs—similar to what LinkedIn did—could offer a very nice trade.
The key is not anticipating the move. It’s waiting for the stock to develop a proper entry where the potential reward clearly outweighs the risk.
Investors are getting more optimistic about the market. A seven sentiment composite we follow is near its most negative reading possible. The only other time it has been as bearish (too much optimism) in the last five years was in June 2024. While the S&P finished that year higher, there was an 8.5% drop in July-August of that year that helped relieve some of that optimism. This is converging with a very low put volume reading (which is another sign of investor optimism), and a cycle headwind (see charts below). While our longer term sentiment readings aren't yet showing signs of a major top, a pullback should be expected to relieve some of the near term optimism.