Ea

[Ea @eab_mater]

A major contributor is that Canada suffers astronomical brain drain to the U.S., especially in the past decade.

Anybody with leadership qualities saw the writing on the wall and simply decided to leave. Bordering the U.S. and being very culturally similar (as much as their Boomers will deny this) makes it an even easier argument and process than for Europeans.

Pierre Trudeau enshrined multiculturalism and began it's propaganda campaign decades earlier. Canada didn't and doesn't have the underlying history that the European countries do which acts as a sort of innate trigger to resist replacement.

They were essentially propagandized into believe multi-culturalism was their founding myth, which is why there is essentially no opposition to it whatsoever.

@DanielTyrie is an oddity.

[Ea @eab_mater]

He very clearly ignores or minimizes the bear side. These are not small issues, either.

The company's current statement is that they'll hit 45 satellites on orbit in "early 2027". This would require them to more than sextuple their current cadence.

"This is macro/risk-off". Yes, largely; but ASTS is being uniquely slaughtered, and justifiably so. You can't claim otherwise. Deceptive earnings call statements, fundamental lack of retail trust, are all contributing.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@pistol_pete1440 @spacanpanman That's not including manufacturing cadence though. They can't produce 3 complete sats a month at the moment.

I do believe in this company but the misleading guidance has been brutal.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@pistol_pete1440 @spacanpanman Who's down the most in that group?
"Delays on 14-16"

They promised 5 launches by Q1 2026 last year. They aren't on track to hit 45 satellites until 2028.

[Ea @eab_mater]

There are many legitimate issues with the company and management. I also personally believe that the $40 stock price is largely due to momentum-based capitulation and SpaceX controlling the narrative, much of which is inaccurate and retail driven.

$130 was undeserved just like $40 is undeserved, even if some punishment is justified.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@endless_frank Oh I'm actually not thinking today lmao. Yeah you're right, thank you.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@retail_mourinho Your thesis is not intact.

Management claims 45 sats by early 2027. That would require them to sextuple their current cadence.

They are fucking with you.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@SpaceMobASTS Source: My Ass

[Ea @eab_mater]

@TMFAssociates @philliplyle410 They also claimed they'd have won Grain, and we can see how that turned out.

Do you think MNOs are becoming skeptical of ASTSs ability to actually deliver a product?

[Ea @eab_mater]

You've been following the stock this closely for this long and can't recall their dog shit track record?

No offense intended at all but they are not trustworthy on this metric.

"August 11, 2025: Management stated it was fully funded for 45–60 satellites.

October 21, 2025: ASTS announced another $1 billion convertible offering, just 71 days later."

March 2, 2026 — Q4 2025 earnings call

CFO Andrew Johnson stated:
"We are now not only fully funded to manufacture and launch a constellation of over 100 satellites"

He also added:

"At this time, we do not have any plans to pursue additional convertible debt."

ASTS reported approximately $3.9 billion in pro forma liquidity.

May 11, 2026 — Q1 2026 earnings call
Johnson reiterated:

"We do not have any plans to pursue additional convertible debt in 2026."
The company reported approximately $3.5 billion in cash, cash equivalents and restricted cash.

July 15, 2026 — Another $1 billion offering

ASTS announced a $1 billion convertible senior notes offering, despite its earlier statements.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@endless_frank If they triple their launched satellites next year (from 10 to 30) they still won't have enough for continuous coverage of key markets.

They likely won't have proper service until 2028. Yes, I'm accounting for a healthy improvement in cadence; I also don't think it will be 300%.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@endless_frank I do think the company is in serious danger, but I also suspect a lot of this is simply momentum.

Retail has been capitulating for two weeks+ at this point. Same reason that retail piles in as a company goes up rapidly, they can capitulate in the same manner.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@spacanpanman "Regardless of what mgmt is doing".

We know who this is referring to, but this unnamed company is still performing near the bottom of the basket because of what mgmt is not doing.

I don't know why we need to make excuses for them.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@DefinitionsNew The ASTS team will not capitalize on this at all.

[Ea @eab_mater]

Yes, but the increase in cadence isn't going to be quick enough to satisfy the market, in my opinion.

They claimed 6 sats a month last year. It seems obvious now that the Blue Origin explosion had little to no impact on their launch cadence for this year; they weren't manufacturing enough for it to matter.

If they triple their launches next year from 10 to 30 they still can't hit 45 until 2028. That's abysmal, and a 300% increase is generous.

[Ea @eab_mater]

The market is punishing it because not only do they not own Ligado or the spectrum, they aren't capitalizing on it at all. The market doesn't care about their asset squatting. It's immaterial.

Same for every other deal you listed. The issue is that they have no product and at current pace will not have one until EoY 2027.

[Ea @eab_mater]

@thekookreport Many of you were also claiming $ASTS win Grain.

What ended up happening to "5 launches by Q1"? They are nowhere near their 6 sat cadence to make any of these deals matter; that's the issue.

The market is punishing it because it has no product, just ink on paper.