Thank you everyone joining me from @ASTS_SpaceMob
We really love the future $MRLN holds.
Here, @ShawarmaCapital and I aim to provide high quality due diligence and discuss all things $MRLN. While building up this investor community.
This is just the start, glad you’re here early ✈️
Let me paint you a picture. 🐺
2010.Tesla IPO. Everyone laughed.
2026.$ASTS. Everyone’s sleeping.
Goldman just said Starlink hits $144B revenue by 2030.
$ASTS does everything Starlink does. From space. To your existing phone.
It’s sitting at $40 billion.
The greatest trades in history always look obvious in hindsight.
This one’s still in front of you. 👀
$ASTS SpaceMob is now filling there bags with $MRLN should for the next 25x stock!
Don’t mess with #SpaceMob
Holding 5,000 $ASTS BUT also holding 5,000 $MRLN
🛫 The future is bright 🚀
$MRLN: TD Cowen initiated research coverage yesterday 6/3/26 with a Buy Rating and $11 PT
Roth Capital has a Buy Rating and $15 PT
I think there's a good chance both raise their Price Targets on the completion of USSOCOM CDR
$MRLN HITS $10 AFTER HOURS 🚨
Merlin Labs is up 39%+ after hours after announcing a major step forward for its military autonomy program.
The successful Critical Design Review with USSOCOM confirms their autonomous flight architecture meets rigorous standards, unlocking the next phase of aircraft integration and testing for the C-130J platform.
✈️
$MRLN is up 20% in AM after it has completed a design review with USSOCOM. This company is my next $BRUN. I wanted to post this write up tmr and have had it written for awhile now. Here goes!
$MRLN trades at 5.6x FY27 revenue while Anduril sits at ~13x and Saronic Series D at ~24x. It can 2x from here and still land at Anduril near-term multiples. Huge shoutout to @ShawarmaCapital for most of the details in this write up. Please check out his substack for all the DD on this name, you won’t regret it!
Let me give you a brief rundown using my framework:
AI enabler or beneficiary? Enabler. DO-178C Level A certified autonomy software replacing pilot labor on military and commercial airframes. Aircraft-agnostic — Merlin Pilot has flown across 7+ airframe types including KC-135 tankers and C-130J transports. ✅
Leadership. Founder/CEO Matt George rebuilt after his prior startup Bridj failed in 2017. Spent 7 years pre-IPO landing real defense contracts before going public. Bench is the signal: GM Mobility Erin Staine-Pyne is ex-Senior Military Advisor to the Under Secretary of the USAF, commanded the 62nd Airlift Wing's 2,400 personnel. SVP Engineering Pablo Gonzalez ran Northrop's N-UCAS / X-47B program. Board has former SecNav, former USAF Comptroller, Amazon's first CAO, 100% equity rollover at deSPAC. ✅
Rev Quality. $7.55M FY25 revenue, $1M Q1 FY26. Concentrated in three customer commands: USSOCOM C-130J IDIQ ($105M program ceiling, ~$16M obligated through CDR), USAF KC-135 19-month integration contract, and MDA SHIELD (first MDA contract on file). ✅
Rev Growth. $32M FY26 guide (4.2x FY25), Roth-implied $90M FY27. $105M USSOCOM IDIQ is the development authorization, not the production cap — task orders amend at PEO level once airworthiness clears. Per-aircraft economics ($3M integration + $2M annual recurring license, 10-15yr aircraft life) applied across 300 C-130Js + 376 KC-135s already addressable via existing contracts = $300M+ run-rate per platform at steady state. High probability of contract-to-revenue translation because Merlin is the only public name shipping DO-178C Level A flight control across this airframe spread. CCA Layer 3 brainstem is additive — USAF goal of 1,000+ Collaborative Combat Aircraft by 2030. ✅
Moat. DO-178C Level A flight control cert is 3 to 5 years and $200 to 400M of capital for an Anduril or Shield AI to spin up from zero. Reliable Robotics is the only public-market name with comparable cert pedigree, and only on Cessna 208. Merlin spans seven airframes including the KC-135 and C-130J. Validator stack: Honeywell Anthem MOU (Oct 2024), GE Aerospace Autonomy Core co-development (Sept 2025, 14,000 FMS aircraft installed base), Northrop Grumman Beacon cohort enrollment, Boeing Defense technical bench engagement.✅
Asymmetry. At $8.17, EV ex-preferred ~$505M = 5.6x FY27 revenue (Roth-implied $90M). Anduril at ~13x near-term. Saronic Series D at ~24x. A 2x to ~$16 just brings Merlin to Anduril multiples. Bear bounded by $183M cash on the balance sheet (~$3 to 4 realistic floor). Sell-side PT is Roth at $15 (+84% upside, was $25 pre-Q1). ✅
Conviction Gap. Only one analyst covers it. Six P0 catalysts in 111 days: HONA Investor Day Jun 3, Q2 print Aug 14, AFA Conference Sept 14-16, KC-135 autonomy demo Sept 30, lockup expiry + Series A Preferred CDR Sept 16, Boeing MOU window Jul-Sept. Float is 3.6 to 5M shares freely tradeable with 99.93% borrow utilization at the April peak. Any catalyst is mechanically amplified. ✅
TL;DR: Pilots are expensive and the military already outsources flying to contractors. Merlin builds the autopilot software that lets one pilot fly what used to take two — or zero pilots eventually. The hard part isn't the AI, it's the FAA-grade certification that takes 3-5 years to build, and Merlin is years ahead of anyone else trying. The contracts are signed, the customers are real (USAF, USSOCOM), and the market is pricing it like none of that will translate into revenue.
@mc_khristina Hard to imagine how we don’t 2-3x on the news given the fundamental implications.
In any case, this was the catalyst above all others and it came a full quarter sooner than expected. Just beautiful.
Merlin has completed the Critical Design Review for its C-130J autonomy program with @USSOCOM. CDR is the milestone where our government customer reviews the detailed design of the system and accepts it is mature enough to move toward the aircraft. We cleared it.
Learn more about what this milestone means in the press release. https://t.co/Gfkg4jDxqV