$ASTS How the stock should be valued TODAY.
1. Spectrum ~19b
2. IP/Patents/SCS License ~10b
3. 700m rev est 2027 @ 20x sales ~14b
4. Cash ~3.5b
19+10+14+3.5b = 46.5b.
Outstanding shares 389.17m.
46.5b➗389.17m = $119.49pps
How is every trade not a buy?
$ASTS: Thanks to Deutsche Bank's upgrade (hold to buy, PT = $93), we've experienced a nice pop in SP today.
That said, we're not out of the water yet, as I am expecting a bit more chop over the coming days.
The good news?
I believe a $TMUS deal announcement is imminent and we are getting closer to a traditionally bullish time of the year (especially during a midterm election cycle).
That, and we have a launch coming up soon alongside no rate hikes from the Fed at the end of this month, followed by earnings next month.
All of which will lead to higher inflows and a nice EOY rally.
GLTA and NFA...
$ASTS Almost 15m shares have traded today by lunchtime and the stock has barely budged since the open today.
This is pretty rare behavior and a potential signal that a huge move is coming.
$ASTS Everyone needs to understand how ridiculous this is.
Let’s say AST does 200m in revenue this year and 700m next year which is where consensus is.
That alone is worth 20-30b in mkt cap. 22-33x sales.
So we’re trading at 0 times 2027 sales right now when you back out the value of their spectrum and cash.
Like what? Why? The company has had some delays, but no major issues with tech design, operability, launch/unfolding failures or anything like that.
This is happening and the major 3 MNO’s in the U.S are on board. T-Mobile wouldn’t have joined the JV if they weren’t and we’re probably about to get a flurry of contracts from Japan, Europe and expanded contracts from partners in the U.S including the U.S Government.
Think about how ridiculous this selloff is now…
Funny seeing how many people thought I was averaging down when I said I was adding to $ASTS last week after all the $SPCX FUD going around.
Sorry to disappoint but I started building my AST position below $3 so I was averaging up into a winner rather than trying to rescue a losing position.
Appreciate everyone’s concern though 😅
❗️[ 🇫🇷 FRANCE ]
🔸 Une cyberattaque d’une ampleur inédite a visé les systèmes de froid de magasins Intermarché, Leclerc, Coopérative U, mais aussi Metro et plusieurs commerces indépendants. Les pirates auraient forcé les installations à dégivrer en continu à 50°C, détruisant les stocks réfrigérés. Plus de 150 Intermarché seraient touchés et les pertes pourraient se chiffrer en plusieurs millions d’euros.
Deutsche Bank upgraded $ASTS to Buy with a $93 target, calling Friday’s 10% selloff “misguided.”
It values AST’s Ligado spectrum rights at ~$19B versus a ~$23B enterprise value, implying ~$4B for the rest of the business.
🚨 GOOD NEWS $ASTS: DEUTSCHE BANK CALLS THE 10% SELLOFF MISGUIDED. $93 PRICE TARGET AND A VERY INTERESTING $19B SPECTRUM ARGUMENT.
Good morning everyone.
Deutsche Bank has moved $ASTS to Buy with a $93 price target, following Friday's roughly 10% selloff.
$SPCX is moving closer to competing directly with traditional mobile carriers and investors saw that as automatically bearish for AST SpaceMobile.
I don't think it's that simple. Remember, $ASTS is already building relationships with mobile operators that have every reason to protect their customer base as satellite connectivity becomes part of the telecom market.
If SpaceX wants to compete more directly with those carriers, AST could become an even more valuable partner rather than simply another competitor.
Now look at Deutsche Bank's spectrum argument. The bank reportedly values AST's Ligado spectrum rights at approximately $19B, compared with an enterprise value of roughly $23B.
Guys, that's a remarkable comparison. Deutsche is effectively assigning enormous strategic value to the spectrum position alone, before considering the full commercial opportunity from AST's satellite network.
Of course, that $19B is an analyst valuation, not cash sitting on AST's balance sheet. The rights still need to translate into usable capacity and commercial economics.
And there is another development I would connect with this. BlueBird 14, 15 and 16 have reportedly arrived at Cape Canaveral, while the Texas factory continues building the next satellites.
That is what I have been wanting to see from ASTS. Completed hardware moving toward launches while production continues behind it.
If AST can establish a consistent manufacturing and launch schedule, operators have a much stronger reason to commit commercially because network capacity starts becoming more predictable.
SpaceX's deeper move into telecom could actually increase the strategic value of $ASTS to established carriers.
I want to see the evidence in satellite deployments, commercial coverage, carrier commitments and eventually revenue.
I am bullish on $ASTS. I think the market is still underestimating how valuable an independent satellite broadband partner will become to mobile operators facing direct competition from SpaceX.
DEUTSCHE BANK UPGRADES AST SPACEMOBILE TO BUY RATING WITH $93 PRICE TARGET
We believe now is an opportune time to become more constructive given the recent stock-price weakness, a number of positive developments/catalysts that we think have gone under the radar.
We believe it is increasingly likely that T-Mobile will switch from Starlink to ASTS as its D2D partner (through the JV). Roughly coincident with the timing of the announcement that AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile reached a definitive agreement to form a D2D JV on Oct.
$ASTS
-ASTS's Ligado spectrum rights are valued at $19 billion, almost as much as the company itself ($19.83 billion).
- The company also has $3 billion in cash.
- As things stand, the commercial and defense business is valued at $0 in this configuration… Ridiculous 🤡🚀
$ASTS Perhaps one of the most bullish upgrades/analyst notes I’ve ever seen on AST Spacemobile.
They put the value of their spectrum rights around $19b.
The entire market cap dropped to 19.8b as of Friday’s close using 389.17m shares.
It’s trading below the value of their 3.5b in cash and Starlink is worth 1.3T. 🙃
This is the most extreme selloff in the stocks history relative to anything. The IP is probably worth another 20b.
Forget about revenue, this stock should be at $93(DB’s price target) as a starting value before any speculation about what the company will earn.
@anetysse Totally ridiculous that a stock can trade at a 15% discount to its cash and spectrum value and price in zero of its patents and SCS license of which only AST and Space X even have.