LET DUNCAN COOK ๐งโ๐ณ
๐ PK Dish #3 (3/7)
๐ฝ๏ธ ๐๐ฎ๐ง๐๐๐ง ๐๐จ๐๐ข๐ง๐ฌ๐จ๐ง ๐จ๐๐.๐ ๐๐จ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ฌ (-๐๐๐)
Cooked w/ @KBProps ๐ค
LIKE IF TAILING โค๏ธ
โข With the injury report for the Pistons tonight you would think to target a guy like Jalen Duren maybe right? Well actually no the answer isnโt him but instead itโs Jimmy Neutron aka Duncan Robinson lol, let me explain why weโre backing him today.
โข Both Cade Cunningham and Ausar Thompson are ruled out tonight! Without Cade heโs over this line in 6/6 (100%) games this season averaging 16.3 points per game and in games without Ausar heโs over this line in 4/4 (100%) games averaging 16 points per game.
โข In the sample of games without Cade heโs seen an average usage rate of 19.5% which is an increase compared to his season average of a 16% usage rate. When he seeโs a 19% usage rate or higher and plays 15+ minutes heโs over this line in 14/16 (88%) games this season averaging 16.1 points per game.
โข Not to mention that heโs his efficiency when playing at Home is way more significantly better than when he plays on the Road. Itโs almost like a day and night difference especially from three:
๐ Home: 44.1 FG% / 43.0 3P% / 13.1 PPG
๐ Road: 41.8 FG% / 34.9 3P% / 10.6 PPG
โข Now he gets a matchup versus the Brooklyn Nets who on paper look like a mid tier matchup as they rank 11th in points allowed to opposing SGโs but itโs actually a way better one than you think especially for a player like Robinson.
โข On the season they rank 29th in defensive efficiency versus Spot Upโs which is how he scores 35% of his points and even rank 26th versus Transition which is how he scores 21.1% of his points.
โข Against teams that rank bottom 10 versus Spot Upโs and with 22+ minutes played heโs gone over this line in his last 4 STRAIGHT and 8/10 games averaging 13.1 points per game. Now if you add Cade being ruled out and Duncan playing 19+ minutes along with taking 4+ FGA then heโs over this line in his last 7 STRAIGHT and 9/10 games averaging 15 points per game.
โข Duncan has gone under this line in both games versus the Nets this season with 8 and 7 points due to one of the games being a 53 point blowout which is just absurd and in the other one he took just 6 FGA. I think he should see a lot more volume tonight with both minutes and FGA.
โข Weโve already seen a decent amount of spot up players have success versus this Brooklyn squad so far this season which has resulted in them to go over their respective points lines โฌ๏ธ
Sam Merrill: 15 points / 12.5 line โ
Baylor Scheierman: 10 points / 7.5 line โ
Tim Hardaway: 25 points / 13.5 line โ
Landry Shamet: 18 points / 4.5 line โ
Grayson Allen: 14 points / 13.5 line โ
KCP: 14 points / 7.5 line โ
Norman Powell: 24 points / 23.5 line โ
Donte DiVincenzo: 25 points / 14.5 line โ
โข Backing Jimmy Neutron to step up tonight with Detroitโs star player being ruled out. Heโs going to let it fly from deep!
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