ebipere

Paddle sought, will pay handsomely #ElectroYuan #ExergyTransition #DualTransition

[ebipere @ebipere]

@jianshuo Slop

[ebipere @ebipere]

𝗗𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝗼𝗽𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝘀 𝗖𝘂𝗹𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗮𝗹 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

No country has industrialised while its kinship networks stayed intact.

David Oks's piece on the China-India divergence is, at its core, a case study in @JoHenrich WEIRD thesis — that the dissolution of kinship bonds is not a byproduct of development but a condition precedent for it. China's decisive advantage over India was not its 1978 liberalisation. It was what happened in 1950: the systematic dismantling of the traditional social architecture that governed labour, land, and women's lives.

The mechanism is a welfare transfer sequence: family → corporation → state. Kinship networks persist — rationally — until something else performs their core function: pooling risk, covering illness, housing the elderly. While they persist, labour cannot move freely, women cannot work freely, and the industrial transition stalls. Every successful industrialisation story, from medieval Europe through East Asia, is at root a story about who took over from the clan.

For Africa's energy transition — which is, beneath the technology conversation, a transition from agrarian to industrial economic organisation — this raises a prior question: what replaces the kinship welfare function before the rupture, not after?

China used state coercion. The West used the Church, then the corporation, then the state — across eight centuries. Neither timeline is available to Africa.

This reasoning, if correct, makes financial inclusion — mobile money, indexed insurance, programmable transfers — not a development finance abstraction, but the welfare substitution infrastructure that makes a managed economic transition possible.

That is the real policy frontier.

Until then we can argue over solar panels.

[ebipere @ebipere]

By 1980, as its economy opened to the world, China was a socially modern country that just happened to be extraordinarily poor. It had the human capital for rapid industrialization.

https://t.co/RD2yjzSnT4

[ebipere @ebipere]

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗶𝘀𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗤𝘂𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗶𝗻 𝗔𝗳𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗮’𝘀 𝗘𝗻𝗲𝗿𝗴𝘆 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻

The African youth bulge is often treated as a development advantage. That assumption is no longer safe.

Africa is trying to map a twenty-first-century energy system onto a twentieth-century economic model. Renewable energy, minigrids, green industrialisation, and climate finance are still too often framed around an old promise: build power, create jobs, absorb youth.

But the global economy is becoming increasingly labour-light. Automation, AI, drones, robotics, precision agriculture, and digital infrastructure are changing the relationship between energy, production, and employment. Energy access alone no longer guarantees broad labour absorption.

This matters most in rural Africa. A renewable minigrid in a subsistence agricultural community is not automatically a development model. In an age of drone farming, autonomous tractors, satellite agronomy, and AI-enabled logistics, the real question is not simply whether rural communities have power. It is what kind of economic participation that power enables.

Africa largely missed the green mechanised agricultural revolution. The next transition may be autonomous agriculture. If so, the continent cannot afford to enter the energy transition with no theory of the work transition.

A just energy transition that does not interrogate the future of work is incomplete.

The continental energy transition must answer the continental work transition. Every energy policy, rural electrification plan, minigrid programme, and climate-finance strategy should be forced to answer one question:

What is the theory of human economic participation in this model?

If the answer is merely “the youth will be employed,” that is not a theory. It is a prayer wearing the clothes of an argument.

For policy architecture, this is the discussion to open: Africa should not fight the last development war. The question is no longer only how to power the continent. It is how Africans participate economically in the systems that power will enable.

I don’t hear these discussions, or maybe I am simply not invited.

Energy is the Means and not the End.

[ebipere @ebipere]

@esaagar The Stockpiles are not moving

https://t.co/vdeLTMlmxO

[ebipere @ebipere]

@glcarlstrom There is some clarity
Hydrocarbon Value Chain Substitution

https://t.co/vdeLTMlmxO

[ebipere @ebipere]

@izakaminska Overvalued US dollar meets undervalued CN product - what’s not to like?

[ebipere @ebipere]

@carlbildt Europe has an undercapacity in hydrocarbons and green energy.

[ebipere @ebipere]

@XH_Lee23 Grandma would have to hold my hand and guide me as my eyes would be closed.

[ebipere @ebipere]

As an African born in the early 1970s, I take offense at this.

@shaunrein Get ready for a drubbing by African GenXers.

[Shaun Rein @shaunrein]

If it's true that the EU is getting ready to launch a trade war against China, I'll be proven right that Europe is run by the dumbest people imaginable

If the citizens don't stop them, then Europe will be the Africa of the 1980s

[ebipere @ebipere]

@quxiaoyin Attention is all you heed!

[ebipere @ebipere]

I honestly thought this was AI.

[Nature Unedited @NatureUnedited]

At an aquarium in Japan, after closing time, some clever little otter pups help their grandpa tidy up their toys. As a reward, he gives them ice cubes

[ebipere @ebipere]

@michaelxpettis Is not one man’s imbalance another man’s subsidy?

[ebipere @ebipere]

@BrettErickson28 This is incredible.
Everyone has their finger in the pie and believe they have leverage on the outcome refusing to budge.
This is wonderful. This is African politics at its finest where your leverage is based on how strong is the spanner you threw into the machine.

[ebipere @ebipere]

@BrettErickson28 @KQ992017 @academic_la So we are just going to hit tank bottom.
Bang!
I thought so but I thought from delay

[ebipere @ebipere]

Programmable Fiscal Money
or: Getting Households to Spend More whilst paying off their debt.

You cannot prevent deleveraging-agreed. Route around it.

Inject new money directly to households as a programmable voucher. Face value in the real economy. Zero in the financial economy. Fifty percent face as tax payment - for households and non-financial businesses only. The sovereign recovers from other sectors later - if they choose. After all the Central does not seem to do QT after QE and socializes the mark to market. This is Net Financial Asset that cannot be used in the Financial Sector - this has been the problem.

The clock: 30 days, rolling. It resets on every wallet transfer. Back to 30 days. The voucher doesn’t expire it dies as a tax credit only if someone - who is eligible for it - holds it beyond 30 days. Velocity is the survival condition.
The sovereign sink: businesses and households that accumulate vouchers -accidentally or not, discharge them as tax if they don’t spend in real economy. The circuit drains, the sovereign reissues, the circuit restarts.

We don’t know how people will behave. We don’t need to. Issue, observe, adjust. Waiting for certainty is the mistake.

This is an increase in NFA that can only be used in the real sector. It has NO VALUE in the financial sector. You can’t pay off debt, you can’t buy shares. Use your own money for that.

It is the proverbial hot potato worth face to the real economy, and nothing to the financial sector.

I think we are going to start seeing a lot of non-fungible money - soon. Very soon.

The asymmetry is the feature not the bug.

@Nicolas_Colin
@Mauerback
@noah_gordon_
@adam_tooze
@michaelxpettis

[ebipere @ebipere]

We all need phones that limit our social media use.

Some more than others.

[Harry Sisson @harryjsisson]

Trump had another mental health episode today and posted over 50 times online:

11:15 AM - Trump attacks judge who said he couldn’t put his name on the Kennedy Center
12:03 PM - Says he may perform and give a speech at the America 250 event instead of artists who cancelled
12:08 PM - Says Obama filled the Reflecting Pool with Garbage
12:09 PM - Attacks Biden
12:09 PM - Posts edited photo of Columbus Circle in DC with the caption “CLEAN”
12:10 PM - Attacks Biden again
12:11 PM - Posts AI photo of him and George Washington riding horses in front of the White House with a space shuttle and race car in the background
12:11 PM - Attacks Rosie O’Donnell
12:11 PM - Posts photo of him in front of the American flag
12:11 PM - Brags about his endorsed candidates winning
12:12 PM - Attack Obama and Biden over the reflecting pool
12:12 PM - Posts photo of him pointing at the camera
12:13 PM - Posts photo of the UFC event cage he’s building at the White House
12:13 PM - Posts an AI image of a “golden dome” for the White House
12:15 PM - Defends Jaxson Dart, calling him a “winner” and his critics “losers”
12:45 PM - Posts an AI image of him as a NY Knicks basketball player dunking on Governor Kathy Hochul
12:56 PM - Posts an AI image of him with Tom Brady
1:03 PM - Posts a garbage can labeling it “The Obama Presidential Library”
1:16 PM - Says America is back
1:16 PM - Says America is back again
1:16 PM - Says America is back for the 3rd time
1:55 PM - Posts an AI image of him golfing
2:55 PM - Says he’s in “excellent health” lol
3:17 PM - Promotes his Fox News interview with Lara Trump
4:33 PM - Attacks the Pope again
4:54 PM - Posts a weird image of him staring at Greenland (which he has posted already)
4:57 PM - Posts an AI image of the “drone port” he wants to build on top of the ballroom
5:33 PM - Attacks Biden
5:33 PM - Attacks Biden x2
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x3
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x4
5:34 PM - Attacks Biden x5
5:35 PM - Posts cartoon image of Governors Newsom, Pritzker, and Hochul saying they like crime (Trump is a felon)
5:36 PM - Posts meme about Republicans who voted to release the Epstein files losing their primaries
5:36 PM - Posts an old tweet of his where he attacks “disloyal” Republicans
5:37 PM - Posts an old tweet where he said he wants to stop the world from “killing itself”
5:37 PM - Posts a mock up of a “Trump Peace Prize” which may be the most useless peace prize known to man
5:37 PM - Posts a photo of a B-2 bomber with the caption “Trump energy 2026”
5:37 PM - Posts a photo of his face on Mount Rushmore
5:38 PM - Posts an image of him kissing the American flag (he’s the least patriotic president we’ve ever had)
5:39 PM - Compares himself to George Washington
5:39 PM - Says you were convinced to think a photo of a family sitting on a car is “evil” and billions were spent to do that (???)
5:50 PM - Says we should “physically audit” Fort Knox
5:50 PM - Posts an image of him cosplaying as a navy commander
5:51 PM - Posts another image of his face on Mount Rushmore
5:51 PM - Posts another photo of him and George Washington
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden again
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden x2
6:09 PM - Attacks Biden x3
6:09 PM - Posts an old photo of himself and King Charles
6:12 PM - Posts an old photo of himself and President XI in China
6:12 PM - Posts another photo of himself and President Xi
6:22 PM - Posts a photo of himself walking in China
6:48 PM - Says the U.S. should have a ballroom because China has one
7:03 PM - Says he wants to cancel his America 250 celebration and replace it with a MAGA rally
7:56 PM - Promotes Mark Levin’s show on Fox News
7:59 PM - Promotes his Fox News interview with Lara Trump

All in one day. This man is not well. Impeachment and removal NOW.

[ebipere @ebipere]

@MikeLevin Silly question - why won’t a bank lend?
Does the Pentagon issue credit cards.

[ebipere @ebipere]

You cannot prevent deleveraging-agreed. Route around it.

Inject new money directly to households as a programmable voucher. Face value in the real economy. Zero in the financial economy. Fifty percent face as tax payment - for households and non-financial businesses only. The sovereign recovers from other sectors later.

The clock: 30 days, rolling. It resets on every wallet transfer. The voucher doesn’t expire it dies as a tax credit only if someone holds it. Velocity is the survival condition.

The sovereign sink: businesses and households that accumulate vouchers, discharge them as tax if they don’t spend in real economy. The circuit drains, the sovereign reissues, the circuit restarts.

We don’t know how people will behave. We don’t need to. Issue, observe, adjust. Waiting for certainty is the mistake.

[ebipere @ebipere]

@Naoka_Qazaqliq @michaelxpettis It would be digital currency programmed for certain goods and services. - like the Covid vouchers