Have you heard Aaron LaCombe’s song Allsup’s Burrito?
You should, it’s just fun- it’s on @Spotify
Great weekend in the Big Empty fueled on the return by @allsupsstores
Jeff Bezos reveals why he thinks AI will cause a labor shortage, not mass unemployment
"There's so many people who are afraid AI is going to take their job. I think there's going to be a labor shortage as a result"
"All these smart people keep saying there's going to be no more radiologists because AI can read X-rays better, no more software engineers because AI can program better. These people are wrong"
"What's really going to happen is it's going to elevate all of these people. You've been digging out a basement with a shovel, and somebody is about to hand you a bulldozer"
"We're going to have so much productivity that a lot of people with two-earner income households, one of them is going to drop out of the workforce"
"I predict we will actually have deflation of certain core things. Food will get cheaper and housing construction will get cheaper"
@CrockettHaus yep it is and that would be found on socials or :
https://t.co/1x6cD0snEw
70 businesses west of MarktPlatz that are full of luxury goods and services, music and food and you, except some of you have never been west.
Elon Musk avait dit un truc qui m'avait marqué sur l'allocation de ressources. En substance : passé un certain niveau de richesse, l'argent n'est plus de la consommation, c'est de l'allocation de capital.
Cette phrase change tout.
L'économie, dans le fond, c'est juste un problème d'allocation. Tu as des ressources finies et des usages infinis. Qui décide où va quoi ?
Imagine une cour de récré. 100 enfants, des paquets de cartes Pokémon distribués au hasard. Tu laisses faire. Très vite, un ordre émerge. Les bons joueurs accumulent les cartes rares, les collectionneurs trient, les négociateurs trouvent des deals. Personne n'a planifié. Et pourtant chaque carte finit dans les mains de celui qui en tire le plus de valeur. Le système maximise le bonheur total de la cour. C'est ça, la main invisible.
Maintenant fais entrer la maîtresse. Elle trouve ça injuste. Léo a 50 cartes, Tom en a 3. Elle confisque, redistribue, impose l'égalité. Trois effets immédiats. Les bons joueurs arrêtent de jouer, à quoi bon. Les mauvais n'ont plus de raison de progresser, ils auront leur part. Les échanges s'effondrent. La cour est égale, et morte. Elle a maximisé l'égalité, elle a détruit le bonheur.
Le problème de la maîtresse, c'est qu'elle ne peut pas avoir l'information que la cour avait collectivement. C'est le problème du calcul économique de Mises, formulé en 1920. L'URSS a essayé de le résoudre pendant 70 ans avec le Gosplan. Résultat : pénuries, queues, effondrement. Pas parce que les Soviétiques étaient bêtes, parce que le problème est mathématiquement insoluble en mode centralisé.
Quand Musk a 200 milliards, il ne les consomme pas, il les alloue. SpaceX, Starlink, Neuralink, xAI. Chaque dollar est un pari sur le futur. Et lui a un track record. PayPal, Tesla, SpaceX. Il a démontré qu'il sait identifier des problèmes immenses et y allouer des ressources avec un rendement spectaculaire.
L'État aussi a un track record. Hôpitaux qui s'effondrent, éducation qui décline, dette qui explose, services publics qui se dégradent malgré des budgets en hausse constante. Le marché identifie les bons allocateurs, la politique identifie les bons communicants.
Le profit n'est pas une finalité, c'est un signal. Il dit : tu as alloué des ressources rares vers un usage que les gens valorisent suffisamment pour payer. Plus le profit est gros, plus la création de valeur est grande. Quand Starlink est rentable, ça veut dire que des millions de gens dans des zones rurales ont enfin internet. Quand un ministère est en déficit, ça veut dire qu'il consomme plus qu'il ne produit. L'un crée, l'autre détruit, et on appelle ça redistribution.
Dans nos sociétés il y a deux catégories d'acteurs. Les entrepreneurs et les bureaucrates. L'entrepreneur prend un risque personnel pour identifier un problème, mobiliser des ressources, créer une solution. S'il se trompe il perd. S'il a raison, ses clients gagnent, ses employés gagnent, ses fournisseurs gagnent, l'État collecte des impôts. Il est la cellule de base du progrès humain.
Le bureaucrate ne prend aucun risque personnel. Son salaire est garanti. Au mieux il maintient une rente existante. Au pire il la détruit par excès de réglementation, mauvaise allocation forcée, incitations perverses qui découragent ceux qui produisent. Mais dans aucun cas il ne crée.
Regarde les 50 dernières années. iPhone, internet civil, SpaceX, Tesla, Google, Amazon, Stripe, mRNA, ChatGPT. Toutes des inventions privées, portées par des entrepreneurs, financées par du capital risque. Pas un seul ministère n'a inventé quoi que ce soit qui ait changé ta vie au quotidien.
La France est devenue le laboratoire mondial de la dérive bureaucratique. 57% du PIB en dépenses publiques, record absolu. Une administration tentaculaire, une fiscalité qui pénalise la création de richesse. Résultat : décrochage face aux États-Unis, à l'Allemagne, à la Suisse. Fuite des cerveaux. Désindustrialisation. Dette qui explose.
Et le pire c'est que la mauvaise allocation s'auto-renforce. Plus l'État prélève, moins les entrepreneurs créent. Moins ils créent, moins il y a de base fiscale. Plus l'État s'endette et taxe. Boucle de rétroaction négative parfaite. La maîtresse pense qu'elle aide, et chaque année la cour produit moins.
Dans nos sociétés, ce sont les entrepreneurs, toujours, qui font avancer la civilisation. Les bureaucrates au mieux maintiennent une rente, au pire la détruisent. Aucune société n'a jamais progressé en taxant ses créateurs pour subventionner ses gestionnaires.
La question n'est jamais qui a combien. C'est qui alloue le mieux la prochaine unité de ressource pour maximiser le futur de l'humanité. La réponse depuis 200 ans n'a jamais changé. Ce ne sont pas les fonctionnaires.
Have you been to the sensitive parts of Texas, where aquifer sucking AI compute & battery power grid storage centers are being built?
The AI #cloud will take #txwater, not give it. Plan better.
Build on them on the coast, yet subsidence and desalination must be addressed, depleted fresh water aquifers not so easy.
#DFW #ATx #SAtx #txlege #riobravo #hillcountry #WTx #Permian #TTU @TxWaterJournal@txwaterexpert@elonmusk@WaterTechOnline@TXAG@Rotary@FWTXmag@witchitafallsla
Respect- I worked in Bethlehem Steel’s Shipyard as a young man because I could read & correct engineering blueprints and knew how an offshore drilling rig should work.
Charles Schwab ran Bethlehem Steel. I was one of 5 non union shipyard workers w 6,000 union workers.
Read on
Charles Schwab ran the largest steel company in the world.
He had access to every consultant, every system, every productivity tool available in 1918.
He said a 15-minute conversation with a man named Ivy Lee was the most valuable business advice he ever received.
He paid him $25,000 for it. The advice fit on an index card.
Ivy Lee was not famous. He was not a philosopher or a scientist or a professor at a prestigious institution. He was a productivity consultant who had spent years watching extremely capable people fail to do their most important work, and he had developed a precise theory about why.
The theory was not complicated. It was uncomfortable.
The reason most people never do their most important work is not that they lack time. It is that they never decide what their most important work actually is. They arrive each morning at a pile of tasks with roughly equal claim on their attention, choose based on whatever feels most urgent or easiest in that moment, and spend the day moving through a list that was never designed to move them forward. They are busy in a way that feels productive and accomplishes far less than it should.
Lee asked Schwab for 15 minutes with his executive team. Schwab agreed. Lee walked them through six steps. He asked them to try it for three months and pay him whatever they thought it was worth.
Here is the system.
At the end of every workday, write down the six most important things you need to accomplish tomorrow. Not ten. Not twenty. Six. If you cannot decide what matters enough to make that list, you have already identified the real problem.
Prioritize those six items in order of their true importance. Not urgency. Not ease. Importance. The thing that will matter most three months from now goes first, regardless of how uncomfortable it is to start.
When you arrive the next morning, begin immediately on item one. Work on it until it is finished. Do not touch item two until item one is complete. Do not check email. Do not attend to whatever walked through the door. Item one, until it is done.
Move through the list in order. If you reach the end of the day and items four, five, and six remain untouched, move them to the next day's list without guilt. They were not the most important things. The most important things got done.
Repeat this process every day for the rest of your working life.
That is the entire system. Six steps. Four minutes the night before. No app required. No morning ritual. No tracking software. An index card and a pen.
What Lee understood that most productivity systems miss entirely is that the bottleneck in human performance is almost never capacity. It is prioritization. The average knowledge worker has more than enough hours in the day to accomplish something significant. What they do not have is a forcing function that makes them decide, the night before, in a calm moment free from the noise of the incoming day, what significant actually means for them tomorrow.
The morning is the worst possible time to make this decision. The morning brings email and notifications and other people's priorities and the accumulated urgency of everything that did not get done yesterday. By the time most people have decided what to work on, an hour is gone and the decision was made by their inbox rather than by them.
Lee's method moves the decision to the evening, when the day's noise has settled and the mind can assess without distraction. The prioritization is done before the chaos begins. Which means the next morning, there is no decision to make. There is only execution.
The second insight embedded in the system is the single-tasking constraint. Item one, until it is finished. Not item one until something more urgent appears. Not item one until you have checked in on items two through six. Item one, finished, before anything else receives your attention.
This runs against every instinct that modern work has trained into people. The entire infrastructure of the contemporary workplace is designed to fragment attention. Email expects a response within hours. Slack expects a response within minutes. The open office assumes that any question is more important than whatever the person being asked is currently doing. The result is a workforce that is in constant motion and making almost no progress on anything that actually matters.
Lee's method is a direct refusal of this dynamic. It does not negotiate with urgency. It does not make exceptions for whoever shouts loudest. It asks you to decide, once, what matters most, and then protect that decision from everything that will try to override it the next morning.
Charles Schwab ran Bethlehem Steel. He had seven hundred employees. He had more operational complexity, more competing demands, more legitimate urgency than most people reading this will ever face.
He tried the system for three months.
Then he sent Ivy Lee a check for $25,000 and a note saying it was the most valuable business advice he had ever received.
The system has not changed. The morning has not gotten less chaotic. The inbox has not gotten smaller.
The only variable that was ever under your control was what you decided the night before.
Six things. In order. Starting with the first.
The most valuable productivity advice in history is still free.
Most people will read it, find it obvious, and go back to checking email.