Eddy

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

@aleabitoreddit Any chance the Co. transfer those shares to JPM to use them as custodian, prepare for Nasdaq listing etc.

Not necessary a HF use JPM as PB to buy or JPM Assets Mgmt to buy given SIVERS market cap is small may not fall into their investment mandate.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

$MSTR’s original model generated positive Bitcoin yield by selling common stock at a premium, then by issuing preferred stock at coupons below Bitcoin’s expected appreciation. Now @Saylor is forcing common shareholders to accept a negative Bitcoin yield just to prop up Bitcoin.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

As damage control, @Saylor just announced $MSTR bought 1,550 BTC for $101 million while also increasing its U.S. dollar reserves by $100 million. If MSTR sold stock at a discount, that diluted Bitcoin per share. This doesn't prove MSTR can sell Bitcoin, but that it can't.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$BTC

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

$MSTR’s original model generated positive Bitcoin yield by selling common stock at a premium, then by issuing preferred stock at coupons below Bitcoin’s expected appreciation. Now @Saylor is forcing common shareholders to accept a negative Bitcoin yield just to prop up Bitcoin.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Okay chat, here's your compiled list chat of your favorite 800V DC related ideas.

1. $IFNNY - $115.8B
2. $ON - $46.2B
3. Lite-On (2301) - $16.03B
4. 6504.T - $14.1B
5. $VICR - $12.8B
6. $LFUS - $11.57B
7. https://t.co/1unM4FPf65 - $8.34B
8. $VSH - $7.86B
9. $ENPH - $7.36B
10. $NVTS - $5.77B
11. $POWI - $4.30B
12. $BDC - $4.18B
13. $EOSE - $3.86B
14. $SEDG - $3.82B
15. $AEHR - $3.1B
16. 6890.T - $2.66B
17. $WOLF - $2.16B
18. $CWR.L - $1.75B
19. $AMSC - $1.68B
20. https://t.co/43OXU9tx65 - $1.68B
21. $XFAB - $1.54B
22. $AOSL - $1.25B
23. $HYLN - $1.23B
24. $FCEL - $835M
25. $IQE.L - $780M
26. $ASYS - $276M
27. $RELL - $239M
28. 6844.T - $222M
29. 4973.T - $207M
30. $PAY.BR - $189M
31. 6616.T - $186M
32. 6882.T - $124M
33. $IPWR - $96m

Also included some adjacent ones you all mentioned like $FCEL or $EOSE anyway, tho idk it's great exposure. Ignored the clearer irrelevant stuff like $POET that people mentioned tho.

There's like 500 comments, but I guess X limits everything I can see.

We'll see how your highest conviction ideas do.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

@crux_capital_ Bookmarked, thanks for the hard work.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$BTC Capital rotation...

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Trader Eugene says he has largely exited crypto and shifted to U.S. equities

Famous trader Eugene said he has largely exited the crypto market and shifted to U.S. equities, saying the current crypto market lacks attractive risk-reward opportunities.

He also said he is bearish on Strategy and Michael Saylor, arguing that the model may be starting to unravel. Given Strategy’s high correlation with Bitcoin, Eugene said he would not consider going long BTC and has no intention to buy the dip for now.

[阿尔法 @alpha101xyz]

感性的观点谁都有，关键是咱得算账！
$SPCX #SpaceX
在crypto游过泳的都应该会看tokenomics和unlocking schedule，其实算股票IPO的筹码分布情况和未来解锁时间表是相同的原理，或者说它本来就是ICO的爹。咱先看看筹码结构和买盘，下一篇我再拆一下业务结构里的买点和坑。

由于市值和募资规模过于庞大，从机构到散户都非常担心流动性会被吸血到什么程度。但因为顶尖8大投行都是spaceX的承销商，这里面利益冲突太大，所以他们也不好意思精算这个事。我们可以根据BNP Paribas专门的测算作为基线做进一步研究。

这三家公司按最新估值加起来约3.57万亿美元
SpaceX 1.75万亿
Anthropic 9650亿 （最新一轮投后估值，IPO肯定更高）
OpenAI 8520亿（最新一轮投后估值，IPO肯定更高）
年初美股总市值约69万亿美元，三家公司合计占比5.17%。Tom Lee说三大IPO会抽走美股5%流动性，这个数字大概就从这里来

真正要命的是融资口径：
SpaceX这单融资750亿美元。Anthropic和OpenAI按当前估值5%发行规模保守估算，分别融资482.5亿和426亿美元。三家公司合计约1658.5亿美元。而美国银行业全部准备金约3.014万亿美元。1658.5亿美元 / 3.014万亿美元 = 5.5%。 换句话说，2026年最热的三家公司融资就要吃掉相当于美国银行体系准备金5.5%的流动性

SpaceX一家750亿美元融资，相当于美国银行业准备金2.5%，也相当于美国股票基金最近10周净流入。美国股票基金最近一周净流入只有74.3亿美元。SpaceX一单IPO，等于一次性吃掉10周水量。

BNPP最早的乐观研究是认为三大指数都会修改规则把spaceX立刻纳入指数，没想到S&P经过考虑之后拒绝了，那么正常流程就是至少12个月以后才可能接盘spaceX。 法国巴黎银行测算，SpaceX上市后由指数带来的被动买盘大约300亿美元，其中短期能来的大约140亿美元，主要来自Nasdaq-100、MSCI、Russell、CRSP这类快速入指机制。标普500那部分约134亿美元已经延后。S&P Dow Jones明确拒绝给SpaceX开快速通道，12个月上市期、盈利要求、10%自由流通股要求全部维持。SpaceX当前亏损，free float也只有约3%-4%，最快也要2027年6月才进入资格窗口，现实还要看盈利和float。

所以短期买盘：
IPO融资 750亿
散户配售 225亿
短期被动买盘 140亿
剩下约385亿，需要主动基金和机构真实接盘。

解锁和抛压：
IPO定向配售约5%股份，没有lock-up，上市后可以交易。普通pre-IPO股东有180天lock-up，但第一份季报后最多可以早释20%，股价达标再释放10%，第二份季报后继续分段释放。Musk和重要股东锁366天。

交易上我会这样处理：
$SPCX首日如果直接冲太高，只做流动性事件，别按长期价值接。暂时假设它的走势类似 $CRCL 早期不需要业绩兑现期间，心理上当成meme来炒，不必过分纠结估值，毕竟IPO的发行价估值已经是合理估值的2倍多了。$135发行价是锚，$150以内还有事件交易空间，$170以上风险回报开始变差，$180以上只适合极短线资金流博弈。

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

@alpha101xyz Appericated for giving exact price level with views.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$SIVE $SOI

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

On top: $NVDA CEO also called out Silicon Photonics (optical networking) with memory.

Stating that Nvidia would require “supply volumes beyond imagination”.

What a bullish read through on the SiPH supply chain from $SIVE (now upstream Nvidia ecosystem) to $SOI

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

@aleabitoreddit Well deserved.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

So HK / China Investors who can't participate in $SPCX SpaceX IPO can have exposure through Bybit IPO Express, they don't have to buy on listing if they really want to own the stocks.

$SPCX #IPO

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Bybit Launches IPO Express, Opens Tokenized SpaceX IPO Subscription via xStocks

Bybit has launched IPO Express, an on-chain equity offering product, and introduced a tokenized SpaceX IPO subscription in partnership with xStocks. Spot trading expected to begin on June 12. Bybit said the tokenized SpaceX shares are fully backed by xStocks issuers and maintain a 1:1 linkage to underlying equity exposure.

https://t.co/U3afQBmc8S

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$IREN $SLNH

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Sure, #1 thing is toxic financing structure/float dynamics.

Best example is current Neoclouds landscape:

- $IREN is basically trash, since they have $6,000,000,000 ATMs and virtually infinite dilution, likely selling into every rally (structural overhang)

- While $NBIS is now YTD 153%+, from optimal structures (eg. $NVDA direct funding, mix of convertibles, etc.).

- On the other hand, $CRWV has endless debt interest given they took out high interest rate loans to finance GPUs.

It's extremely nuanced, but you need to take a look at the float dynamics.

If they're legitimately a good company, then it might be a good idea to go long after all the existing holders get diluted to oblivion.

But if you care about your equity appreciation, it's a good idea to stay far away from toxic financing structures or toxic overhang (eg. debt interest, that eats away at a company FCF long term)

With smaller companies, they have this all the time, like
$SLNH, where there's new $500m ATMs on a $250m MC.

Or like $BKKT where there's endless dilution to fund executive pay.

With these companies you're basically transferring your money over to the company while influencers talk about them. So those are red flags.

With many software names like $SNAP, they mask stock-based compensation with profitability. So while the company optically looks profitable, you'll likely see the value of your equity decrease due to dilution.

There's endless types of these share structures you need to look when screening ideas.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$BTC That's basic ECON101, Demand, Supply, Price.

Demand is dropped coz capital rotation as quoted by Michael Saylor.

How about Supply and Price? 🤔

[0xNobler @CryptoNobler]

🚨 HERE'S WHY BITCOIN IS NONSTOP DUMPING RIGHT NOW

If you still think $BTC trades like a supply-and-demand asset, you MUST read this carefully.

Because that market no longer exists.

What you're witnessing right now is not normal price action.

It's not "weak hands."
It's not sentiment.
And it's definitely not retail selling.

Most people have no idea what's actually happening.

And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is already done.

This collapse didn't begin today.

It's been developing quietly beneath the surface for months.

And now it's gaining traction.

Here's the reality:

The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity disappears.

And when scarcity disappears, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being dictated by derivatives.

That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin.

And it's the same structural shift that already happened to:
→ Gold
→ Silver
→ Oil
→ Equities

The original Bitcoin thesis is broken.

Bitcoin's valuation was built on two foundations:
→ A hard cap of 21 million coins
→ No rehypothecation

That framework ended the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain:
→ Cash-settled futures
→ Perpetual swaps
→ Options
→ ETFs
→ Prime broker lending
→ Wrapped BTC
→ Total return swaps

From that point, Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE.

Not on-chain.

But in price discovery, which is what actually matters.

Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR).

The metric that explains everything.

Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer reacts to demand.

It reacts to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows.

Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin.

They're not guessing direction.

They're doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market:
1⃣ Create unlimited paper BTC
2⃣ Short into rallies
3⃣ Trigger liquidations
4⃣ Cover lower
5⃣ Repeat

This isn't "speculation."

It's inventory creation.

They've effectively turned Bitcoin into a market where supply can be created on demand.

And they literally print their own Bitcoin out of thin air.

One real BTC can now simultaneously support:
→ An ETF share
→ A futures contract
→ A perpetual swap
→ An options delta
→ A broker loan
→ A structured note

All at THE SAME TIME.

That's six claims on one coin.

That is not a free market.

That is a fractional-reserve pricing system wearing a Bitcoin mask.

Ignore it if you want, but don't pretend you weren't warned.

I've been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade now, and I'll do it again in 2026.

Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.

You don't want to miss my next call.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

Funds used to inflate their real demand for IPOs during the book building process for a higher allocations.

Same as retails, if they believe the allotment raito is low, they may tend to apply for a bigger size.

End up everyone got more than they wish to own? 🤔

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

Question: If $SPCX IPO is 2x oversubscribed, retails from different countries (not just the US) have access to the IPO. Who will be the buyers on debut date🤔? (Hong Kong and China?)

Remarks: China just banned more accounts from overseas investment.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

$CIFR

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

$CIFR CEO Tyler Page says the company may generate its own power on-site to move faster on AI data center demand.

Hyperscalers need power faster and Cipher may be able to “tap the pipeline” instead of waiting years on the grid.

[Gary Black @garyblack00]

One can also interpret this as JP Morgan did not want to miss out on what is likely to be a huge payday for brokers on the $SPCX IPO and decided now was a good time to remove $TSLA coverage from long-term $TSLA bear Ryan Brinkman who was unlikely to be helpful in pitching SPCX. There is a theoretical Chinese wall between research and banking at brokers but sometimes that wall is lower than at other times of high IPO activity.

Separately, the broker community is now posting fairly aggressive revenue and earnings forecasts for SpaceX. This is typical for IPOs when brokers will argue for bigger allocations for their clients for the normal Day 1 pop after the IPO price is set.

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

These are the wordings they use...

[Stanphyl Capital 🇺🇸 🇮🇱 🇺🇦 @StanphylCap]

Let me tanslate sell-side investment banking-speak for those of you unfamiliar with the lingo:

"10x oversubscribed" = 2x the offering size

"5x oversubscribed" = exactly the offering size

"2x oversubscribed" (as claimed below) = 50% of the offering size

$SPCX

[Eddy @eddy_ip]

Prefer missing the possible upside of this $SPCX IPO rather than being others' exit liquidity...

[Grant Hesser @GrantHesser]

Here's my assessment of what's going on inside Goldman and Morgan Stanley right about now around the $SPCX IPO.

1) The math isn't mathing for institutional investors to participate at $135/sh in the size they need them to. Research is being heavily pressured by banking to get more aggressive on their estimates/teach-in materials to try to make valuation make sense. It's not working. The biggest brass across the firms are now getting involved - Jamie Dimon & David Solomon are taking meetings - it's all hands on deck.

2) Accordingly, the bookrunners are increasing the % of the deal allocated to retail to 30%. Remember, it's the banks buying the shares from the company and if their largest institutional relationships aren't biting in the size they need them to - they have to find demand somewhere else they're going to be on the hook for the delta between $135/sh and wherever the stock trades multiplied by the number of shares left in inventory. Find the demand - whoever and whatever it takes.

3) Banks are also pressuring the index providers to create forced buying as well across a ton of indices and their associated products. This has worked in some places and hasn't in others (credit to S&P for their backbone here). This will create a large amount of demand but I don't know the math here relative to the float coming public - if anyone has seen smart math here please share.

All and all, this is going to be a fascinating IPO to watch but I have next to zero interest in participating - I suspect I'm in the majority here.