Eddy Travia

#Blockchain #Bitcoin since 2013. @CoinsiliumGroup @ForzaBitcoin @Yellow @Otomato_xyz @Predictive_Labs @Propex_app @GreengageCo @joinindorse @ssv_network

[Eddy Travia @eddybitcoin]

Thanks @AlexisYellow - always a pleasure talking about @Yellow with @KevinWSHPod 🌞

[Alexis Sirkia @AlexisYellow]

Great start to the morning tuning into @eddybitcoin and @KevinWSHPodt. Appreciate the nod to Yellow! 🤝

[Coinsilium @CoinsiliumGroup]

🙌🤝⬇️

[nijinn @nijinn_official]

So... first full day at @WebSummit in Lisbon!

We're here with @Predictive_Labs and @CoinsiliumGroup, ready to meet some great people, talk prediction markets and give Nijinn a first proper spin in front of the crowd!

[nijinn @nijinn_official]

We’re at Web Summit Lisbon this week.

@johann_evrard and @NicosiaAlexis are showing nijinn, the discovery terminal for prediction markets. It reads Polymarket, Kalshi and the rest of the board in one place.

If you trade, build or invest in prediction markets, come find us. We’ll show you what the venues can’t.

Details in the comments 👇

[Kevin Follonier - MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

@CoinsiliumGroup Nijinn - US Presidential Election 2028: https://t.co/o1k9e4SAP5

[Kevin Follonier - MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

Gm Folks
We are back!

This is another edition of the Predict Alpha Report, our bi-monthly collaboration with @CoinsiliumGroup tracking the rise of prediction markets, event-driven finance, and the growing role of AI agents within it. Each edition focuses on the signals that matter, from capital flows and fundraising activity to regulatory shifts and product innovation. As information is increasingly priced in real time by both humans and machines, the Predict Alpha Report will track where these signals lead.
But first, let’s get this part out of the way:

Always DYOR:
This bulletin is for informational purposes only and contains summaries of news articles originally published by third-party media outlets. Please refer to the full disclaimer at the end of the post.

Now, let’s get started.
Here are the highlights:

💸 Capital Signals
👉$40 Billion Valuation
👉Overtaking Crypto Revenue
👉Coinbase, Too
👉Nijinn Launches Free Public Platform with Dedicated 2028 US Presidential Election Dashboard

📈 Industry Pulse
👉NBA 🤝Kalshi et Polymarket
👉Kalshi, Kalshi
👉Non-expiring Contracts
👉All in One Place

💸 Capital Signals

💰$40 Billion Valuation

@Kalshi has raised $1 billion in a new Series G round at a $40 billion valuation, nearly doubling its valuation from $22 billion in May and marking a 20x increase from $2 billion in June 2025. The round was co-led by Sequoia Capital and Wellington Management, with Tiger Global and Dragoneer also participating. Annualized trading volume across the platform now exceeds $1 trillion, with more than 30 million accounts created on the platform.

Sports still make up roughly 80% of its prediction market volume, but the company is pushing further into crypto, commodities, and other financial products, including perpetual futures that have already generated $83 billion in trading volume since launching a few months ago. Kalshi also plans to expand internationally and develop products tied to stocks and indexes, while CEO @mansourtarek_ has acknowledged discussions around a potential IPO.

💰Overtaking Crypto Revenue

Revenue from @RobinhoodApp's prediction market business jumped more than sixfold year over year to $173 million in Q3 2026, overtaking crypto revenue, which fell 55% to $120 million. Its Rothera exchange, launched with Susquehanna International Group, processed 3.4 billion contracts and generated more than $100 million in its first full quarter, putting the business on track to reach a $1 billion annual revenue run rate.

Meanwhile,

💰Coinbase, Too

@Coinbase’s prediction markets business more than doubled in the third quarter, passing a $200 million annualized revenue run rate from just over $100 million in Q2. Daily active traders rose more than 60% quarter over quarter, and more than half of trading activity came from non-sports contracts. The growth stood out against a lower quarter for Coinbase’s core crypto business, with total transaction revenue falling 1% from Q2 and 44% from a year earlier.

The next step is about improving the economics. Coinbase currently routes prediction market trades through outside venues such as Kalshi, meaning part of the revenue is lost to exchange and clearing fees. In September, Coinbase secured CFTC approval for Coinbase Clearing LLC, giving it the regulatory infrastructure to eventually list, broker, and clear its own contracts. That would allow the platform to keep more of the fees generated by prediction markets and settle trades directly in USDC.

And rounding up this section:

💰Nijinn Launches Free Public Platform with Dedicated 2028 US Presidential Election Dashboard

@Predictive_Labs has launched the free public version of @nijinn_official, a prediction-market discovery terminal comparing markets across Kalshi, Polymarket, and Limitless. Coinciding with the company’s presence at Web Summit, the release includes a dedicated 2028 US Presidential Election dashboard, enabling users to explore election-related markets and compare probabilities across venues. The launch builds on Nijinn’s US Midterms dashboard, with additional venues, including Crypto_com, planned.

Predictive Labs is exhibiting at Web Summit Lisbon from 9 to 12 November 2026, with founder @johann_evrard showcasing Nijinn alongside leading figures in AI and blockchain.

📌 FYI: Predictive Labs is backed by Gibraltar-based venture builder, Coinsilium Group. Coinsilium’s shares are traded on the Aquis Stock Exchange Growth Market in London, under the ticker symbol "COIN", and on the OTCQB Venture Market in the United States under the ticker symbol "CINGF".

But it’s not just capital flowing into the space.
Keep reading for the latest signals in regulation, adoption, and structure.

📈 Industry Pulse

⚡️NBA 🤝Kalshi et Polymarket

The NBA has named Kalshi and Polymarket as its preferred prediction market platforms, giving both companies access to official league data and permission to use NBA branding on their platforms. The agreements also create an integrity framework around NBA-related markets, including information sharing, limits on certain contracts, and restrictions preventing league and team personnel from trading on NBA events. The league has also signed an agreement with the CFTC to help identify suspicious trading and potential misuse of inside information.

The partnership is another sign that prediction markets are moving deeper into mainstream U.S. sports, following similar deals involving the NHL and Major League Baseball.

⚡️Kalshi, Kalshi

Kalshi has received CFTC clearance to list more than 50 perpetual futures tied to individual stocks, including Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Microsoft, and Amazon. Trading began on November 3 with contracts linked to Costco, McDonald’s, Qualcomm, and Amgen. Unlike regular futures, these contracts do not expire, giving traders ongoing exposure to a stock’s price without having to roll into a new contract every few months.

At the same time,

Kalshi has also filed rule changes that would let it list perpetual futures on newly public companies as soon as two business days after an IPO. Under the new rules, a company trading for less than a month could become eligible once at least 2.4 million shares have changed hands, while certain early price-history requirements would also be temporarily waived for companies valued at $3 billion or more at the time of their offering.

This means Kalshi could offer stock-linked products much closer to an IPO, similar to the faster timelines already used by major options exchanges such as Cboe and NYSE American. While Kalshi’s other eligibility rules remain strict, the filing fits a broader pattern as the platform pushes beyond prediction markets and deeper into traditional derivatives, where offering quicker exposure to newly public companies could matter more to institutional traders.

⚡️Non-expiring Contracts

@OG_com and @Cryptocom have launched regulated crypto perpetual futures for eligible U.S. traders, giving users access to non-expiring contracts with 24/7 trading and leverage of up to 5x. Crypto_com has registered as an Introducing Broker with the National Futures Association, allowing orders placed through its app and exchange to be routed into OG_com’s federally regulated exchange, clearinghouse, and brokerage infrastructure.

The launch gives Crypto_com users a way to take long or short positions on major cryptocurrencies without having to roll contracts as they expire, while also keeping spot trading, derivatives, and prediction markets within the same ecosystem. More broadly, it reflects the growing push to bring products that have traditionally been popular on offshore crypto exchanges into regulated U.S. markets, with firms increasingly competing on who can offer the widest range of derivatives under a federal framework.

⚡️All in One Place

@BinanceUS is planning a broader trading platform that could eventually bring prediction markets, spot crypto, and other financial products into one place. CEO Steve Gregory said the company is targeting the first half of 2027 for a prediction market launch, subject to regulatory approval, and has already applied for a CFTC-designated contract market license. The idea is to build an “everything exchange” where customers can move across different products without leaving the BinanceUS ecosystem.

The bigger challenge is regulation rather than technology. Gregory said BinanceUS already has surveillance and compliance systems in place, including Nasdaq’s SMARTS technology, but still needs clearer rules around issues such as insider information and election contracts. With more crypto exchanges, including Coinbase expanding beyond crypto into prediction markets and derivatives, offering several products in one venue is an increasingly important advantage.

And that’s it!
Long read, but if you enjoyed this, set a reminder in your calendar for the next edition of the Predict Alpha Report.

Thanks to Coinsilium, we’ll be dropping these updates every other Monday, i.e., twice a month.

Till then,

Thank you for being a part of the When Shift Happens family.

Full Disclaimer
All rights to the original content belong to the respective publishers. We do not claim ownership of any third-party material and provide proper attribution, including source links, for transparency and reference. While we strive for accuracy in our summaries, we make no warranties or guarantees regarding the completeness or accuracy of the information provided.

Any mention of cryptocurrency, financial products, public company stocks, or other investment instruments in this newsletter or the referenced articles is not intended as financial advice or a recommendation to invest. The information is not tailored to any individual’s circumstances and should not be relied upon for investment decisions. Readers are encouraged to consult the original articles and seek independent financial, legal, or professional advice before making any investment.

The author(s) of this report may hold, directly or indirectly, positions in the securities or digital assets (including shares or tokens) of the company(ies) or project(s) mentioned herein. Any such holdings are disclosed for transparency and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any financial instrument.

[nijinn @nijinn_official]

100%... and this is exactly why we’re building Nijinn!

prediction markets are becoming a go-to source of information... now we need to make all that data easier for everyone to access and understand

[Diego CEO Yellow @DiegoMYellow]

Something has emerged on the XRP Ledger.

The next chapter starts now.

https://t.co/wKIdweanJe

[Predictive Labs @Predictive_Labs]

Over a week since @nextpredictio NYC, and we're still thinking about the conversations that came out of it 🗽

We joined as a Silver Partner, with our founder & CEO @johann_evrard on the Data Integrity Layer panel.

The core question: prediction markets are only as trustworthy as the data that settles them. As markets multiply, how does that data stay accurate and hard to manipulate?

The consensus: far more contracts are coming, across far more real-world events. The data layer has to scale with them.

That's what we're building at @nijinn_official.

Next stop: Web Summit Lisbon.

If you'll be there, DMs are open.

[Johann Evrard @johann_evrard]

I had the pleasure of being interviewed by Karry Lai of Futures & Options World (@FOWgroup) about prediction markets in APAC: regulation across the region, where the first movers might come from, and the role of the intelligence layer we're building at Predictive Labs.

Thanks to Karry and the FOW team.

https://t.co/X4CE2K5cVS

#predictivelabs #nijinn #apac #predictionmarkets

[Yellow @Yellow]

Institutions don’t ask “how fast?”
They ask “what happens if the other side fails?”

On Yellow, custody sits on-chain in ChannelHub, not with any node. Every state is co-signed and versioned. If a counterparty goes silent, the latest signed state is enforceable on the base layer.

[Coinsilium @CoinsiliumGroup]

Thank you @StockBoxMedia for the opportunity - CEO Eddy Travia talks about the latest portfolio developments and plans for growth into 2027. @Yellow @otomato_xyz

[Coinsilium @CoinsiliumGroup]

Thank you @proactive_x 🙏 @Yellow @otomato_xyz

[Eddy Travia @eddybitcoin]

@brian_armstrong @tradfi I also hold just one stock: $COIN (Coinsilium Group) traded on Aquis Exchange 🇬🇧

[Coinsilium @CoinsiliumGroup]

This ⬇️

[Kevin Follonier - MR SHIFT 🦁 @KevinWSHPod]

Over the last 5 weeks, our podcast episodes have all reached between 115k-423K views on YouTube except one at 34k views (which used to be a good number for us just 6 months ago)

@cz_binance : 423K and 114K views respectively
@gametheorizing : 34K views
@RaoulGMI : 224K views
@DTAPCAP : 145K views

The average view per episode on YouTube alone is 188K views

And these views keep growing and compounding by the day

The outlier pods used to be a few hundred K views and the normality used to be 20-40K. Now the outlier is 35K views

The When Shift Happens Shift is Happening

[Eddy Travia @eddybitcoin]

Coinsilium executive team growing in Gibraltar 🇬🇮 🙌 !

[Coinsilium @CoinsiliumGroup]

Appointment of Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director

Gibraltar, 29 October 2026 – Coinsilium Group Limited (AQSE: COIN | OTCQB: CINGF), the Aquis-quoted digital asset growth and frontier technology venture builder (“Coinsilium” or the “Company”), is pleased to announce the appointment of Wayne Almeida as Chief Operating Officer (“COO”), effective from 1 November 2026. Wayne, who has served as a Non-Executive Director since September 2021, will transition to Executive Director with effect from the same date. $COIN.AQ 🇬🇧 $CINGF 🇺🇸 #Aquis #OTCQB

https://t.co/Qf0mVeH8Ha

[Otomato 🔴 @otomato_xyz]

Introducing Otomato Terminal, the fair memecoin terminal.

We've spent years building on-chain analytics for DeFi. Now we're bringing it to memecoins.

Our AI reads every coin across hundreds of on-chain data points, scores it from 0 to 99, and tells you why in one sentence.

The best assets rise to the top. The traps don't.

Live now on @RobinhoodCrypto.

[Eddy Travia @eddybitcoin]

@johann_evrard @CVDaily 🙌

[Yellow @Yellow]

Bridging institutional finance with digital asset infrastructure.

@CoinsiliumGroup's public commitment reinforces the core mission at Yellow: deploying enterprise-grade continuous netting to XRPL's native markets to unlock deeper liquidity and seamless execution.

[Otomato 🔴 @otomato_xyz]

Ghosts is live! 👻

Paste your wallet and watch your memecoin trades come back to haunt you.

Your fumbles, your rugs, your "I should've held" moments, all in one story.

Then we race your real PnL against 6 smarter versions of you. See how many beat you 👀⬇