Eddie Hopkins

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

2026 Macro Setup – Inflection Points to Watch

A speculation on the next moves, based on current trend structure:

• S&P 500 rolls over into Q3/Q4 → tests its 3-yr MA (~15–17% drawdown from ATH).
• Gold extends bounce toward ~$5,300 → then retraces to its 200-day MA near ~$4,000 (getting pulled down by equities)
• Silver pushes to ~$90–$100 → then pulls back toward prior breakout ~$55–$60.
• DXY chops sideways then recovers from its 2008 rising support breakdown → rallies back toward the 3-yr MA (~102–103).
• Oil grinds up toward ~$75.
If these levels hit, they likely mark the next major inflection.

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@DVSignals Ive been watching that same bull flag...much higher and it looks like it'll play out to the top of your green parallel channel, like you said. If the bull flag itself moves up, I have 120 as the measured move!

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@LowerCosta Thanks Charlie

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@badcharts1 Once that horizontal support breaks, look out below 😵

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

Just wondering why the difference in rationale or if I was missing some indicator...The length of a correction is not a problem at all! Gives me time to stack coins. I hear what you're saying and appreciate your point of distance from long-term MAs...It makes sense to be skeptical until that distance is reset more. I likely won't be buying any long-dated call options before that that distance from MA comes down to earth more.

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@graddhytrading Still back testing it's breakdown though?

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

Gold miners (ASA) vs gold and spx

Back testing breakouts/support on both charts, right up against very long-term resistance versus the SPX.

Staying above the back testing line is critical. Also, distance from moving average is very stretched on this longer time frame, which might indicate that more time is needed as a means of correction.

$gdx $asa $spy $spx

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

TLT

Watch the dotted black line. A break below there signals much downside below. Already break down on the distance from the 36 month moving average, as well as below volume-defined support.

First and second downside targets at the red lines, should a breakout below the dotted black line occur.

A breakout below the long-term down sloping black resistance line from previous highs and/or the current parallel channel would suggest a shift in market structure towards bullish and invalidate the bear thesis.

#tlt

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@NorthstarCharts Would be very interested to hear your data-driven take on climate change narratives someday! I realize that's probably a large task to explain your views in full though 🙂

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

DXY

A breakout above the black resistance line would indicate significant upside in the dollar. So far the dollar has tried to break down twice from the trendline tracing back to 2008 and covid lows, failing to hold that breakdown below that trend line.

$dxy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

SPX and Nasdaq: breakout or bust?

Both the SPX and the NASDAQ are back testing breakouts from very long-term channels (the SPX Channel traces back from the 1929 and dotcom bubble peaks). Top of the channels are marked with the black line on the SPX and the green line on the NASDAQ.

While bounced from here might be expected, a monthly close below these lines would signal a false breakout, with potentially significant downside underneath.

Much depends on what yields and the dollar do, it seems.

$spx $spy $qqq

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

US Yields VS Gold

Some alarm bells going off for the yields right now. The two-year, 20-year, and 30-year are all in massive bull flags or pennants on their own charts, and are looking to break out versus gold, as seen below. If we see breakouts on their own charts at the same time as they are breaking out versus gold, that tells you that the move is likely for real.

$tlt $gld

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@DVSignals Yup...got the same chart. I'm expecting a move to atleast the black dotted line.

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

DXY

Right now the dollar is at resistance, as shown by the descending purple resistance line. But if the dollar can get above the black upsloping resistance line, then it would be breaking out of a broadening channel. Could see upside from there all the way to 106...

$dxy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

Possible distribution pattern at the top of a broadening wedge occurring for the SPX.

Contingencies are that today's drop is a weekly pivot high, and that we drop through a couple support levels/lines--including the about 100-year channel that the SPX just broke out of.

A target for the drop that would make sense would be the .5 fib retracement, which lines up with previous all-time highs at 7,000. This represents an 8% drop from all time highs and a 6% drop from current levels.

It confirmed break out above the blue resistance line that forms the top of the broadening channel would negate the notion of a distribution pattern forming.

$spx $spy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

1987 crash analog to present day?

See charts below. You can make an argument for there being a similar structure that led to the 1987 crash to today. The 1987 crash happened at the top of a long-standing cup, as well as at a long-term Fibonacci extension target.

A similar pattern can be noted in present day. However, the cup isn't as clearly formed and price is already retraced and then surpassed the Fibonacci extension target. So, a melt up or blow up top over the next couple years seems like the more likely scenario at the moment.

$spx $spy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

SPX Bubble Roadmap

See the caption in the chart. SPX has broken out and back tested the resistance line from the 1929 and 2000 bubble tops. Based on past moves, we should expect to see about a 98% gained from the breakout over 2 to 2.5 years (to about 13,500) followed by no new nominal highs for 15 to 25 years.

Any move confirmed below the upper black support line, prior to a blow off top, negate this thesis.

$spx $spy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

SPX Bubble Roadmap

See the caption in the chart. SPX has broken out and back tested the resistance line from the 1929 and 2000 bubble tops. Based on past moves, we should expect to see about a 98% gained from the breakout over 2 to 2.5 years (to about 13,500) followed by no new nominal highs for 15 to 25 years.

Any move confirmed below the upper black support line, prior to a blow off top, negate this thesis.

$spx $spy

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

@garysavage1 Isn't it a bit earlier for a half 8-year cycle low in the metals?

[Eddie Hopkins @EdFH1992]

Uranium set to take off. Long term $300 spot target. First $150.

Many uranium equities today are breaking out, consolidating bullishly below long-term resistance, or consolidating bullishly on a retrace after having broken through long-term resistance.

$ura $uroy $ltbr $ux #uranium