Markets are extremely smart. If the US thinks the answer to out-of-control deficits is to artificially cap long-term yields, markets know exactly what game is being played. It's no accident silver is up 10% since Wednesday. They know this is debasement...
https://t.co/Fw7NxI1YfN
One of the stock market's most important warning signs is getting louder.
Junk bond spreads and equities usually move together.
When they don't, pay attention.
CCC-rated spreads have been widening for eight months while the S&P 500 has continued climbing to new highs.
A similar divergence preceded the 2022 market peak.
Credit markets may be flashing a warning that stock market bulls can't afford to ignore.
See our analysis and outlook for stocks, gold & silver, forex, interest rates and more: https://t.co/BDR0ZpxGc9
It’s not QE and it’s not yield-curve control. But if Treasury increasingly buys back long-duration debt and replaces it with bills, it is effectively conducting a Treasury-led Operation Twist: removing duration from the market to put downward pressure on long-term borrowing costs.
Combine that with Bessent’s push to expand the Fed’s FIMA repo facility, allowing foreign governments to pledge their US Treasuries as collateral and borrow dollars rather than having to sell those Treasuries outright.
The message is becoming abundantly clear: the US Treasury does not want higher long-term rates. More importantly, it wants to prevent forced or destabilizing selling of US government bonds, especially at the long end.
Gold understands the message.
It’s up more than 3% today.