Ed Brown

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

All-cause mortality in the US seems to be reasonably close to baseline expectations at this point. A thread with a few findings.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@comradetrend @LeighWolf Why not do that before mailing the ballot?

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@CookResearcher @afshineemrani I suspect you are much better informed than I am in this area.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@howardpinsky @CookResearcher @afshineemrani No. That is the absolute wrong mindset.

Believe that this hypothesis-generating work’s results are strong enough to justify funding RCTs to see if it checks out.

Believe it is possibly correct. Or even believe it is likely correct. Don’t just “believe” it.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@CookResearcher @afshineemrani He covered that in tweet 5 of 5. I think you guys agree on the facts, and on the need for more studies.

I would say you guys have a difference of opinion/interpretation. It may take a few years before we learn which of you is closer to correct.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@afshineemrani I sincerely appreciate these caveats being added to the thread.

I share your optimism and agree on the need for RCTs.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@Richard_She @anish_koka I am not an expert so happy to be corrected…

Many highly plausible hypotheses don’t hold up when we run experiments. This one may or may not. Agreed that it seems plausible, but I suspect it’ll offer modest benefits if it is actually tested in a RCT.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@TahoeSux @Truth_in_Number I am OK with banning your house but I would like to keep my cat and my car.

😜

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@KalmiaLatifolia @DrJMarine Please provide a link to the controlled clinical trials in children that demonstrated the benefits to children of the vaccine.

For extra credit you can explain why so few of our peer nations recommended universal vaccination in children. They must not know what they’re doing…

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @0rf There were emails from him early on explaining why masks weren’t effective in the general public. Later he changed his tune — with no new evidence.

The guy is a politician and science administrator, not a scientist.

I think you are going too easy on him.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@JohnSkylar @jsm2334 @0rf This is also wrong. There is little evidence cloth masks help against influenza either. The assumption that it was useful to model it based on the flu was generally an excellent idea. Where they went most wrong is when they departed from that model.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @0rf Are you of the opinion it is OK for public health officials to knowingly lie to the public as long as their intentions were pure?

I think it is both (a) wrong, and (b) counterproductive. It absolutely tanks their credibility.

When should we believe them if this is what they do?

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @NoToAllGMOs @SharylAttkisson That is your inference. I can’t say that you are wrong. I don’t know.

But my inference is he doesn’t listen very well and he is not very bright and this is yet another example of that.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @NoToAllGMOs @SharylAttkisson He is not someone you should take medical advice from. I think people are aware he is not an expert in this area.

It’d be nice if he could get a briefing from experts before speaking, and then retain that info and echo it back. But I don’t think he is able to…

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@Truth_in_Number I watched the clip, and I took his meaning to be: ‘we ought to have the cure by now but we don’t for <reasons>’

He didn’t say he cured anything.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @DrJMarine @kenjaques He did not do a good job of communicating evidence, and did very poorly at expressing the limits of our knowledge at any given time.

“Frequently wrong, but never in doubt” was his style.

He is an arrogant narcissist in my opinion.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@crabb_vicki @DrJMarine The study covers less than 2 months of the pandemic. Very early, preliminary work.

Why would you want to ignore more than 90% of the data?

If you like this study design you’d want to see it repeated on the data accumulated over the entire pandemic.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@crabb_vicki @DrJMarine Look at the date of that publication.

You are presenting as definitive something that was published in June 2020.

Consider how much data was collected after that publication date.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@joadomeit @DrJMarine Please insert the phrase “well fitted N95 or better” prior to each time you use mask.

Also please share the evidence you have of protective effect. Mechanistically it’s highly likely they are protective against covid transmission but I’ve never seen any high quality data on it.

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@jsm2334 @SteveDu56581507 @DrJMarine @kenjaques I agree with your precise language 100% and I think that your clarifications are helpful.

One comment I would make on your last sentence - that one could be more precise. Let us say “already know and discussed by *some* scientists, albeit not widely accepted by society.”

[Ed Brown @efb_1]

@DrJMarine @Sensible__Med I read this yesterday and I was saddened. It is pathetic. I don’t want to write a rebuttal on my phone so that is my whole tweet.