1/ Most traders watch one chart.
The problem? Modern markets are driven by positioning across ETFs, indices, futures, institutions, and retail traders.
That's why cross-referencing option chains matters.
Oil is heading back toward its 20-day average around $97.
The reaction in bonds and equities remains muted. That speaks volumes. Markets are already pricing a deal.
Overnight we got more of the usual headlines.
"Self defence."
"Retaliation for attacks."
"Targeted."
"Limited."
And risk assets barely reacted, bcause the market is fully priced for a 60-day ceasefire MOU and some form of agreement to reopen Hormuz. That remains the base case.
But the clock is ticking. There is plenty of debate around reserve levels and how much longer this can continue. What there is broad agreement on is that meaningful shipping traffic needs to be flowing again before the end of July.
For now, traders are willing to wait. But markets are not infinitely patient. At some point, if the headline does not cross the wires, the market will start questioning the assumption that a deal is imminent.
Until then, muted reactions tell you everything you need to know.