Right instinct, wrong label. Consolidation preceding expansion is real β vol clusters. But the squeeze isn't the expansion, it's the compression before it. The squeeze is the coil; the breakout is the release. Nail that distinction and you're ahead of most adults doing this....keep at it
@unusual_whales That guy is a clown. Come on just a talking head / never ran money. Nothing to see move along ...... broken β°οΈ clock comment so typical of his kind.
Careful reading this as a sell signal. Most of the drift below ~290 is structural β the pod complex runs high-gross/low-net by mandate, so gross can pin at extremes indefinitely with nothing broken.
What matters isn't the level, it's the convexity. Gross is the concentration net conceals: realized downside *conditional* on a shock is far worse than a mean-only read prices. Coincident crowding gauge at best, lagging at worst. Earns its keep as a regime-conditional risk multiplier, not a standalone node.
hmmmm- not so fast - this is what the data really says - The actual signature
Β What you've got is a complacent body with a paranoid tail: near-the-money wings calm (RRβ1.5, VIX 15.7, contango), but the deep tail bid up (SKEW 139.5) and retail piling into leverage. That's a recognizable late-cycle fingerprint / fragile if something lights it /...
Β but the surface is pricing calm, not imminent reversion.
Β Bottom line: The tweet found real kindling (elevated tail hedging + big levered-long AUM) and then narrated it into a dated countdown the data doesn't support.
Traders version: tail's bid, retail's levered, body's calm, term structure says no stress yet β watch for
Β the contango-to-backwardation flip, not a calendar.
Jeff Bezos: "If we ran Amazon the way New York City runs their school system, the packages would take 6 weeks to arrive, we would charge you a $100 delivery fee and when the package did finally arrive, it would have the wrong item in it anyway."
@TheBatSignals@KobeissiLetter Valuation...since when has that mattered.. ah, https://t.co/BUz4Pmf8S9, https://t.co/uiwYat8sM8. I was the trader on those......was all about value....a...tions.
@BillAckman Its sad. But the ROOT of this cancer is not just the CLOWN mammmmmduchie...but all the cancerous people that voted for him...we need to get them all out of our city