@stacycay@maiamindel the real genius is that the writers are making you think and debate about what the ending means, and how you interpret Marty Mauser after seeing his arc
@maiamindel It was clearly obvious that the baby put his entire life in perspective and it was a moment of ego death. His old life was over and he was reborn
Timothée Chalamet and Josh Safdie were asked about #MartySupreme ‘s ending at a Q&A I attended on November 14 at the Academy Theater. They had salient thoughts on the matter.
James Cameron says he doesn’t think about the Academy Awards as they "don’t tend to honor sci-fi films", naming Denis Villeneuve’s ‘Dune’ movies as examples:
"I don’t think about the Academy Awards that much intentionally. They don’t tend to honor sci-fi films. It’s almost never properly recognized. Denis Villeneuve made these 2 magnificent ‘Dune’ films. Apparently these films made themselves because he wasnt considered as a director."
(Via @HertzBarry)
Okay, here's where we're at....
- 19 separate films received mentions across AFI, CCA, Globes, HCA, and NBR.
- 4 films landed all five mentions. Since 2017, 100% of films hitting all five have gone on to make the Oscar 10; so these titles are essentially as safe as it gets, barring some historic phase-two meltdown we'd be talking about for years.
- 5 films showed up in 4 of the 5 groups. Since 2017, 81% of films that hit four of the five went on to make the Oscar 10. At this point, it all comes down to guild support in the coming weeks (though I think we can all agree that Hamnet missing NBR was a fluke; it’s in.). SAG nomination morning is going to be **massive** for the chances of JK and Wicked in particular. Train Dreams could use a PGA mention or BAFTA longlist overperformance. Bugonia needs to keep the momentum going.
- 2 films appeared in 3 of the 5. Since 2017, only 44% of films hitting three of the five made the Oscar 10; however, that number jumps to 67% under the “hard 10” ballot era. And frankly, I think both IWJAA and SV are getting in regardless.
- 2 films appeared in 2 of the 5. Since 2017, only 19% of films hitting just two of the five made the Oscar 10. Industry support in the weeks ahead will be crucial for these titles if they want to overcome the "slow start."
- 6 films managed only 1 of the 5. Since 2017, just 13% of films with a single mention made the Oscar 10. Of this group, I only see The Secret Agent as a plausible contender capable of overcoming the slow start.
- I do not think we'll see a film that didn't make any of these get into the Oscar 10. Those tend to be late-surging international films, and no major international player is being quiet right now.
@MendezMovieRPT Benicio the frontrunner just becase of critics' groups? C'mon. You're making the same mistake as people who predicted Marianne Jean-Baptiste last year
Awards season doesn't work that simple for predicting the Oscars
Next week and next Monday are going to be do-or-die for some of these Best Picture hopefuls.
If a film manages to get into all five of AFI, CCA, Globes, HCA, and NBR; it’s essentially a lock for the Oscar Best Picture lineup.
Going 4/5 (looking at the HCA misses: Avatar, Ann Lee, Rental Family, Secret Agent, etc) keeps a film in very strong shape to get in but its not completely out of the woods yet; still very likely in, provided it performs well with the industry guilds and shows up well enough at BAFTA.
Hitting 3/5 or lower means the path gets tougher. Those films will need to make sure they overperform in early January when nominations for the guilds roll out. But since the Academy went to a hard 10, hitting "just" 3/5 has been a little less of a bad omen against a film.
And the films that go 0/5 but still make it? It can happen, but it's almost always international titles that get a late surge. If you’re an American production and can’t crack any of these 5 groups, the Best Picture race is likely over for you.