Jake Wilkinson

NU ‘22 | preparing for the collapse of the westphalian state system | Midwest Best West | he/him/they/them

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

if you kill bugs for no reason we can’t be friends

[Hamidreza Azizi @HamidRezaAz]

A Day 3 recap of the war (with focus on Iranian strategic narrative):

🔹CENTCOM confirms that U.S. strikes on Iranian missile bases used B-1 bombers. The U.S. is trying to dismantle Iran’s fortified underground missile facilities.

🔹Iranian reports suggest Tehran has rejected multiple mediation attempts. Tehran’s apparent assessment is that it can sustain high-intensity conflict for 60-90 days, making early ceasefire acceptance strategically disadvantageous.

🔹Ali Larijani explicitly framed the war as a contest of endurance, stating Iran – unlike the United States – is prepared for a prolonged conflict. The objective appears to be altering Washington’s cost-benefit calculations over time.

🔹Iranian strategic discourse increasingly describes the conflict as a “war without rules” or a “game without red lines,” signaling deliberate unpredictability intended to reshape deterrence dynamics after leadership decapitation failed to halt Iran’s response.

🔹A related concept emerging in Iranian messaging is operating “one level above” adversary actions, i.e., delivering escalatory responses even to indirect threats in order to redefine escalation thresholds.

🔹This logic appears reflected in Iranian strikes toward British facilities in Cyprus, interpreted domestically as retaliation for London allowing U.S. access to Diego Garcia despite not joining offensive operations.

🔹One of the most consequential developments was the loss of three U.S. F-15 aircraft, initially claimed by Iran as shootdowns but later attributed to friendly fire from Kuwaiti air defenses, highlighting the growing risks of coalition battlefield congestion.

🔹Analysts close to Iranian security circles describe a layered missile strategy: first targeting radar systems, then launching low-cost drones and missiles to exhaust air-defense interceptors before deploying advanced weapons later.

🔹Iran’s continuous missile launches therefore appear designed less for immediate damage and more for attritional depletion of U.S. and Israeli defensive systems over time.

🔹Uncertainty over the size and dispersal of Iran’s advanced missile stockpiles may explain intensified U.S. and Israeli strikes against underground facilities and missile infrastructure.

🔹President Pezeshkian expanded emergency authorities across ministries and provincial administrations to ensure continuity of governance, deepening wartime decentralization already initiated before the conflict.

🔹Israel’s targeting pattern has become clearer: strikes now heavily focus on intelligence ministries, police headquarters, IRGC district bases, and internal security institutions, suggesting systematic erosion of regime coercive capacity.

🔹Parallel strikes against western border regions and Kurdistan province have fueled Iranian fears that external actors may seek to enable insurgent infiltration as an alternative to direct ground invasion.

🔹Iran has responded by striking areas in Iraqi Kurdistan while increasing pressure along its borders, indicating concern about a potential indirect ground dimension to the war.

🔹Iran-aligned Iraqi resistance factions – including Kataib Hezbollah, Harakat al-Nujaba, and Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada – continue their operations on a limited scale, opening another attritional front against U.S. forces.

🔹Hezbollah formally confirmed its participation, firing rockets toward Haifa, though involvement remains limited due to degraded capabilities and domestic political constraints in Lebanon.

🔹Iranian sources claim prewar coordination between the Quds Force and regional partners defined phased entry into the conflict, suggesting activation of the “axis of resistance” is proceeding gradually rather than simultaneously.

🔹The IRGC has reportedly begun enforcing a de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, warning commercial vessels against transit and threatening missile strikes. This is a major escalation targeting global energy flows.

🔹Simultaneous attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure, including an Aramco facility near Ras Tanura and gas infrastructure in Qatar, indicate an effort to raise global energy prices and increase economic pressure on Washington.

🔹Iranian authorities signaled zero tolerance for dissent. IRGC intelligence warned that actions undermining stability during wartime would be treated as collaboration with the enemy, implying harsh internal repression.

🔹Negotiation signals remain contradictory. While Trump suggested a potential deal was possible, Larijani publicly rejected negotiations, reinforcing Tehran’s view that talks can occur only after strategic calculations shift.

🔹Iran’s sustained missile tempo against Israel appears designed to impose psychological as well as military pressure, keeping populations under prolonged shelter conditions while conserving firepower for a longer conflict.

🔹Overall, Day 3 shows the war evolving into simultaneous military, economic, psychological, and regional escalation far beyond bilateral confrontation.

🔹The key question now is whether expanding proxy involvement and energy warfare will force external powers into deeper participation or instead accelerate pressure for negotiated containment.

---
P.S: Not sure how long I can keep doing this!

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

taking a standardized test for the first time in 10+ years trying to remember tf soh cah toa stands for

[Roman Helmet Guy @romanhelmetguy]

Marcus Rubius appointed proconsul of Venezuela. Gavin Newsom elected President in 2028. Marcus Rubius conquers all of South America. Newsom blocks his return to run for President in 2032. Marcus Rubius leads his legions across the Panama Canal, hereafter known as “the Rubiocon.”

[ettingermentum @ettingermentum]

Can someone get this for me so I can frame it

[Cleveland Guardians @CleGuardians]

It’s only weird until it happens.

#GuardsBall

[Jo @JoJoFromJerz]

Another sadly spot-on cartoon from @NewYorker

[Caitlin Johnstone @caitoz]

The New York Times has just published an op-ed by an Israeli genocide scholar who agrees with all the other genocide scholars and human rights organizations who say Israel is committing genocide in Gaza.

The debate is over. The Israel apologists lost.

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

victreebel: the pitcher plant pokemon #Pokemon

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

i took this photo of ben and i at medieval times before realizing there was a random man in the background

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

cute lil ditto stick n poke

[OSINTdefender @sentdefender]

What an absolutely embarrassing display in the Oval Office.

[PolishHostage @PolishHostage07]

You could say, They'll try to reach an Agreement in Munich a Munich Agreement if You will

[Alec Karakatsanis @equalityAlec]

THREAD. Every day I get to work with amazing people from all walks of life who are dedicating their lives to fighting government repression and corporate predation. They do it strategically and relentlessly. The incompetence and grifting of political elites makes a mockery of it.

[Jake Wilkinson @ekaj98]

i wanna go to a garage sale

[Alf @MacroAlf]

Something big is happening in China.

For the first time ever, 2-year government bond yields in China seem headed below 1%.

Thread.

1/

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

US intelligence had warned that Russia may fire a second "Oreshnik" ballistic missile at Ukraine in the near future, likely in a continued effort to dissuade the West from providing further military assistance to Ukraine. 🧵(1/5)

[Midwest Modern @JoshLipnik]

King Koin Laundrette
Marquette, MI

[Chris 🦝 (READ BIO!!) @TrashPanda08x]

Every Commuter rail line in the United States 🧵

[B.M. @ireallyhateyou]

Israel has practically declared war on Syria with no provocation or casus belli whatsoever, announced a 50-year-old international diplomatic agreement is void, is invading another country in these very moments, and literally no one is doing, or even saying, anything about it.