“I Want To Personally Thank His Excellency, Peter Obi. He Kept Checking Up On Us. This Is Someone I Use To Criticize In The Past.”
~ Bello El-Rufai says
Very good analysis; I concur. But, what are we doing about the reoccurring decimal of rigging as a factor in Nigerian elections? How do we ensure that the 2023 orchestrated glitches are not re-enacted in 2027? Have we addressed the issue of insecurity of voters?
Peter Obi will never step down for Atiku because, at this moment, he has greater political capacity than Atiku.
Let me remind you of how the 2023 presidential election unfolded.
Out of Nigeria’s 36 states plus the FCT, Tinubu won 12 states: Benue, Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, and Zamfara.
This gave Tinubu a total of 8,794,726 votes (36.61%).
Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states: Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Osun, Sokoto, Taraba, and Yobe.
This gave Atiku 6,984,520 votes (29.07%).
Peter Obi also won 12 states: Abia, Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, and the FCT.
This gave Obi 6,101,533 votes (25.40%).
So, all three of them won 12 states each out of the 36 states.
Then we have His Excellency Engr. Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who won one state—but a state that is almost like five states in terms of its vote contribution: Kano State. Kano alone gave him a number of votes comparable to the combined votes Atiku received from Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Kebbi, as you can see from the map below 👇—not to mention the additional votes he received from other states.
Kwankwaso therefore secured 1,496,687 votes (6.23%).
Now, sit down and do the calculations yourselves. Look carefully at the gap between Peter Obi and Tinubu in 2023, considering that Obi did not have Kano or Bayelsa.
Now, the combined influence of Kwankwaso and Henry Dickson alongside Peter Obi is worth more than three million votes. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that Tinubu may not be able to reproduce his 2023 vote total in 2027.
As for Atiku, his votes in 2023 were significantly supported by the influence of the PDP establishment at the time, when the party had about 12 governors, as well as numerous senators and members of the House of Representatives. That is not the situation today, when the PDP does not have a single sitting governor.
Obi and Kwankwaso each secured nearly 8 million votes combined in 2023 without having governors, senators, or members of the House of Representatives behind them. Do you understand the level of political effort they demonstrated in 2023?
The 2027 election is not a game. Do the calculations carefully.
Atiku secured 6.9 million votes with the influence of 12 governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives, while Peter Obi secured 6.1 million votes without the backing of a single governor. So, when you consider the circumstances under which they achieved those figures, what is the significance of Obi’s performance compared with Atiku’s?
The PDP that supported Atiku in 2023 was far stronger than the ADC is today in 2027. Likewise, the present NDC coalition around Obi and Kwankwaso is stronger than the Labour Party was in 2023 because it now includes Kwankwaso and Dickson.
Similarly, the APC of 2023 was stronger than the APC of today because, in 2023, the party still enjoyed some level of goodwill among Nigerians. Today, its standing among many Nigerians has declined significantly. These are factors that should be carefully considered in any serious analysis.
Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023. This time, he could potentially add Kano, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Benue, and Rivers—a state he won in 2023 but which was lost amid the political crisis involving Wike.
Benue and Akwa Ibom were also within reach in 2023.
That would bring the potential total to 17 states.
If Obi wins 17 states, then, in my analysis, there is a possibility that he could finish first, Atiku second, and Tinubu third.
That is my analysis....✍️
--Suraj Umar
Peter Obi will never step down for Atiku because, at this moment, he has greater political capacity than Atiku.
Let me remind you of how the 2023 presidential election unfolded.
Out of Nigeria’s 36 states plus the FCT, Tinubu won 12 states: Benue, Borno, Ekiti, Jigawa, Kogi, Kwara, Niger, Ogun, Ondo, Oyo, Rivers, and Zamfara.
This gave Tinubu a total of 8,794,726 votes (36.61%).
Atiku Abubakar also won 12 states: Adamawa, Akwa Ibom, Bauchi, Bayelsa, Gombe, Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi, Osun, Sokoto, Taraba, and Yobe.
This gave Atiku 6,984,520 votes (29.07%).
Peter Obi also won 12 states: Abia, Anambra, Cross River, Delta, Ebonyi, Edo, Enugu, Imo, Lagos, Nasarawa, Plateau, and the FCT.
This gave Obi 6,101,533 votes (25.40%).
So, all three of them won 12 states each out of the 36 states.
Then we have His Excellency Engr. Dr. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who won one state—but a state that is almost like five states in terms of its vote contribution: Kano State. Kano alone gave him a number of votes comparable to the combined votes Atiku received from Borno, Gombe, Yobe, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, and Kebbi, as you can see from the map below 👇—not to mention the additional votes he received from other states.
Kwankwaso therefore secured 1,496,687 votes (6.23%).
Now, sit down and do the calculations yourselves. Look carefully at the gap between Peter Obi and Tinubu in 2023, considering that Obi did not have Kano or Bayelsa.
Now, the combined influence of Kwankwaso and Henry Dickson alongside Peter Obi is worth more than three million votes. Moreover, there is evidence to suggest that Tinubu may not be able to reproduce his 2023 vote total in 2027.
As for Atiku, his votes in 2023 were significantly supported by the influence of the PDP establishment at the time, when the party had about 12 governors, as well as numerous senators and members of the House of Representatives. That is not the situation today, when the PDP does not have a single sitting governor.
Obi and Kwankwaso each secured nearly 8 million votes combined in 2023 without having governors, senators, or members of the House of Representatives behind them. Do you understand the level of political effort they demonstrated in 2023?
The 2027 election is not a game. Do the calculations carefully.
Atiku secured 6.9 million votes with the influence of 12 governors, senators, and members of the House of Representatives, while Peter Obi secured 6.1 million votes without the backing of a single governor. So, when you consider the circumstances under which they achieved those figures, what is the significance of Obi’s performance compared with Atiku’s?
The PDP that supported Atiku in 2023 was far stronger than the ADC is today in 2027. Likewise, the present NDC coalition around Obi and Kwankwaso is stronger than the Labour Party was in 2023 because it now includes Kwankwaso and Dickson.
Similarly, the APC of 2023 was stronger than the APC of today because, in 2023, the party still enjoyed some level of goodwill among Nigerians. Today, its standing among many Nigerians has declined significantly. These are factors that should be carefully considered in any serious analysis.
Peter Obi won 12 states in 2023. This time, he could potentially add Kano, Bayelsa, Akwa Ibom, Benue, and Rivers—a state he won in 2023 but which was lost amid the political crisis involving Wike.
Benue and Akwa Ibom were also within reach in 2023.
That would bring the potential total to 17 states.
If Obi wins 17 states, then, in my analysis, there is a possibility that he could finish first, Atiku second, and Tinubu third.
That is my analysis....✍️
--Suraj Umar
Upon their arrival at Sadiq Abubakar III International Airport, Sokoto, the NDC Presidential Candidate, His Excellency Mr. Peter Obi, and the NDC Vice Presidential Candidate, His Excellency Sen. Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, PhD, FNSE, today, Monday 28th September, 2026 proceeded directly to the residence of His Royal Eminence, Muhammadu Sa'adu Abubakar III CFR, the Sultan of Sokoto, for a courtesy visit.
The gale of defections to the NDC in Northern Nigeria is rattling the APC and the ADC.
Northern Nigeria is NDC. Northern Nigeria is Peter Obi.
Peter Obi is coming.
When we think of stomach infrastructure and people whose votes are bought we always think of the poor and needy who are given a few naira notes.
We never think about the billionaires who sell their votes and support for survival!
They can never not be with government in power!
Rich in bank balance but poor in courage
If our leaders and Elders whom we love and respect so much do not want to teach us to live as one strong country, then, they would have taught us, by their actions and inactions, to tinker with the idea of looking for alternatives: e.g. going abroad!
In the Caliphate with a Message of Hope for the Poor and Unity in Nigeria.
Today, ahead of our town-hall engagements in Sokoto, Sokoto State, I had the privilege of paying a courtesy visit to His Eminence, Alhaji Muhammad Sa’ad Abubakar III, the Sultan of Sokoto, alongside my brother and running mate, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, and members of our team.
We used the opportunity of the visit to condole with him on the recent death of the Sardauna of Sokoto.
In my remarks, I emphasised the urgent need to unite and secure our nation, tackle poverty, create employment, and rebuild confidence in our country.
His Eminence warmly received us and spoke with the wisdom of a father and national leader. He recalled that he has known me for almost 46 years, since 1980, when I was in my first year at the University of Nigeria, Nsukka, and has maintained a cordial relationship since then.
He reminded us that leadership comes from Almighty Allah and carries a responsibility for which we will ultimately be held accountable. He also mentioned three critical priorities for Nigeria: security, poverty, and employment.
He additionally reminded us that our diversity of tribes, tongues, and faiths is part of God's creation and should be our strength, not our weakness. We do not seek to Islamise or Christianise anyone. We seek to build a Nigeria where every citizen can live safely, prosper, and have a genuine sense of belonging.
May Almighty God continue to bless His Eminence, the Sultan of Sokoto, the people of Sokoto State, and our beloved Nigeria.
A New Nigeria is POssible. -PO
Nigerians are wiser now; they are watching! Dividing them via religion and tribalism can no longer be sustained! They now know the truth! The French Revolution taught France a lesson! We want our own revolution via the ballot box. H E Peter Obi is coming!
Very Rev Fr. Emma Bonavee. Said....
"You don't need ICPC, EFCC or DSS to know corrupt politicians in this present political dispensation, all you need do is to listen as they speak. You will always hear them attacking Mr Peter Obi verbally...
They don't want Peter Obi on the ballot because they know that if Obi becomes president of this country, he will end corruption which is their hope of survival..."
I believe that anyone against Mr Peter Obi, either he is after something or something is after him.
Peter Obi represents the New 9ja many young Nigerians aspire to see
We are not interested in politics of tribe region religion We want a Nigeria where citizens can live with dignity, security, opportunity, a united nd prosperous nation where the welfare of the people comes first
Peter Obi represents the New 9ja many young Nigerians aspire to see
We are not interested in politics of tribe region religion We want a Nigeria where citizens can live with dignity, security, opportunity, a united nd prosperous nation where the welfare of the people comes first
1). They sowed the seeds of religious divisions
2). They made Nigerians hate themselves via tribalism.
3). While the above two were taking root, they were busy consolidating.
4). They formed a clique or class which decides who should be in Government.
5). Etc
If those who have sank this country do not want a ballot box revolution, they may be forcing the hungry and angry citizens who demand a genuine change for their only country to find another solution! H E Peter Obi is coming!