Fred Elections

18 - Princeton ‘30 - TX - conservative Republican - voting for James Talarico - HALEY2028

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@earlyvotedata she needs to grow her foreign policy expertise

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@ECaliberSeven im sorry

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@ECaliberSeven do you agree prediction markets are accurate?

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@ReubenR80027912 well paxton won the primary not cornyn

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@ZacharyDonnini oh that’s not..

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@WiRed769 i don’t think tom is great himself, it’s lean d

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@bernardbulletin how often are polls wrong by fifteen points tho

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@ZacharyDonnini @guyhanginout @JoeySchmittPhD @Uncrewed this is a great explanation, it’s a shame more people don’t understand

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@achillguy63 peltola and talarico will win, but so will husted and rogers. collins will lose but it will be close. 50 to 50

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@MappingFL are you going to keep ignoring anyone who calls you out? do you not actually understand how probabilities work or are you pretending to be slow because you hate gambling and think harassing zach for explaining it hurts kalshi? either way, you are prediction markets greatest ally

[Florida Data Geek ✝️🇺🇦🇬🇱 @MappingFL]

The prediction markets have had a rough week and now the people that Kalshi pays are suddenly making tweets about how the "data actually says these markets are great"

But Zach, trusting you/Votehub about this would be like trusting a tobacco executive on why cigarettes are safe

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@earlyvotedata imagine if she appoints ogles to senate

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@strudopi @MappingFL it doesn’t change the fact that zach is right about calibration plots

mappingfl is going to lose to pr war to prediction markets if his strategy is to lie about how predictive they are

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@TonerousHyus they should have just drawn the gerrymander

[Ryan McComb @ryanjmccomb]

Grand Traverse County will be a key bellwether in November for the Michigan Senate.

Our forecast currently has Abdul El-Sayed winning 50.2% of the vote to Rodgers' 49.8%.

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@LinkofSunshine nate silver is great i can’t wait his his model to come out

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@MappingFL @cloaqxed uh mapping florida this didnt answer his answer at all. do you or do you not understand that theres no such thing as prediction markets having a tough week because favorites lost because theyre calibrated

[Fred Elections @electionsfred]

@MappingFL fact you even started the tweet with “markets have had a rough week” shows that you just don’t understand math and probability and zach’s tweet went right over your head. try reading it again and learning something