Three days off sick. NQ fell 1,140 points while I wasn't writing.
Back today:
A 50% β up to 29,700, then 29,750
B 40% β fails 29,600, breaks 29,204
C 10% β 29,300 to 29,600
Small size or nothing. First day back isn't the day to size up. Where are you?
$NQ
$QQQ
$NDAQ
My highest-weighted plan today needs 1,008 points.
NQ has about 215 left after the overnight.
A 65% β 29,600 then 30,334. Two-day idea.
B 30% β 30,100 then 29,400. Needs 711 more.
C 5% β 29,700 to 30,100. Fits.
The only one that finishes today is the one I trust least.
Yours?
$NQ
$QQQ
$NDAQ
Flat today, but the plan is written.
A 55% β caps 30,360, down to 30,000-29,900
B 30% β holds 30,170, continues up
C 15% β 30,200 to 30,600
A needs 504 points of travel. The day has 391 left. The turn is today's, the target is tomorrow's. Which one are you in?
$NQ
$QQQ
$NDAQ
NQ just had its best close of the month.
I'm publishing a 65% weight against it.
A β 30,200 caps it, down to 30,000-29,900
B 30% β shallow dip under 30,104, then up
C 5% β ranges
Invalid the moment it holds above 30,200.
Am I early or wrong?
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$QQQ
$NDAQ
Missing a move costs you nothing.
Your account is identical to what it was before it happened. You're mourning money you never had.
Chasing is what turns that imaginary loss into a real one.
What did you do the last time it went without you?
$NQ $ES
$NQ $NDX $QQQ
NQ 29,868. PPI at 8:30, two red.
A 60% β through 30,000. Buying 29,900 or 29,800. Invalid below 29,777.
B 20% β rejects again. Short 29,777, target 29,400. Invalid back over 29,850.
C 20% β 29,700 to 30,000, nothing happens.
Which one are you in?
I've been wrong most of this week and published every bit of it, dated.
Then one call at 2:30 this morning paid over 5R.
That's not a comeback. That's what the distribution looks like when you keep the losses small enough to still be there.
What's your worst call this week?
$NQ
$NDAQ
$QQQ
$NQ $NDX $QQQ
Yesterday NQ broke 30,000 by 1.75 points.
Seven ticks. Then it fell 594 ticks off the high and settled 146 under the level.
A touch is not a break. This is what the difference looks like with a number on it.
Today it's 132 points away again.
Do you buy the second attempt?
I hate backtesting.
But it has the highest correlation with me being disciplined. Nothing else is close.
Last weekend it told me Monday is my worst day. I skipped it. Monday ranged 265 points, the quietest in weeks.
The part I hate is the part that works.
What did yours say?
$NQ $ES