Eliot Murray

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

Please. Do. Not. Listen. To this advice. You should not be 100% in stocks at 62. There have been 5 periods since 1880 where stock indices returned 0% FOR AT LEAST TEN YEARS. This man could suffer a drawdown and never get back to even before death.

[tekprime @tekprime99]

Dave Ramsey tells 62 year old with $3,5000,000 he can retire and running out of money would be impossible

Dave: “Do you have a 401(k) nest egg?”

Caller: “I've got 401(k)s and IRAs. No pension”

Dave: “How much is in all those accounts?”

Caller: “$3,500,000”

Dave: “What do you make a year?”

Caller: “$175,000”

Dave: “You understand that $3.5 million invested in good growth stock mutual funds, if it averaged 10%, would produce $350,000 in income without touching the nest egg. Which is twice what you make now”

Caller: “But there are still going to be years when it's up and years when it's down”

Dave: “The down years very seldom are below 5%. Hardly ever. Maybe don't take the whole $350,000. Maybe take $200,000 and let it grow by $150,000 to cover the down years. It's impossible for you to go through this money before you die”

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@DeanTTraining Took me 20 years to realize this.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@david_katunaric I hear ya, but don’t you think when you really peel back the layers, that most stocks are correctly valued and it’s hard to gain an edge? I heard this discussed by Michael green and einhorn and subsequently went on the hunt for incorrectly priced stocks… and lo, there were none.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@JTLonsdale Just a horrible take from Hawley

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@HawleyMO Did someone hack your account, Josh Hawley? It says on your website you are a Republican. If Amazon shareholders want to pay Jassy $40 mil a year, what business of that is yours at all?

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@VladTheInflator Lyn Alden remains undefeated.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@oguzerkan @grok what is the source for these congressional trades. Please cite.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@bccover @EWErickson We voted for it. We kind of got what we deserved.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@EventuallyWLTHY

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@AJA_Cortes This seems to be the exact opposite thing that kneesovertoesguy Ben Patrick teaches. See ATG split squats. Extreme knee over toe positioning and is prescribed a lot. I wonder if these guys get tendon pain because they stopped doing the extreme positions like skullcrushers.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@DRySor @tednaiman Love Ted but also have always wondered this. @tednaiman help us! Big fan here!

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@Bitcoin_Teddy I think I read through all comments. Nobody said this: “buying one chair is different than going all in on one investment with your nest egg that you will count on for the rest of your life.”

I love Saylor and I love bitcoin, but jeez, let’s all not lose our heads please.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@EventuallyWLTHY

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@EventuallyWLTHY Great job. I see $HIMS as an Uber for Pharma. one stop shop. Can’t beat that. NOT accepting insurance is a plus for customer experience. Most people are exasperated by insurance and they’re fed up. The day HIMS starts accepting insurance is the day I sell the stock.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@thesamparr There is nothing wrong with your argument. That's a great KPI to monitor. Very similar to Cash from Operations on the Stmt of Cash Flows. Good to measure both EBITDA as well as what you've described.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

One way to value $BTC Bitcoin:

It doesn't have to be winner takes all. Bitcoin and gold can coexist. Bitcoin and USD can coexist.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

@profstonge @Bsmith825 Agreed. This is indeed the question. How much of these "assets" are being utilized as "money", or a store of value. This is one way to look at Bitcoin as $1M per coin:

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

This is a counter-intuitive realization. With all other asset classes I can think of, as price goes up, the headroom on the upside COMES DOWN, and therefore the risk goes up.

But @APompliano 's assertion is right: as $BTC goes up, it becomes MORE legitimate, and less risky.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

I've been thinking a lot about @APompliano 's comment that "as the price of Bitcoin goes up, it becomes LESS RISKY." This goes against everything you've been taught about assets.

But he is right.

Here is an examination of Pomp's comment, using the Kelly Criterion...

🧵

[Anthony Pompliano 🌪 @APompliano]

Bitcoin is infiltrating Wall Street.

You can find it on balance sheets, in investor's portfolios, and new financial products.

Wall Street loves to get creative & bitcoin is the new toy they can play with.

I explain on @SquawkCNBC this morning.

[Eliot Murray @eliotmurray]

While the price has gone up, and thus the P&L ratio has come down, the Win probability goes up and the new Kelly calc shows that we should be allocating more of our bankroll than ever before to Bitcoin: