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Programmable rails are just the baseline. For AI agents to transact securely at scale, they require a dedicated clearing layer for escrow and dispute resolution.
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Same event. 73 cents on Kalshi. 71 cents on Polymarket. Arb?
The headline question on both venues looks identical. So does the resolution date. The trader fades the higher and buys the lower, expecting convergence. Six weeks later, Kalshi resolves 'Yes' on a wording that excludes the edge case Polymarket captured. The 2-cent gap was real. The convergence never came.
Meta-Market mapping is the discipline of confirming that two listed markets actually resolve on the same underlying event. Same headline can hide different contracts. The mapping has to read the actual resolution rule, the data source the oracle uses, and the cutoff time.
🧮Academic work covering over 100,000 events across ten venues (Gebele and Matthes 2026) found that roughly 6% list cross-platform, and even after careful semantic alignment, equivalent markets show persistent 2 to 4% price deviations driven by structural friction rather than disagreement.
Some of those gaps are real arbitrage held open by capital costs. Others reflect different contracts that happen to share the same headline.
Read the resolution rule before you trade the spread.
#PredictionMarkets #Polymarket #Kalshi
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