Nate Endicott

Learning about the markets since 2019 | First big win was $PLTR | Now 99% $NBIS. Always curious.

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

$NBIS is up 83.43% YTD but I still think the upside is just beginning.

Most investors would look at a stock that’s nearly doubled in six months and assume the easy gains are over.

I don’t.

I think Nebius is just getting started. This isn’t a story about chasing momentum. It’s a story about what happens when a company combines world-class engineering, customer obsession, capital discipline, and full-stack control, all aimed at solving the single biggest bottleneck in AI: infrastructure.

No debt. Over $1.4B in cash. Zero reliance on any one customer. And a founder who has built a multibillion-dollar platform before and is clearly doing it again.

Vertical integration done right

Nebius doesn’t rent space in someone else’s data center. It builds its own. The company designs custom racks in collaboration with NVIDIA. It owns and operates GPU-optimized, hyperscale data centers in Finland, Kansas City, and Iceland. A massive 300 MW facility in New Jersey is underway. A new site in Israel has just been greenlit.

All of it is purpose-built for AI workloads. Not general-purpose cloud. The result is structural cost and performance advantages. Better cooling. Faster deployment cycles. Tighter hardware-software integration. Energy efficiency on par with top-tier hyperscalers.

Most AI infrastructure providers are selling raw compute. Nebius is selling outcomes. The company offers everything from bare-metal GPU clusters to a complete AI cloud platform with integrated orchestration, inference-as-a-service, observability tooling, and API access to open-source models. Its AI Studio already serves over 60,000 developers. The cloud platform shipped nearly 50 software upgrades in Q1 alone. Kubernetes, Slurm, MLflow, DStack, SkyPilot. All supported. All optimized for AI workloads.

This is a software company disguised as a cloud platform. And that’s exactly what makes it so powerful. It starts with infrastructure. But the real moat is experience.

Execution is exceeding guidance

In their March call, management guided for $220M or more in ARR. They delivered $249M. In April, they hit $310M. For full-year 2025, guidance stands at $750M to $1B ARR. If current trends hold, that may prove conservative.

Revenue for Q1 came in at $55.3M. That may seem light, but it misses the bigger picture. ARR ramped hard during the quarter, and the timing of contract start dates muted revenue recognition. Profitability, however, showed clear progress. Adjusted EBITDA came in at negative $62.6M, ahead of expectations by over 30 percent. The core business is expected to be breakeven by Q3. Adjusted EBITDA will turn positive in the second half.

They are doing exactly what you want to see in a scaling infra business: ramping top line, managing burn, and delivering leverage, all while maintaining discipline.

Founder-led with full alignment

This is not another GPU reseller racing to undercut pricing. This is founder-led infrastructure execution.

Arkady Volozh built Yandex into a $30B tech ecosystem across search, cloud, e-commerce, and AI. He left the company over geopolitical reasons and brought hundreds of engineers with him. Now he’s building Nebius. And he’s all in. He owns a significant stake and has over 90 percent of his net worth tied to the company’s success.

hat alignment shows up in how they operate. Nebius is engineer-first, customer-centric, and focused on solving real bottlenecks with real infrastructure, not financial engineering.

You’re buying the whole ecosystem

And when you buy NBIS, you’re not just getting the AI cloud. You’re getting exposure to multiple high-upside bets.

Avride is their autonomous vehicle and delivery robotics platform. Already partnered with Uber, Grubhub, and Hyundai. Completing over 1,200 robot deliveries per day. A 100-vehicle fleet is launching by year-end. Management believes Avride is worth billions and is actively exploring third-party investment.

Toloka is their AI data labeling business, already working with Microsoft, Shopify, and Anthropic. It just secured strategic investment led by Bezos Expeditions. Revenue doubled year over year in Q1.

TripleTen is their EdTech and tech reskilling business, growing 144 percent year over year. It’s expanding across Latin America and now booking early B2B revenue.

And then there is ClickHouse. Nebius owns 28 percent of it. ClickHouse is currently raising at a $6B valuation. That makes their stake worth roughly $1.68B. If monetized, this could fund years of infrastructure expansion without touching the equity base.

Demand is just getting started

These aren’t side projects. These are strategic assets. Each could move the needle materially on value.

But the real story remains the core platform. GPU supply is constrained globally. Hyperscalers are hitting capacity limits. And demand for high-performance compute isn’t slowing. It’s compounding. Nebius is meeting that demand not with shortcuts, but with scale. They are actively deploying H200s, preparing for Blackwells, and building toward 100 MW of contracted capacity by the end of 2025.
They’re not just meeting demand. They’re ahead of it.

And the customers are coming in waves. Today it’s AI-native startups and model builders. Tomorrow it’s enterprises and frontier AI labs. Beyond that, it’s national-level AI infrastructure programs. Governments around the world are now funding their own AI initiatives and looking for sovereign compute providers. Very few companies are in position to serve them. Nebius is.

There are not many businesses in public markets with this level of control over their stack, this level of customer traction, this kind of financial position, and this kind of alignment at the top.

They are targeting 30 percent EBIT margins at scale. Adjusted EBITDA turns positive this year. Their GPU depreciation schedule is more conservative than peers like CoreWeave. They have committed to limiting dilution by leveraging their subsidiaries and investments for capital. And they have the firepower to do it. Between Avride and ClickHouse alone, there are billions in optional liquidity on the table.This is not a story of explosive revenue with no path to profitability. This is disciplined, full-stack cloud infrastructure execution with optionality everywhere you look.

And right now, it is still misunderstood.

I’m not here to guess what the stock does next week. But I am very confident that three years from now, most people will look back at this period and realize this was the inflection.

The infrastructure is being built. The contracts are being signed. The customers are scaling. The engineering team is delivering.

I will be opening a large position Monday.

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@Victhebricbz My fault, Vic the brick

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

In my opinion, Elon can’t hit 13GW+ without acquiring the power

He’s doing this best so he can acquire some neo clouds for Pennies on the dollar

$NBIS $IREN $CRWV

[Ryan Wang 🇹🇼 @ryanwang]

Neoclouds are cooked

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@DefSteverinoc Sure but this is not a name im "trading"

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

Again, not sure why this even has to be said but he’s not talking about $NBIS here

I’m losing a lot of brain cells from these doom posts..

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Pretty much.

As of the past few weeks, debt markets have almost entirely shut off access to money for any company that doesn’t have substantial revenue independent of AI data centers.

SpaceX closed $40B of debt for GPUs, but we’re investment grade and have Starlink & launch revenue.

That means the 200+ neoclouds are going to see guppy-level death and consolidation. Some will make it through, but not many.

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@beck_2g Oh don’t worry, I’m not quitting. I was here before most of these accounts and I’ll be here long after

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

I guess Elon won’t be acquiring anyone to get 13GW+ next year

$NBIS $IREN $CRWV

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

@jiahanjimliu @GillesCapital @liamdaltonjr SpaceX is not buying any neoclouds. Pointless.

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@Funmentalist @GarciaCap Yeah, super bloated now

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@MichaelVal54046 $150B

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@aibolatl2017 $CIFR wouldn’t say yes to $10b?

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@jiahanjimliu Yeah at the end of the day, he’s a ruthless businessman

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@Joseph_Invests He’s not hitting 13GW or in 14 months. He has to acquire

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@jiahanjimliu Jim, fantastic write up my friend. Enjoy your weekend 👊🏻

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@Davis_C15 @ariaradnia @wealthmatica @Sam_Badawi @TheRonnieVShow @amitisinvesting @stevenfiorillo @trevhesinvests 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@TheDividendDog Hahahaa

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

$NBIS: Fantastic write up on why bringing on token caching is HUGE for token factory

See the chart below!

[B Kad @BKad2005]

Velocity matters. After a few of us devs explicitly pushed for public endpoint prompt caching on X, $NBIS Token Factory finally shipped it within months and the Open Router volume has gone instantly parabolic (scaling past 80B daily tokens just today). Get ready for $NBIS Token Factory to now take a massive chunk of public endpoint Open Weights Tokens processed from competitors like @FireworksAI_HQ & @togethercompute

Raw serving performance like TTFT and TBT or Tokens per Minute was never the blocker for $NBIS Token Factory. Without public endpoints having input prompts with cached pricing user cost bottlenecks alongside Token Factory simply not being picked as a default routing option on routing platforms like Open Router $NBIS Token Factory for sure had a massive impact to its true potential token volume as I have highlighted plenty of times vefore.

That single engineering friction point was holding back production grade volume from providers like Open router, Vercel AI Gateway and more. With $NBIS closing the feedback loop and delivering this as fast, as they just did the instant usage spike on Open Router to $NBIS Token Factory speaks for itself. Keep and eye on this chart as this will continue to balloon.

Software + Hardware Infrastructure execution doesn't get better than this. $NBIS

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@StonkChris Fantastic call

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

@borex_investing @BKad2005 Damn right!

[Nate Endicott @EndicottInvests]

$NBIS: Cached tokens are now live on token factory!

I remember @BKad2005 calling this out initially a few months ago.

The team moves fast

[Nebius Token Factory @nebiustf]

Cached tokens are now live on Nebius Token Factory⚡

Reusing context across requests?
Cached input can help reduce costs. See cached-token usage in API responses and billing, with pricing per model.

More info: https://t.co/iYOCbZqLM2