Fortnite finally posted the odds, so I did the math. Now I get to ruin everyone’s fun with numbers.
Pirate Shop Access: 1 in 137,500 per chest
Weekly Gold Outfit: 1 in 1,562,500 per chest
The following are more likely than you getting the Pirate Shop in one chest:
• Dying in a car crash in your lifetime (1 in 101)
• Getting robbed in a given year, 2024 US rate (~1 in 455)
• A randomly selected Chicago citizen having been shot in 2025 (~1 in 1,500)
• A full-odds shiny Pokémon (1 in 4,096)
• Winning $50K on a $1 Maryland Pick 5 ticket (1 in 100,000)
• Flipping 17 heads in a row (1 in 131,072)
More likely than the gold skin in one chest:
• Being dealt a royal flush (1 in 649,740)
• Naturally conceiving quadruplets (~1 in 700,000)
• Winning $50K on one Powerball ticket (1 in 913,129)
• Flipping 20 heads in a row (1 in 1,048,576)
• Getting struck by lightning THIS YEAR (~1 in 1,222,000)
The gold skin barely beats:
• Catching a blue lobster (~1 in 2 million)
• Flipping 21 heads in a row (1 in 2,097,152)
"Just play squads during Treasure Hours." Okay. Treasure rewards are shared with your whole squad. With Nov 7's 2x boost, every time all 4 of you open a chest, that's about a 1 in 17,188 shot at the Pirate Shop.
Still more likely:
• Finding a pearl in your restaurant oyster (~1 in 10,000)
• A hole-in-one on a par 3 (1 in 12,500)
• Dying in a cataclysmic storm (hurricane, tornado, blizzard, etc.) in your lifetime (1 in 14,115)
• Getting struck by lightning in your lifetime (1 in 15,300)
• Flipping 14 heads in a row (1 in 16,384)
FINALLY less likely (was more likely than base odds):
• Finding a five-leaf clover (1 in 24,400)
• Being killed by a dog in your lifetime (1 in 33,899)
• Matching 4 Powerball numbers for $100 (1 in 36,525)
Same squad odd for the gold skin: with the 7.5x Treasure Hours boost, every time all 4 of you open a chest, that's about a 1 in 52,084 shot.
Still more likely:
• Flipping 15 heads in a row (1 in 32,768)
• Dying from a bee, wasp or hornet sting in your lifetime (1 in 42,626)
FINALLY less likely:
• Flipping 16 heads in a row (1 in 65,536)
• Being dealt a straight flush (1 in 72,193)
And the gold skin changes every week. A coin-flip chance at one takes ~1.08 million chests, which is nearly 2 chests every second for 7 days straight.
Want EVERY gold skin? Getting all 5 weekly ones from one chest each is 1 in 9.3 nonillion (9.3 × 10^30). That's ~373,000x rarer than winning the Powerball jackpot 3 times in a row.
For a 50/50 shot at all 5, you'd need ~3.2 million chests every week. Even with a full squad splitting it, that's 800,000 chests a week, about 1.3 every second, nonstop, for 5 weeks.
(Different events, same math. Death odds are US lifetime odds; crime odds are per year; Fortnite odds are per chest at normal rates unless noted. Sources below.)
"effort to erode black power" but he absolutely goes against the interests of not only his constituency, but the democratic party across the board.
so yes, fuck hakeem jeffries. schumer too.
There’s an effort underway to erode black political power in this country by blocking the election of the first-ever African American Speaker of the House.
'Obsession' star Inde Navarrette makes her SNL hosting debut, taking shots at Shane Gillis 👀
"I know its really important for Marvel that you get really fit... so every morning I put on my little w**** outfit and I hit the gym"
Ken Paxton’s former top cop on why he’s voting for James Talarico:
I spent 2 hours with James Talarico. Number one, I saw no deception. He answered all my difficult questions. He didn’t dodge anything. He hit it head on.
I have been around politicians my entire life. I served 5 governors, I’ve met 4 presidents… And James Talarico is so different than other people I’ve encountered.
I think he’s the man who needs to go to Washington DC, and Ken Paxton needs to go home.
I think if Araki ever makes a part 10, a really cool protagonist would be a JoJo who's really good with science and can tinker and build weapons like a Tesla cannon and a jetpack and he really likes peanut butter and is from the moon