Ernesto Rapetti

[Leda Sánchez Bettucc @ledaSB]

Hoy escuchaba a un dirigente de la Federación Rural hablar sobre la concentración que hicieron frente a la Presidencia y la verdad es que me dejó masticando bronca. Tienen un tupé increíble. Se rasgan las vestiduras hablando del río Santa Lucía y del "impacto ambiental" de la represa de Casupá, pero se olvidan olímpicamente de que la degradación del río no empezó por una obra pública, sino por décadas de escorrentía de nitrógeno y fósforo provenientes de la fertilización química intensiva y los efluentes ganaderos. Ese exceso de nutrientes es lo que pudre el agua y provoca la proliferación de cianobacterias tóxicas que comprometen la calidad del agua potable de todos. Pero a la FRU jamás la vas a ver movilizándose ni sacando comunicados contra el uso desmedido de fertilizantes organofosforados, ni reclamando zonas de amortiguación a orillas de las chacras. Para ellos, cualquier intento de regular el paquete químico agrícola —el glifosato, los plaguicidas, los fungicidas y toda esa mierda que termina lavándose hacia las napas y alterando la biota acuática— es "una traba a la producción". Ah, pero cuando el Estado busca almacenar agua dulce para consumo humano, de repente le brota una conmovedora sensibilidad ambientalista. Es un ecologismo de conveniencia. Salen a denunciar que la represa inundará hectáreas y destruirá el monte nativo. ¿En serio? Históricamente, la gremial ha promovido y defendido la sustitución de ecosistemas nativos por pasturas implantadas, el sobrepastoreo y los monocultivos forestales. Que la preocupación por el monte nativo les despierte de forma tan exclusiva justo cuando hay que expropiar campos para una obra pública deja en evidencia que el centro del reclamo no es la naturaleza, sino la pérdida de superficie productiva privada. Casupá no es un capricho: es una reserva estratégica para asegurar el suministro de agua potable a más de 1,7 millones de personas en la zona metropolitana cuando apriete la sequía. Reducir este debate a la afectación de unas cuantas propiedades rurales es poner el beneficio privado de un sector por encima del derecho fundamental de la gran mayoría del país al acceso al agua. Un compromiso con el medio ambiente no puede ser oportunista. Si a la Federación Rural le importara mínimamente la cuenca del Santa Lucía, sus reclamos incluirían la transición hacia la agroecología, la restricción de los agrotóxicos en los márgenes de los cursos de agua y la reconversión de los vertidos ganaderos. Usar la retórica verde únicamente para frenar la infraestructura pública de abastecimiento hídrico los deja al descubierto: no es ambientalismo, sino un escudo táctico para defender intereses corporativos. Disculpas por lo extenso para quien lo lea.

[Yishan @yishan]

If you were like me and wondering what the hell the US was doing sending a fleet to threaten Venezuela, it turns out it wasn't really drugs, it was... China and oil.

(of course it is)

Here's my reading of the rough history and how it's led up to this moment:

Venezuela has one of the world's largest oil reserves. Starting around 1920, American companies dominated Venezuela's oil industry, which really meant that the oil was extracted and sold cheaply to the US. The phrase used was "overseas gas station for the US."

Nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry began in 1976 but really came to a head when Hugo Chávez took power in 1999, ultimately forcing out foreign companies like Exxon and ConocoPhillips. In 2007, the Venezuelan government took control of the last privately run oil fields. Chávez took the oil money and used it to build a welfare system aimed at reducing inequality by providing extensive social programs like healthcare, housing, education, etc.

In retaliation, the US-led sanctions blocked oil exports, leading to unsold oil and eventually to economic collapse. Most people in the US tend to look at the collapse as being due to mismanagement and corruption ("socialism"); supporters of Chávez tend to prefer the explanation that it was economic warfare ("imperialism").

One thing that did happen was that without its own industrial production base or imports, Venezuela was unable to maintain its oil equipment. Over time, output dropped from over 3 million barrels-per-day (bpd) in the 1990s to under 1 million bpd recently.

One area, Lake Maracaibo, is estimated to contain about 50-70 billion barrels of oil. Over time, US firms have drilled over 3,000 wells in the lake, and many of them have been idle or abandoned amid the decline and sanctions.

Recently, China - now strong enough to ignore and flout US-led sanctions - signed a deal to invest over $1 billion in two of the fields in Lake Maracaibo over 20 years, aiming for 60,000 bpd output by 2027, planning to develop up to 500 wells. For comparison, current output is 12,000 bpd.

Notably, these Chinese oil transactions are settled in RMB (yuan) and directly shipped to China in order to evade US sanctions. This contributes directly to de-dollarization efforts. Venezuela is able to use this RMB in turn to pay for consumer and industrial goods from China. Currently, an estimated 85-90% of Venezuela's oil is sold to China.

Finally, the first Chinese floating oil platform arrived in Lake Maracaibo in early September to ramp up production, and is reported to have recently commenced operation.

Trump has been adamant about avoiding the type of military adventurism and regime-building (or even regime-toppling) that have characterized many of his predecessors. What could be the only reason for a Trump-approved military operation?

The public claim is "drug cartels" but if that were the case, we'd see similar deployments elsewhere. The interdiction of drug-carrying boats in the Caribbean also doesn't require Marines or land-targeting Tomahawk missiles. No, the one big geopolitical thing that Trump and this administration are willing to get out of bed for and take risky action around is China.

For those of you who paid attention in school, since the time of the Monroe Doctrine (1820s), the US has regarded the Western Hemisphere as its domain, solidly exercising influence over South America. It may have been a setback to be pushed out of Venezuela in the first place, but with sanctions in place and no buying market for Maduro (Chávez's successor) to sell to, at least the oil was still in the ground, safe for future (presumably US-led) extraction.

But now China is taking it. China doesn't really play by anyone else's rules. China is going to buy oil at the best price from the places where the US forbids others from buying it - buying oil from Russia, from Venezuela, whatever. China has essentially turned US sanctions (and now tariffs) into a trade advantage with most of the rest of the world.

And once China gets involved, it's going to do things at scale - probably meaning that the oil is going to be extracted and not available to the future US, and lots of Chinese infrastructural and consumer investment in a socialist country very close to the US.

Venezuela is not Russia, it's the United States' own backyard. The distance from Miami to Caracas is only slightly longer than the distance from Miami to New York City. To the Americans with no sense of geography, Venezuela is not in the middle of South America somewhere. It is at northern tip of South America, just south of Puerto Rico.

If China successfully helps Venezuela ramp up its oil production to what it really could be, and then pays it a lot of money for that oil, which Venezuela can then use to buy all the stuff that it needs from China and (this is a big if) then develops into a strong and independent country not reliant on US goodwill, then China has a new formidable ally pretty much right off the coast of the Gulf of America.

(Of course, I think the Soviet Union was trying to do the same thing back in the day and it didn't really work so...)

Thus, all the saber-rattling of Trump about Nicolas Maduro being a criminal probably isn't really about Maduro being a criminal (since when did any presidential administration care about other heads of state being criminals), it's that with Maduro out of the way, a more US-sympathetic leader might take the presidency and keep Venezuela from selling oil development rights (and oil) to China. There are basically constant US-backed agitators (sometimes coups and assassination attempts) to undermine Venezuelan governments unfriendly to the US.

To me, outright sending warships is a risky escalation - with potential for war much closer to US shores. With actual warships now off the Venezuelan coast and Venezuela already mobilizing up to 25,000 troops to its borders in response, it's a few short steps to Venezuela asking China to sell them weapons. Unless the US wants to jump right to a quick preemptive decapitation strike, Venezuela has time to porcupine itself up with Chinese missiles, radars, and slightly more powerful jets (China will probably not sell its J-20) like the J-10.

In a kinetic conflict, the US can probably still win, but in recent years it's been more a matter of winning without taking significant losses, and the prospect of a China-supplied Venezuelan military means it could be a bloody battle. Anything other than overwhelming victory would badly tarnish the US myth of military invincibility - and in its own backyard. The US cannot really afford (from a PR perspective) to lose even a single F-35 or a single warship, and the Venezuelan military may be less given to restraint than the Chinese military.

Well, stay away from drugs, kids.

[Ernesto Rapetti @erapettiuy]

@septimodia12 @teledoce @nataliauval @MarianoCuimbae @Hernan_Bonilla @leoturf @mauriderosa O1

[Gonzalo Tancredi @GonzaloTancredi]

Consideraciones sobre el posible impacto de un asteroide en 2032

El asteroide 2024YR4 tiene una probabilidad de 1.3% de impactar a la Tierra el 22 de Diciembre de 2032. O sea hay una probabilidad cercana a 99% de que no impacte, pero es la primera vez que se emite un alerta 🧵

[Gustavo Berriel Pareja @tavoberriel]

30/ Agosto! ✊🏼 El Complejo Bulevar sigue preguntando…

¿Dónde están?

[SLIME MOLD TIME MOLD @mold_time]

The study of obesity is the study of mysteries.

https://t.co/HVvpH9AJXD

[Runway @runwayml]

Make any idea real. Just write it.

Text to video, coming soon to Runway.

Sign up for early access: https://t.co/ekldoIshdw

[Carlos Fenollosa @cfenollosa]

After self-hosting my email for twenty-three years I have thrown in the towel 😩

Email is now an oligopoly, a service gatekept by a few big companies which does not follow the principles of net neutrality.

[Paul Fairie @paulisci]

A Brief History of Nobody Wants to Work Anymore

🧵

[Max Roser @MaxCRoser]

Research suggests that many children – especially in the world’s poorest countries – learn only very little in school.
What can we do to improve this?

My new post is out https://t.co/eyXEnZvyeX

👇 I'll write a short thread below.

[Ernesto Rapetti @erapettiuy]

@bitandbang Last LTS, and stay on that version until you change the hardware.

[Garry Tan @garrytan]

Been thinking about this meme all week

Are you the kind of person who just rolls up your sleeves and plugs the hole?

Our world needs a whole lot more of that

[Datysoc @datysoc]

Fuera de control: así está el uso policial de reconocimiento facial automatizado en Uruguay. ¿Querés saber por qué? 🧵

[Ernesto Laval @elaval]

¿POR QUÉ IMPORTA BAJAR CASOS A PESAR DE LA ALTA VACUNACIÓN?

Algunos pueden pensar que basta con la vacuna

Yo creo que es muy importante bajar el nivel de contagio y comparto datos para que lo conversemos

(Especialistas: Sin tengo errores agradezco sus correcciones)

🧵
1/

[Guillermo Paraje @gparaje]

1) Acaba de salir un artículo en Food Policy (open access) sobre el efecto que habría tenido el etiquetado frontal de alimentos sobre el empleo y los salarios reales en Chile. Aquí el link al artículo (hilo)

https://t.co/g6HNl76Y0I

[Edward Snowden @Snowden]

Many of the questions I'm getting about @SignalApp can be answered by reading this article a lot of folks missed about its founder, @Moxie. https://t.co/ejFPOFzWTm

[Paul Graham @paulg]

When @jburnmurdoch said this was "probably the best article on Covid I've read," I had to read it immediately. It's really good, as everything from @zeynep seems to be.

https://t.co/BHVQA2WNX3

[Ernesto Rapetti @erapettiuy]

Una nueva educación se abrió paso https://t.co/PKbGwAvJRe vía @ladiaria

[Yaneer Bar-Yam @yaneerbaryam]

Let's review situation with alternative testing options. There are many discussions of more available, cheaper and faster tests, including less accurate ones.

Egypt recently uses a test that is fast, available, and accurate. Results even without strong lockdown are great

[Alejandro Cuesta @Doc_AleCuesta]

Diculpen lo detallista, pero parecido no es lo mismo.
ALTO puede ser hasta algo bueno. EXCESO no hay forma de mal interpretarlo.
Son 3 años de laburo ... media pila.

https://t.co/MQkaAwStr1