Eric

I make a living using data to solve complex business problems | Capital Markets & Investments | Retail & eCommerce Supply Chain

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Inheritance. Legacy

The battles your parents once knew
May quietly pass down to you.
If you don't take a stand,
Those battles will reach for your hand;
And your children will fight them there too.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@StatiSense ₹301 is = ~₦4,500

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Monye, I know say you dey joke 😄, but private placements have never really been for retail investors. They are usually reserved for HNIs, institutional investors, pension funds, and fund managers. Na the nature of the game be that.
Even in the US, investors wey fit participate in these kinds of deals are classified as accredited or qualified investors because of the capital requirements.
The good thing be say if and when Dangote Refinery eventually lists publicly, everybody fit participate according to the size of their pocket. Na there retail investors come in. 👍🏾📈

[Eric @ericamaefule]

I hear what you’re saying, but I don’t think it’s that simple. From what I’ve seen, the tension in South Africa goes deeper than just Black vs White. There’s also real hate among Black South Africans toward other Africans like Nigerians and Zimbabweans. We’ve seen it show up in xenophobic attacks over the years. So it feels less like a clear-cut “one group vs another” situation and more like people reacting to economic pressure, fear, and unresolved history. It’s complicated, and I think reducing it to one narrative misses what people are actually experiencing on the ground.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@GaryTay5 @shanaka86 I have suggested titles already

1 - The Night Extraction: Ridge of Dehdasht
2 - Behind Persian Lines

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Bought at ₦8.20 on March 10, 2025. Now up about 300 to 350 percent in a year.

I am not a genius. It is Just data, discipline and some luck.

When we advise Gen Z to invest, we should also tell them the truth. Patience matters. I held for about 365 days. Not all my stock picks worked. Some failed badly.

Stock investing is not gambling.

Buy quality stocks. Know when to enter and when to exit. Have a clear strategy.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@mi_m3doun @TEzeike @FinPlanKaluAja1 As in ehn, people just come on X and sound like robots. The most nauseating part is keeping the "em" dashes.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Just be careful using only 2 stocks to judge expected returns. Being up 50% in MTN and Aradel is great, but that’s a very small sample.
It also reminds me of the period before the 2008 Nigerian stock market crash. Back then a lot of the rally was driven by short-term borrowing going into stocks after banks recapitalised. Banks had so much money to lend. Prices kept rising and people piled in with leverage… until the market turned.
Borrowing at ~36% means the market has to keep working in your favour. It can pay off, but leverage can also turn quickly if sentiment changes.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@Oladayo_Adenubi You also have to account for inflation differences. Nigeria’s inflation is significantly higher than the UK’s, so returns here naturally price in that risk and inflation premium.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@ChartingFor @chamath @J_Pugh_13 @dougboneparth @grok Tell us more about SPACS

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Thank God for @grok

[Grok @grok]

The image is a file photo from Sri Lanka Navy's website (https://t.co/qvJN1yDKHD) showing one of their own auxiliary/support vessels with hull marking A 422 in port.

This is **not** an Iranian warship. The ship referenced in context is IRIS Dena, a Moudge-class frigate (Iranian hull ~78 range, different profile). No Iranian vessel uses A 422. The photo doesn't match Dena's design.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

You’re judging a past legend by today’s market conditions (different rate cycles, concentration in a few mega-cap stocks, HFT, & fewer small public companies). That’s not a fair comparison.
Instead of comparing different eras, why not aim to become your generation’s hero rather than measuring yourself against his? Apples to oranges.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@Sayyourmind12 @wealthcoachomi Not entirely untrue. Those who bought TIP for example, in Q1 2025, can confidently make this claim.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@markerdragon2 @theUMreal Be careful with the math, If you go up 60% and then fall 30%, you are up 12%, not 30%.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@Jindo_1307979 999

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@certifiedjustic @DavidHundeyin Epic!!!!

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Oga Kalu, you are still stuck on this EBITDA issue. The Dangote Cem EBITDA debate has exposed how fragile the ego of Nigeria’s elite professionals can be. 😆

The real problem is that many people did not understand what EBITDA meant in the 1st place. Your initial argument focused on operating costs and power costs, and honestly, that was an embarrassing line of reasoning to engage with.

Our concern was never whether EBITDA is high or low in isolation. The issue has always been comparison. In Nigeria, Dan Cem reports about 59% EBITDA margins, while in other African markets it is closer to 19 to 23%.

EBITDA is what remains after variable operating costs are deducted from revenue. It is meant to cover interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, and still leave something for shareholders.

So the real question remains: why is it about 19% elsewhere but nearly 59% in Nigeria?

Either Nigerian consumers are subsidizing Dangote’s pan-African operations through higher prices, or interest and financing costs are so excessive that unusually high EBITDA is required to absorb them.

Either way, it points to a structural problem such as exploitative pricing in the local market driven by market dominance and a weak consumer protection framework but not operational efficiency.

[Eric @ericamaefule]

Sir, good to know you are pro Dangote and nothing can change your mind. We are also pro Dangote. The difference is that we just love asking questions and also concerned about access to affordable housing.

We need to be clear about the real issue.

Our concern is not whether Dangote's EBITDA is high or low in absolute terms. What concerns us is the size of the difference. A 59% margin vs about 19% haba!!! is not a small gap. It raises serious questions, especially based on your statement that "in other African markets, Dangote is a guest competing with Chinese and Turkish imports, so pricing there is strategic and not exploitative."

If we follow your logic, are you saying that pricing in Nigeria is exploitative because Dangote controls about 60 percent of the market?

Going back to basics, we all agree that EBITDA is the outcome of all operating cost variables plugged into revenue. That is exactly why the scale of this margin difference matters. If we say, production costs are higher in Nigeria compared with pan-african markets, and yet we return 3x their ebitda, it means either of 2 things, Dangote's managers in NG are geniuses compared with those in other African countries, or we as Nigerians are paying far more than those markets.

Yes, export earnings help with foreign exchange liquidity, but they do not explain why domestic pricing in Nigeria produces margins that are almost 3x higher. Foreign exchange availability affects cash flow and operational stability, not the level of profit taken from local consumers.

We are simply asking legitimate questions.

Are Nigerians paying exploitative prices for cement?
Are we indirectly funding Dangote’s expansion through unfair pricing in the local market?
As in the past and in the case of petroleum products, are Nigerians again subsidizing cement prices for other African markets?

[Eric @ericamaefule]

@FinPlanKaluAja1
Dr. Kalu, respectfully, your understanding of EBITDA is faulty. A high EBITDA margin signals strong operational efficiency. It means that even with high production costs in Nigeria, as you mentioned, Dangote NG operations still generates more than enough surplus to cover taxes, interest, depreciation, amortization, and other costs (Dangote's mgt does not fully control; regulatory and systemic expenses ) compared with its pan African operations.
So your comparative production costs argument failed.

Given this, the implication is clear. Either production costs are actually lower in Nigeria than in other African countries, or Dangote Cement deliberately sells at lower prices outside Nigeria, or it sells at higher prices within Nigeria.

A disproportionately high margin for the same product needs a strong justification.

Also, the idea that Pan-African margins are lower at around 19 to 20% because of tax advantages does not hold as well. Corporate tax rates across these countries are broadly similar, mostly between 25 and 33 percent. Except , Dangote enjoys tax breaks in those countries, hence the absence of the need of a substantial Ebitda to cover tax expense.

Except for interest rates which are often lower in other African countries than in Nigeria. May be, that could be a justification for the high prices in Nigeria.

Again, your comparison with the US pharma market works against your argument. Drugs are cheaper outside the U S not because of fewer regulations, but because of stricter price controls. The US allows weak price regulation, so drugs cost 3x to 4x more. Other countries force lower prices through government negotiations and tax policies.
E.g, In Nigeria, you dont pay 7.5% Vat on drugs.

High margins in Nigeria therefore suggest that Dangote has room to lower prices without additional subsidies or tax breaks. More effective solutions would be increased competition or stronger price oversight.

To be clear, I am not saying Dangote’s margins are high or low in absolute terms. The issue is that they are disproportionately higher in Nigeria compared to what the same business earns in other African countries, despite selling essentially the same product.

We are talking about access to affordable housing here.