Avi Eisenberg, US citizen, needs to be charged for fraud and theft. All members of fortressdao @FortressDAO want redemption but Avi has stolen all funds and ghosted the project. More info @avi_eisen@NewYorkFBI@NewYorkStateAG
As for $LPK: Maybe $3B-$5B seems reasonable when they fully volume ramp if I had to guess.
Feels more asymmetrical to me personally since it's just a waiting game and they have the customers for glass substrates.
Small machine supplier chokepoints usually cap out from TAM though and don't go to $20B+ unless you're ASML or hold many chokepoints like KLAC.
Not many dominant "monopolies" like these out there right before volume ramp this small:
Maybe you have stuff like:
- Aixtron (MOCVD) ~$8B
- Towa (compression bonding) ~$2B
- Techwing (memory handler/cube probes) ~$1.5B
- MSScorps (CPO inspection), but pre-ramp. $850M
- Riber (quantum MBE), very pre-ramp ~$350M
Then LPK Laser for glass core substrates (about to ramp) at ~$730M, which thematically should have more premiums than memory. (eg. major advanced packaging shift, CPO adjacent, etc).
Lot of obscure chemical monopolies I know of, but those don't get as much attention cause BOM is much lower than equipment.
But for lpk you have:
eg. “80% of customers among major global players have selected LPKF equipment”.
70% of LIDE market share target for TGV in the glass-core ramp, should be very material. (disclosure: own, the listed names above aside from techwing/aixtron, NFI).
Just kinda the path they go if you follow $AEHR at ~$3.5B now:
- <$500m: "Oh they have no customers!"
---> (probably somewhere in the middle here).
- < $1.5B: "Maybe volume comes soon!"
- $3B+ onward: "Looks like they're starting to volume ramp.
Just a lesson for the cycle of the chokepoint machine suppliers from my personal experiences.