Eric Passmore

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@KKriegeBlog Scratch the surface and it gets even better John Burgoyne wasn’t just “dynamic,” he layered in Native allies for screening and psychological pressure, ran ~25% German mercenaries, and tried to drag a supply line through wilderness that fought him harder than the Continentals did.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@JesusFerna7026 You need at least one more asset class to diversify (commodities, real estate) changes everything. Put 25% in real estate and see what happens. My site https://t.co/aTg05uKmpR does that

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@carkerpox This makes me cringe. The feedback is wonky and has nothing to do with decision quality. It’s all about managing up. Good bosses ask open ended questions, “What is the most important thing to know about your proposal?”

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@BobEUnlimited Gold!

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@bigburnerbtc @ServoWealth My favorite momentum fund is a market weighted index fund.😂 My personal investments are mostly ind large cap tech. I built https://t.co/H9bmH0rV3W for fun to try different portfolio weights. Block-bootstrap has SP500. No data for a pure momo fund.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@ServoWealth This is what I see, 50/50 portfolio. 10yr returns are lumpy.
The great thing about the small cap allocation is no negative 10 year periods (nominal returns).
Yes the years at the bottom are in the future I have a crystal ball :)

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@ServoWealth A 50% sp500 50% small cap (I don't have small-cap value numbers) is the same.
- 50/50 blend medium 12.22% avg annual return
- 100% sp500 medium 12.81% avg annual return
From https://t.co/HM3l8V4a0B calculated using rolling 10 year returns for 50 periods.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@ServoWealth This is better, at least now I know what you are talking about. I’m running 50 different consecutive 10 year periods, you are running a single linear period. The starting point you pick makes a difference.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@bigburnerbtc @ServoWealth Good point, the market structure is changing with fewer public offerings. There is more, the biggest embarrassment of 3-factor is the lack of momentum investing. In addition, the correlations don’t hold up, as data is added and time goes on the model breaks down.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@ServoWealth A new flavor of the 3-factor portfolio. You should launch an ETF.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@EllsburyNyy @Compounds365 @BobEUnlimited @Mayhem4Markets Sounds right, for this to work for OpenAI investors, the company needs to exceed that $100bn by 2030, and surprise to the upside. Current investors are thinking there is a change at $200bn in revenue by 2030.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@Compounds365 @BobEUnlimited @Mayhem4Markets Exactly Sam Altman said in the Bg2 pod ‘25 revenue was better than $13bn, and they will be at $100bn faster then most expect (Gerstner est 2030). Planned spending will likely be constrained by lack of electric power.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@joecarlsonshow @VapourTimes @spencerinvestor A better point to make is desire to minimize volatility. Real Estate performs well under a variety of economic conditions and has lower volatility. That’s why most people don’t add long-term leverage to equities. They can’t stomach the highs and lows.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@joecarlsonshow It doesn’t need to be ideological. You can invest in REITs as an equity investment, and get real estate exposure. Example vanguard VNQ. Comparing assets classes is why I build https://t.co/H9bmH0rV3W as a fun side project. It uses NYStern historical data.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@MayorJoeQuimby @alexandraandnyc If you are a long term investor and not a trader this thread doesn’t make much sense.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

@Antmage @NielsHoven This is accurate.

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

This is the debasement mindset. You need to grow faster than inflation. You need to grow at ~5% just to stay even.
- EIA gasoline series: https://t.co/i9gW06psqy
- CPI and MSPUS: https://t.co/EQCkSjHq7G and https://t.co/D97YBjl5x4
- Big Mac: https://t.co/GbUWLRS80h

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

Thread on Debasement: We've lost 65% of our purchasing power for the medium home and gasoline in the past 29 years. For Big Macs we've lost 60% of our purchasing power. In 1996 a Big Mac was $2.30 now a Big Mac is $5.79. @WarrenPies

[Eric Passmore @ericpassmore]

For Big Macs and gasoline there are no quality improvements. You get the same quality and quantify in 1996 as you do in 2024. Houses might have better amenities, but tight supply seems like a more likely pusher of cost.