When I search through the annals of financial history, there are really 3 macro traders who stand head and shoulder above the rest
Soros, Druckenmiller, Mattison
Even standing on the shoulders of giants, us mortals won’t reach greater heights than these
$hype will go to 200-250$ by q2 2027
it will flip $hood peak market cap (or at least, 60% of hood peak mc). $hood going 10x+ in a single year to 130billion mcap is normal for fintechs of this size.
$hype only 10bil market cap now. i dont think market has priced nor fully understood the ripple effects of the recent NYSE integration. this is bigger than crypto. if anything its proof of the thesis that a single ultra-ecosystem that properly uses blockchain as a stepping stone to eat all of finance, will come true.
parking 30% of my entire nw into $hype at 37.5$, happy to bid on any dips this 6months
Time-based-capitulation
this is what it looks / feels like
$BTC went from $90k -> $60k in a week and then did nothing at all for the next 7 months
as a full AI bubble ensued, and the S&P 500 made new ATHs every other day
the most valuable thing is experience,
so next time you hear someone throw that term around loosely, refer back to this very moment.
this is what it's really like.
Crypto native market are in an odd spot with current RWAs interest & alt metrics.
BTC spot anchor already got taken over by TradFi, alts have been trading like a BTC beta with no upside but double downside.
Historically, alts never performed well during cycle bear periods, except ‘22, which was more unique liquidity & ETH hype conditions driven.
I have high conviction if market continues to “sideways/lower for longer” trend, most alts will perform awful, likely nuke with supply inflation demanding excessive liquidity while BTC & RWAs dominance takes over. Handful of alts will continue to capture leftover attention, probably correlated to the dominators, if we bounce into a relief rally.
It’s like the music isn’t just silent, it completely stopped for alts for a while now
1/ I encounter many misperceptions about perpetual futures (aka “perp”). A perp is simply a futures contract without an expiration date. That's it. Most of what people think they know about "perps" (first contemplated by Robert Shiller) has nothing to do with the contract itself.
Traded both $BEAT and $FOLKS when they listed last December - same month, same setup. Three weeks ago BEAT reclaimed its ATH. FOLKS still hasn't - bounced off a dollar, reclaimed 2, chilling just under its old mini-support, top-buyers long gone. Back in. Curious if they rhyme on the way back.
Hopefully, you guys didn't bite on this. General rule of thumb is OI:price excursions should move in a 1:1 ratio. When OI increases more than price egregiously, that's a recipe for a max pain event.
Last day of June/Q2. Just spit balling here: Today, we'll see some unwinding of short positions before start of Q3. Before end of July, we'll see 52k. 52k gets tagged? Bounce to 60k. The expectation is sellers will successfully defend 60k. 60k to 52k slow bleed, then who knows. Set some 46k bids; smells of pico.
Merry Christmas, here's some genuine free alpha that you can use
Funding Rate vs Realized Drift
automation not required
most of y'all think of the funding rate like RSI; negative = oversold, positive = overbought
but you're wrong, it's way more specific