Eric Hickman

Founder, Lantern Capital. 25 yrs Treasury bonds & economics. 70%+ directional accuracy on rate calls since mid-2023. LTRNLDEI on Bloomberg.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

The Fed won't like this inflation report. Core services and shelter inside of it (the one that was supposed to fall this year by lagging the rest) continue to climb and aren't from Iran. The economy has an output surplus and the strong economy is pushing inflation up.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@TheStalwart Love it!

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@darioperkins It is happening. Fed's too loose, deficit is too high for anything else.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@byHeatherLong It is because rates were low from 9/2025-2/2026 and the 6% deficit, that's it. I could see it happening from August of last year. https://t.co/KuHDKxOIpe

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

Calling rates down AND up like this isn't done. Cycle, economy, and Fed first. Calling these had nothing to do with internals of data, micro-economics, Iran, AI, savings rate, K-shaped, wealth-effect, stock market, fiscal-fears, election, QE/QT, political Fed, Dollar, on and on.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@WarrenPies The economy is STRONG. Labor, consumer, business, housing, inflation. The Beveridge Curve implies the unemployment rate will fall to 4.0%. And it's because rates were low from 9/2025-2/2026 and a big deficit; that's it. Economy won't slow down until rates rise enough to stop it.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@LButtiglione_ @lbmacro Congrats! I'm not with you on a hike, but I sure think a couple will be priced in. The economic weakness narrative was nonsense since August of last year and pushed for every reason but macro.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

Today's excuse is that it was the World Cup as to why the jobs report was good. There is a reason every month why the report doesn't count. The economy is booming because rates were low from 9/2025-2/2026 and a big deficit, that's it. Rates are tracing the economic data (LDEI).

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@Austan_Goolsbee I was a lemon man and I don’t understand why I can’t have one now. Strange paper they came in.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

Today's Beige Book shows 11 of 12 districts growing; 96% of the GDP-weight of country. The weak economy narrative is nonsense and has been nonsense for awhile. Five recession scares over three years and no recession. The 6% fiscal deficit is the reason.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@DianeSwonk You’re on it!

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@adamestero @adamtaggart Well I feel like the hinge of the whole thing is if team Pezeshkian can overrule team IRGC to hand over the goods and stop trying to make a weapon.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@SquawkCNBC @elerianm Second Measure says yes, big May spending.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

The economy is STRONG. Not only is the LDEI high, but Q2 GDP estimates and Citi Surprise shows it too. The Conference Board's Coincident Economic Indicators (including income) show a booming economy after last year's recession scare and govt. shutdown. See green arrow below.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@greg_ip Yes, the "economy is weak" narrative is nonsense. Just from the Conference Board's coincident indicator series (including income, btw) shows strong growth into 2025 (gray arrow), then a recession scare and government shutdown (red arrow), then off to the races after (green arrow)

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@KobeissiLetter Nobody is cutting into their savings to keep up. The savings rate is how much the are adding to gigantic savings.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@Markzandi I'm sorry but you are stuck in your narrative here. The economy is doing great. Real PDFP is 2.4%, above trend. COI is strong. My LDEI is suggesting the economy is growing around 2.8% real. And it's really simple why, a 6% deficit is propping the economy up.

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

@DannyDayan5 Doing the Lord's work here. One of my biggest pet peeves .

[Eric Hickman @EricWHickman]

Inflation is going the wrong direction, the Fed will become more hawkish from today's numbers not more dovish.