NEVER FORGET:
The day after the US DOJ announced an investigation into 60 hedge funds for manipulative short selling, the TD Ameritrade Warehouse storage facility went up in flames... 🔥🤔
🚨 BREAKING: Renaissance Technologies LLC raised its holdings in shares of GameStop $GME by 376.2% during the first quarter, according to the company in its most recent disclosure with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
$GME NEW OFFER POTENTIAL LEAK
https://t.co/Ku9gRajqoG
“They have a new offer now. I mean this straight private equity thing”
We live in the most interesting of times…
$AMC $GME Warren Buffet and His Mentor Benjamin Graham 💡
Apes are INVESTORS , Investors use FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS not Charts to VALUE a Company
“They don’t agree with what “MR MARKET” aka “Market Makers” aka “citadel/virtu” has to say”
“MR MARKET….can Swing prices like a psycho everyday hoping you agree with him”
INVESTORS see the REAL FAIR VALUE and INTRINSIC VALUE of the Company from the BALANCE SHEET then divide that value per share outstanding to determine Intrinsic Value per share , Fair Value per share
And KNOW if a Company is Undervalued or Over Valued or at Fair Value per share in the Stock Market
Mr Market can swing the Market Price around fair Value MULTIPLE TIMES hoping to get a TRANSACTION 💡
And it’s DURING those times , is where they hope to get TRADERS and paint a picture via a “Chart Pattern” or “Technical Indicator” To ENTICE LIQUIDITY and FILL the ORDER BOOKS of Bidders and Sellers.
MR MARKET is looking for TRADERS not INVESTORS
MR MARKET wants to you to fall into greed and temptation rather than Certainty and Conviction.
GameStop $GME institutional ownership has increased from ~40% to nearly 50%, according to the most recently updated 13F
These institutions hold 222.8 million shares long. That is just under half of the $GME shares outstanding
What do they know?
Source https://t.co/IG0dSp7CSz
There's a lot of cognitive dissonance in the private markets right now when it comes to the relevance of public market valuations.
When public comps are high, they are used to justify private valuations. When public comps are low, they are dismissed as not applicable.
That’s why LPs don’t trust private market valuations. They tend to ride up with the public markets but not down.
That’s exactly why time has shown repeatedly that private fund valuations decline in the outer years as TVPI (paper marks) declines to match DPI (real exits), not the other way around.
It's interesting to think about what impacts one's life the most:
1. The parents you are born to
2. The country you are born in
3. The historical era you are born into
I will never lose sight of how fortunate I am to be born in, raised in, and living in the USA.
Some general comments and pattern recognition from @friedberg on the latest @theallinpod, on an emerging category of acquisitions that he’s noticed, with some mentions of $GME and Ryan Cohen being squarely in that mix and possibly setting the precedent.
"..I'll make a prediction, I think that $EBAY and $PYPL are probably the beginning of a wave of megadeals, of let’s call it, flaccid digitinal businesses that can be revived with the bluechew of cqpitql ans the right operator and I think that there is probably a big wave of this to come.."
"..And that's a massive opportunity, the question is, as a capital provider, who do you partner with to execute that operational revival of that business? You're not gonna go hire some Mckinsey consultnt to go to that work for you, its gotta be the best of the best, its gotta be the right players in the business. I think Ryan Cohen has proved his metal with everything hes done with Chewy and GameStop.."
🚨 BLACK SWAN: This Is the Subprime Crisis All Over Again
Private equity funds and similar vehicles hold shares in private companies for which no liquid market exists. Because these shares cannot be sold, the funds can assign them almost any valuation they choose until the underlying company goes bankrupt.
How do they convert these illiquid holdings into cash when no one is buying? They borrow against them. 👀
Banks know the shares may be worthless and would normally refuse to lend. The workaround is straightforward: credit-rating agencies stamp the collateral AAA+++, and thinly capitalized or effectively hollow insurance entities issue policies promising to cover the loans. Bankers understand the insurance is largely fictional. They approve the loans anyway because the transactions help them hit internal performance targets and unlock bonuses, and because no current FDIC, SEC, or Federal Reserve rules prohibit the practice. 🤯
When the loans later default, the collateral is worthless and nothing is recovered. This is the structure operating in parts of finance today an updated version of the 2006 subprime-mortgage playbook. 💥
$GME $EBAY #GameStop
If anything, GameStop exercising all of its options on eBay in a single day highlight how the stock market is unmoored from reality
5.1M volume on eBay on the day. Guess GameStop will just be getting 40M rehypothecated shares. Buying almost 10% of the company on the open market producing zero price discovery. Hilarious shit
$GME Project Slingshot
ICYMI EBAY (like GME) is heavily shorted. By buying EBAY and DRS’ing their shares, EBAY shorts get squeezed which benefits GME who owns 10% of EBAY. If shorts keep EBAY down <$125, GameStop’s $125 offer is a better deal. If shorts give up on shorting EBAY and close, EBAY rises and GameStop profits. Profits boost GME and reduce the amount of GME shares necessary to buy EBAY, and also squeezes GME shorts which further reduces the amount of GME shares required to buy EBAY.
And EBAY shorts are already in trouble… remember the 6/29 DTCC Market Disruption with 26M+ EBAY FTDs? 🤣