Japan has just elected its first female Prime Minister, a highly respected person of great wisdom and strength. This is tremendous news for the incredible people of Japan. Congratulations to all! President Donald J. Trump
(TS: 06 Oct 09:54 ET)
No mystery to #gold’s $3880 record close on Friday. #Nixon broke the #dollar’s link to gold, removing discipline on #USD creation by #banks, enabling the #FederalReserve to fund US gov’t debts until ‘The Money Bubble’ (my book title) pops & people seek safety in physical gold.
Calculations relating to #inflation are misleading, so I don't do them or use them. I focus instead on #PurchasingPower.
In Jan'80 #FearIndex = 11.6% & the fair value of #gold (I calculate annually) was $390, only 46% of its $850 peak (gold was way overvalued). The Sep 2025 Fear Index is 4.5% & gold's fair value is $10,902 (gold is undervalued).
So on a #PurchasingPower adjusted basis (not inflation adjusted) gold today would need to be $23,700 (1 / 46% * 10,902) to equal gold’s purchasing power at the Jan'80 peak. That puts the 1970s bull market in perspective.
I expect in time gold will reach fair value & probably exceed it like 1974 & 1980. The gold/silver ratio in 1980 was 16-to-1. So if the #silver price rises & ratio falls to match 1980, the purchasing power of silver today would be $1,481 ($23,700 / 16). Given that gold is undervalued, silver is undervalued too given the high ratio & is only mined at around 10-to-1 (which approximates the weight of silver in the earth's crust compared to gold that geologists say is there and yet to be mined).
Sale by #Berkshire reducing its #AAPL stake bumps #BRK.A cash to 25% of total assets, with 86% in #US gov’t debt. If no investment opportunities big enough because #equites are overvalued, maybe it’s time to pay a #dividend instead of financing soaring federal gov’t #deficits?