The 2026 NJ-09 Congressional Election, following Incumbent Nellie Pou's 5% win in this Trump +1 Seat, Rs were salivating for a pickup that represented the zenith of Trump's 2024 coalition — one which brought this longtime Dem district into competitiveness.
Republicans narrowly managed to hold the State Senate in NC winning 5 seats by less than 4% all of whom had massive swings from 2024
SD-10 Trump+21.5 -> R+1.4
SD-12 Trump+23.6 -> R+3.6
SD-24 Trump+15 -> R+0.5
SD-25 Trump+19.5 -> R+3.1
SD-43 Trump+22 -> R+1.8
In what was seen as a likely flip before election day Jamie Ager won NC-11 by just under 16% flipping 6 Trump won Counties and getting over 8,000 more votes than Caleb Rudow 2 years ago. Ager was the only Democratic House candidate to outrun Roy Cooper in his house Race.
Congressman Kevin Hern was elected to the US Senate but saw a huge drop in support in his congressional district that he's represented since 2018. He won by 26% in 2024 and carried OK-1 by just 7% this year.
Even though every Democrat won statewide on Tuesday, Bo French's racist tweets clearly led to a backlash from South Asian voters who were more likely to vote against him than other Republicans, as evidenced here in Fort Bend County.
Some counties in Kansas release precinct-level results on election night, and one of those counties is Douglas County, home to Lawrence and the University of Kansas. Douglas is the bluest county in Kansas, and it's no surprise that Hamilton and Holscher walloped here.
Congratulations to @BeauBayh for winning Marion County by the largest margin in Indianapolis history for a Democrat! Beau won a number of precincts where he was the first Democratic candidate to *ever* win them, and he dominated all over our rural, suburban and urban counties.
Abdul-El Sayed won Dearborn, Michigan, with 82% of the vote. In 2024 it voted for Donald Trump by a 43-36 margin over Kamala Harris. You can see how El-Sayed got well over 90% of the vote in a multitude of heavily Arab American precincts in the east that had backed Trump.
In central Florida's FL-09, Rep @DarrenSoto
seems to have pulled off an incredibly close win against GOP candidate @DanGreenFL.
This was the FLGOP's most brutal gerrymander, turning his district from Harris+3 to Trump +17.
2024: Trump+17%
2026: Soto+0.60%
17.6% Shift to Dems
North Carolina's 8th congressional district was the reddest in the state in 2024. Last night, incumbent Mark Harris only narrowly defeated progressive Democrat Colby Watson in a district that voted for Trump by over 19 points. #ncpol
The SC GOP showed a surprising amount of political acumen in nixing last year's proposed redistricting plan. Had they gone through with their attempted 7-0 lockout map, it easily could have backfired and yielded a 6-1 split for Dems.
Makes one wonder if southern Rs will think twice about dismantling the remaining VRA districts in GA, SC, AL, etc...
Swing from the close 2019/2023 Gov races to 2026 Senate in LA & MS.
Davis ran a little behind John Bel most places, with the Lafayette area standing out.
The Guld Coast popped out to me as a strong area for Colom--and DeSoto County (23% blue swing!).
In Miami's FL-27, Rep @MaElviraSalazar seems to have pulled off an incredibly close win against fellow TV anchor @ERodforCongress.
With a margin of R+0.46%, just 1,116 votes, this race seems to be headed to a recount.
2024: Trump+14.5 2026:
Salazar+0.46
14% Shift to Democrats
Stephen Lynch last had a primary challenger in 2020. Robbie Goldstein, a doctor, ran to Lynch's left, but was soundly defeated failing to get much traction beyond traditionally lefty Jamaica Plain leading Lynch to an easy victory
California's gubernatorial primary results were certified last week. Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton advanced to the general, though fellow Dem Tom Steyer came within punching distance of a lockout.
Here is that race, mapped by precinct (with more maps coming soon!)
Despite being eliminated 2nd, Shenna Bellows would've given Pingree her biggest final round challenge. Bellows did better than Pingree in CD-2 and Portland but wouldn't have enough to outweigh Pingree's strength in southern Maine