The ability to wrangle these immensely powerful, yet dangerously capricious, agents into a productive harness that produces high quality systems — is the software engineering challenge of this decade.
“The most important thing to focus on is whether or not the stock is accelerating or decelerating revenue slightly over the next quarter is so”
- Warren Buffett, on value investing.
Oh wait, Buffett has actually never said such a thing because it’s in fact not important at all to the long term story of a company. And if your entire analysis relies on observing simple acceleration or deceleration in a business you’re either a short term momentum investor or a lazy analyst.
It is hard to communicate how much programming has changed due to AI in the last 2 months: not gradually and over time in the "progress as usual" way, but specifically this last December. There are a number of asterisks but imo coding agents basically didn’t work before December and basically work since - the models have significantly higher quality, long-term coherence and tenacity and they can power through large and long tasks, well past enough that it is extremely disruptive to the default programming workflow.
Just to give an example, over the weekend I was building a local video analysis dashboard for the cameras of my home so I wrote: “Here is the local IP and username/password of my DGX Spark. Log in, set up ssh keys, set up vLLM, download and bench Qwen3-VL, set up a server endpoint to inference videos, a basic web ui dashboard, test everything, set it up with systemd, record memory notes for yourself and write up a markdown report for me”. The agent went off for ~30 minutes, ran into multiple issues, researched solutions online, resolved them one by one, wrote the code, tested it, debugged it, set up the services, and came back with the report and it was just done. I didn’t touch anything. All of this could easily have been a weekend project just 3 months ago but today it’s something you kick off and forget about for 30 minutes.
As a result, programming is becoming unrecognizable. You’re not typing computer code into an editor like the way things were since computers were invented, that era is over. You're spinning up AI agents, giving them tasks *in English* and managing and reviewing their work in parallel. The biggest prize is in figuring out how you can keep ascending the layers of abstraction to set up long-running orchestrator Claws with all of the right tools, memory and instructions that productively manage multiple parallel Code instances for you. The leverage achievable via top tier "agentic engineering" feels very high right now.
It’s not perfect, it needs high-level direction, judgement, taste, oversight, iteration and hints and ideas. It works a lot better in some scenarios than others (e.g. especially for tasks that are well-specified and where you can verify/test functionality). The key is to build intuition to decompose the task just right to hand off the parts that work and help out around the edges. But imo, this is nowhere near "business as usual" time in software.
Almost everyone here thinks too small.
We’re living through the biggest tech revolution in human history and its defining feature is it evolves faster than we can comprehend.
If you’re not succeeding it’s because you don’t want to succeed.
Stock picking is possibly one of the best hobbies of all time.
It’s extremely fun.
Its competitive.
There are many ways to win.
You can always improve.
If you’re decent at it, it’s life changing.
It’s one of those hobbies that is healthy both in mind and healthy financially.
I’m also a firm believer that picking stocks encourages people to invest far more than they would otherwise if they only picked retirement ETFs. The fun and competitive aspect to it encourages more focus and more deposits.
I have possibly gotten thousands, maybe tens of thousands, to take investing a little more seriously. That may be the single best thing I accomplish with my career, and I’m fine with that.
I've never felt this much behind as a programmer. The profession is being dramatically refactored as the bits contributed by the programmer are increasingly sparse and between. I have a sense that I could be 10X more powerful if I just properly string together what has become available over the last ~year and a failure to claim the boost feels decidedly like skill issue. There's a new programmable layer of abstraction to master (in addition to the usual layers below) involving agents, subagents, their prompts, contexts, memory, modes, permissions, tools, plugins, skills, hooks, MCP, LSP, slash commands, workflows, IDE integrations, and a need to build an all-encompassing mental model for strengths and pitfalls of fundamentally stochastic, fallible, unintelligible and changing entities suddenly intermingled with what used to be good old fashioned engineering. Clearly some powerful alien tool was handed around except it comes with no manual and everyone has to figure out how to hold it and operate it, while the resulting magnitude 9 earthquake is rocking the profession. Roll up your sleeves to not fall behind.
There is no other reasonable takeaway when looking at the Duolingo quarter than it was a very strong quarter by the company.
+41% revenue growth
+33% booking growth
+29.5% margin increase
+51% Free Cash Flow
Daily active users: Record high 50.5 million
Monthly active users: Record high 135.3 million
Paid subscribers: Record high 11.5 million
Subscription revenue: Record high 229 million
Future growth estimates beat expectations.
If other investors want to sell their shares, that's fine. I'll keep holding and buying.