Ethan Kessler

MPP @Kennedy_School

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

My report for the @ChicagoCouncil on Taiwan’s defense policy and politics is finally out! Not a day too late given recent news of the unity ticket between the KMT and TPP. 1/3 https://t.co/N6MCKN7s60

[Martin Chorzempa 马永哲 @ChorzempaMartin]

Every economist should read this.

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

https://t.co/1T4oat4rtu

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

Some thoughts on problems with U.S. position on Iran heading into November, responding to @robin_j_brooks on Substack. Too many analysts focusing on Brent price or Hormuz volumes, not enough on elite politics in Tehran. May be of interest @gbrew24

[Gregory Brew @gbrew24]

Excellent interview with @SanamVakil, who nails, imo, the current dynamic as it's viewed from Tehran.

[Raphael Rashid @koryodynasty]

1/ South Korea is furious at Ukraine, yesterday summoned its top diplomat and demanded an apology.

The offence? Kyiv revealed Seoul had taken in two North Korean POWs.

A country fighting Russia is now Seoul's diplomatic target.

The real story is Korean politics. A thread:

[Courtney Donovan Smith 石東文 @donovan_smith]

The best analysis I have read about the Taipei race by a wide margin (including my own half column or so on it, though planning another one soon). Another Frozen Garlic home run by Nathan Batto

https://t.co/JT1OJ22694

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@haravayin_hogh The graph where he shows those stats really cannot be unseen

[James Lin @jamestwotree.bsky.social @jamestwotree]

This Atlantic article on Taiwan has prompted harsh criticism, mostly deserved. It is riddled with problems, some of which I'll dive into. But it also asks provocative questions that I think are worth exploring in a more rigorous manner. https://t.co/1nuGVG1OZO /1

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@robin_j_brooks @WorldStrategist But the risk of escalation into new domains — ie attacks on regional bases or even NATO/homeland targets — increases in proportion to the efficacy of the blockade, no? As the US weakens Iran, won’t the latter increasingly reach for weapons it can still use?

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@JohnF_Sullivan As in just PLA or civilians too?

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@Scholars_Stage Agreed. And there are also problems with this reading specifically -- the great books can help you with C&P, but more so Plato and Nietzsche than Mill

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@kamilkazani Interesting Chinese phrase that gets at the same idea 自剖凉粉 https://t.co/lOODxcdNDq

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@brianhioe Responding to PLA vids featuring them https://t.co/Ki06Woq7H3

[T. Greer @Scholars_Stage]

There is a Kissinger revival because Kissinger was trying to answer the same question many people believe we face today: “what should American diplomacy look like in an age when America is in decline?”

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@JesusFerna7026 The Soviet Union and China were not socialist countries as Marx envisioned because they were not advanced capitalist countries first. This is true regardless of what the majority of non-Trotskyists during the Cold War believed, no?

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Enjoyed Brendan Greely's big story on petrodollars -- which debunks a lot of dated theorizing about the role oil plays in the dollars global role.

He is right -- the offshore dollar system predates the arrival of "petro" dollars and has continued just fine w/o an oil driven flow

1/

[Ethan Kessler @ethankessler_]

@teortaxesTex Will be interesting to see how much this accelerates investment into conversion kits for substitute long-range precision capability. Action-reaction https://t.co/orxMrwFoy9

[Jesús Fernández-Villaverde @JesusFerna7026]

Sam Peltzman famously argued in 1975 that the effect of safer cars on total traffic deaths is ambiguous: Safer cars mean that drivers take more risks.

I am afraid that the effect of LLMs on email will be the same. We are promised that we will spend less time handling email thanks to autonomous agents.

My fear? As the cost of sending and processing emails goes down, more emails will be sent.

Everyone has incentives to do so. An administrator at the dean’s office (one of the most dangerous people in the U.S. right now) will feel they can send many more emails requesting information from faculty. A colleague at another department might reach out to you with questions. You name it.

The bottom line? Yesterday I got nearly 200 emails (without counting spam). Let’s call it the Peltzman effect of LLMs.

[Analytica Camillus @AnalyticaCamil1]

I know this might sound a bit harsh to China analysts, but I don’t really think this should be all that surprising.

Russia already has a robust and gargantuan defense ecosystem, and Chinese defense tech is increasingly more compatible with NATO standard systems and platforms than Soviet legacy ones (remember, the PLA switched to using 155mm shells in recent years).

China’s defense industrial base really just couldn’t inject RusMil with military equipment at scale without having to undergo a massive (partially redundant) retooling process.

With Iran’s militaries, they don’t really have that problem — and if they’re willing to cut corners re financing, Iran’s militaries might very well end up being a mirror image of the PLA.

[worms cited @christapeterso]

Don’t siege Leningrad. Take it immediately