💥 @Polymarket Tracking is Now Live
⇣ Paste an event
⇣ Track a wallet
• Follow the action
🔔#DropsBot will notify you when something interesting happens - odds changes, new bets and activity from your favorite profiles.
🚩Top resolution controversies by market volume:
• $269M US Forces “Enter Iran?”
Was a brief mission enough to count as “entering” Iran?
Outcome: YES
• $242M Zelensky Suitgate
What counts as a “suit”? Media said one thing, the market ruled another.
Outcome: NO
• $7M Ukraine x Trump Minerals Deal
Critics said there was no finalized deal yet. Market still resolved YES.
• $2.25M Titan Submarine Found?
Did debris count as the submarine being “found”?
Outcome: YES
• $2.1M Barron Trump / $DJT Memecoin
The dispute: Was Barron Trump involved in or behind DJT? The ruling became controversial and later handling was challenged.
Final status: NO / later fixed for YES holders
• $133K Trump–Xi Call
Trump said the call happened. The market wanted stronger public confirmation.
Resolved: NO
🍪@willo2_Poly says he got cooked for almost $500K on @Polymarket.
He wasn’t wrong about the event.
Strategy sold $BTC before the deadline, but the SEC filing came after it.
This is not the first time Polymarket got stuck between facts, wording, and oracle logic.
🔻1,000+ disputed markets in 2026 — already more than 2025 total.
⚡️Pandemic odds moved higher in May.
🦠Hantavirus cases tied to the cruise outbreak reached Spain, the U.S. moved to block Ebola import risk with stricter travel measures, and Brazil is investigating a suspected Ebola case.
🔹 @Polymarket Events:
11% New pandemic in 2026
6% Hantavirus pandemic
10% Ebola pandemic
6% New Coronavirus pandemic
31% Ebola case in the US by June 30
🔐 Major Unlocks Coming in May
$PYTH $123M (37% of M.Cap)
$ZRO $37.4M (9.8% of M.Cap)
$H $30.6M (7.2% of M.Cap)
$HUMA $10.5M (26% of M.Cap)
$GRASS $11.4M (5.4% of M.Cap)
⚡️ @elonmusk vs @sama. Whose AI lawyer wins in court?
Elon Musk says OpenAI betrayed its original nonprofit mission.
OpenAI says Elon is trying to kneecap a rival while building xAI.
🔮 @Polymarket odds:
Elon wins the case? — 34%
Sam Altman testifies? — ~87%
Musk and Altman settle? — 30%
👀Your group chat’s foreign policy expert starter pack:
Live probabilities, price changes and instant notifications.
📡Global Conflict Radar
https://t.co/nnkZNcYgVQ
32% Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by May?
43% Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
30% Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
25% Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
10% Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by Dec 31?
🕊 Peace Deal Watchlist
https://t.co/Vvy4vT0kc0
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30? 35%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal June 30? 10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? 28%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? 50%
🇺🇸 Donald Trump Predictions & Odds
$431M+ has been traded on Trump markets on @Polymarket this year alone. Meanwhile, Trump's approval just hit a term low of 34%. 👀
88% chance Trump insults someone today
75% chance he declassifies UFO files
3% chance he renames a strait after himself
🚀JPEG market is back
Blue chip floors last week :
🦍@BoredApeYC is 9.59 $ETH +113.8%
🐧@pudgypenguins is 5.26 $ETH +53.4%
⛩ @Azuki is 1.17 $ETH +102.4%
Set up #DropsBot once, never miss a pump:
• Floor & change alerts on any collection
• Pump/Dump triggers
• Whale list activity notifications
🛢 Brent crude is back above $100.
@Polymarket odds that Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May:
• Was: 82%
• Now: 38%
🇮🇷🇺🇸 What's happening: Iran seized 2 container ships in the Strait of Hormuz on April 22. The US has maintained a naval blockade of Iranian ports since April 13, and roughly 20,000 mariners and 2,000 ships remain stranded in the Persian Gulf.
On-chain reaction:
Hyperliquid trader 0x6...836 just opened a $20.09M long, one of the largest oil positions on the platform.
🔮 What awaits crypto in 2026?
Most likely: @MegaETH token in May (91%)
Probable: @Saylor hits 1M BTC (61%) | $HYPE new ATH (54%)
Maybe: @base token (44%) | @MetaMask token (30%)
Unlikely: $ETH ATH (14%) | $BTC ATH (13%)
🔓The Major Unlocks Coming This Week
$GWEI $5.1M (2.2% of M.Cap)
$HYPER $10.1M (60.5% of M.Cap)
$SPACE $4.5M (36.6% of M.Cap)
$INIT $8.1M (45.9% of M.Cap)
$H $13.5M (7.2% of M.Cap)
🔥 @Polymarket: 70% chance Trump gets impeached before his term ends.
💥New all-time high. Up from 50% a month ago.
Key drivers:
• Rep. Larson filed 13 articles of impeachment on Apr 7
• 50+ House Democrats joined calls
• 52% of voters back impeachment in polls
Related markets:
17% Trump out as President before 2027
6% Trump repeal Presidential term limits
19% JD Vance next election winner