blue rock

my pronouns are re / tard

[Jameson Lopp @lopp]

Thoughts on BIP-361:

* I know folks don't like it. I don't like it myself. I wrote it because I like the alternative even less.

* It isn't a spec, nor is it proposed for activation. It's a rough idea for a contingency plan that needs more R&D.

* I hope it never needs to be considered for adoption.

* Ultimately, my thesis is that in the face of existential threat, individual economic incentives outweigh philosophical principles.

[nic carter @nic_carter]

overton window recap:

quantum computing is fictional tech

quantum might be real but it's 20-30 years away. no urgency to do anything

quantum is not a problem, but investors worried about quantum are a problem, so we might think about an upgrade someday

quantum might be a problem but we will just adapt when it gets closer <--- YOU ARE HERE

preparing for quantum will take years, and time to Q-day seems to be decreasing. we should start considering an upgrade

quantum progress is nonlinear, private, and unknowable, but Q-day is likely within a decade so we have to bite the bullet and upgrade immediately under conditions of uncertainty despite the costs

---

when we started, most of you were at the very top. now most of you are three or four notches down. most of you who were claiming QC is fictional or poses no risk have relented and grudgingly acknowledged it's a real concern. there are only a few holdouts in that camp. you can complain about me all you like, but i've seen you all move down the notches quite predictably. the overton window has shifted already. in a month or two you'll be at the bottom with me.

[blue rock @etherrock73]

@plur_daddy Very thorough breakdown, appreciate the thoughts